Australian Dollar/US Dollar FX Spot Rate

From August 24 to 28, a series of closely watched economic indicators will be released, mainly in Japan and the United States. On the 26th, the US July core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2 percent month-on-month, a slight pickup from the previous reading. If the view spreads that the pace of disinflation remains slow, the Federal Reserve's tightening policy stance will come into focus, making the dollar harder to sell. On the 28th, the August Tokyo core CPI, which will influence expectations for an additional rate hike by the Bank of Japan, will be released. The index excluding fresh food is forecast to rise 1.7 percent year-on-year, and if growth around 2 percent is maintained, it is likely to become a yen-buying factor. In Australia, July CPI will be released on the 26th and is expected to slow sharply to around 3.5 percent year-on-year. If it comes in below expectations, expectations for further rate hikes could recede, potentially leading to Australian dollar selling.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 4.5% in July 2026, beating market expectations and rising from 4.4% in June. The number of unemployed increased by 4,200 to 691,500, while total employment fell by 15,800 to 14.81 million, missing expectations for a 15,000 gain and marking the first monthly decline since April. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 31 points or 0.4% to 9,085 in Thursday morning trade, snapping a six-session losing streak, while the Australian dollar weakened to around $0.71 as cooling labor data reduced expectations for further RBA rate hikes.

Australia's seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, matching market expectations and marking the weakest annual wage growth since the fourth quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, wages grew 0.8%, maintaining the steady pace seen over the past four quarters. In a Wednesday address, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser issued a hawkish warning, stating that inflation remains too high and that monetary policy may need to tighten further if upside price risks materialize. Hauser cited escalating Middle East tensions, global AI-driven investment, and soft domestic productivity as core inflationary threats. The RBA has already raised interest rates by 75 basis points year-to-date, though it opted to hold its benchmark cash rate at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting. Following the RBA's comments and the wage data release, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 28 points, or 0.3%, to 9,042 in early Wednesday trading, extending its losing streak to a sixth session and touching a two-week low, while the Australian dollar retreated below $0.71 while remaining near a ten-week high.

The AUD/USD pair turned lower after a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.6965 region on Thursday, as some US Dollar dip-buying emerged. The pair is struggling near the 0.6950 level, with bears retaining control below the 100-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart.

The AUD/USD pair fell for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, reaching an over two-week low near 0.6950 after softer Australian consumer inflation figures triggered a breakdown. The decline was driven by the release of the weaker-than-expected CPI data, which intensified selling pressure on the Australian dollar.

Australia's trimmed mean core inflation rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on the 29th, missing market expectations of a 0.9% increase. The annual pace slowed to 3.6%, undershooting both the market forecast of 3.7% and the Reserve Bank of Australia's projection of 3.8%, easing pressure for additional rate hikes. Headline CPI rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 4.0% year-on-year, both decelerating from the previous quarter.

Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad sees above-target Australian inflation keeping Reserve Bank of Australia hike risks alive, with June and Q2 Consumer Price Index expected to show firm trimmed mean readings.

The Australian Dollar traded marginally higher at around 0.6976 against the US Dollar during the European session on Friday. Surging US bond yields are weighing on the pair, limiting upside potential. The move comes as markets assess the impact of rising yields on risk-sensitive currencies.

The Australian dollar moved away from a three-week top against the US dollar, sliding to the 0.7980 region during Asian trading on Friday. The AUD/USD pair remained on the back foot for a second straight day, pressured by geopolitical concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that boosted the greenback.

The AUD/JPY cross gathered strength to around 112.70 during early European trading on Wednesday. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran, along with fears of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, might support the Japanese Yen and cap further upside for the cross.

Australia unexpectedly swung into a AUD 3.02 billion trade deficit in May 2026, defying consensus market forecasts of an AUD 2.2 billion surplus. The sharp reversal follows a downwardly revised AUD 1.38 billion surplus in April, marking the nation's second trade deficit of the year and its widest since December 2015. Total goods exports tumbled 6.9% month-on-month to a four-month low of AUD 43.61 billion, entirely erasing April's 7.2% gain, driven by lower shipments of non-monetary gold, metal ores, and minerals. Total goods imports climbed 2.6% month-on-month to a new record high of AUD 46.63 billion, accelerating from a revised 0.2% uptick in April on the back of resilient domestic consumer demand. The S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 41 points to 8,680 in early trading, its third consecutive daily decline, while the Australian dollar remained under pressure below the $0.690 handle near a three-month low.

The Australian dollar struggles to hold gains against a firmer US dollar, trading below 0.6900 after China's PMI data. The AUD/USD pair failed to build on Tuesday's rebound from a three-month low near 0.6865 and faced renewed selling during Asian trading on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar is likely to extend its decline below 0.6830 against the US Dollar. The currency showed mixed performance against major peers during European trading on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia released its monetary policy meeting minutes. The minutes revealed a cautious stance, weighing on the Aussie. Technical indicators suggest further downside momentum, with the 0.6830 level acting as a key support. A break below this threshold could accelerate losses.

The Australian Dollar collapsed by over 1.20% on Tuesday as risk aversion favoured flows into the Greenback amid expectations of higher US interest rates. The AUD/USD pair trades at 0.6915 after dropping from daily highs of 0.7005.

The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in more than a year on Tuesday as traders positioned for a more hawkish Federal Reserve, while the yen strengthened after flirting with a four-decade low. The dollar index inched up to 101.25, its highest since May 2025, with Fed funds futures pricing in over an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate hike by September. The yen last traded at 161.41 after briefly weakening to a two-year low of 161.93 late on Monday, with a break above 161.96 per dollar taking it to its weakest since 1986. The euro fell to $1.1395, its lowest since August 2025, after ECB President Christine Lagarde played down second-round inflation worries, while the British pound slipped 0.2% to $1.3223 following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar slid 0.7% to $0.6951, its weakest since early April, and the New Zealand dollar was down 0.4% at $0.5689.

The Australian dollar remains under pressure against the US dollar, holding above the 0.7050 level as traders await the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The AUD/USD pair struggled to build on the previous day's bounce that was inspired by hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, and it traded with a negative bias for a second straight day on Wednesday.