Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited

Two brokers view Chularat Hospital (CHG) as entering a recovery phase in the second half of 2026. Land and House Securities maintains its 2026 revenue growth forecast at a mid-single-digit level, expecting the second half to outperform the first half, as July revenue accelerated by about 5% year-on-year, driven by general patients and government project revenue, while foreign patients are beginning to recover. The third-quarter profit is expected to recover both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, due to the high season for seasonal diseases and a trend of reduced losses at Mae Sot Hospital. The broker recommends buying on weakness with a target price of 1.91 baht. Trinity Securities notes that first-half revenue was pressured by fewer gastrectomy cases, but expects third and fourth quarters to recover seasonally. It forecasts 2026 profit of 995 million baht, up 7% year-on-year, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 2.00 baht, based on discounted cash flow with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.7%.

The Cabinet meeting approved in principle a draft royal decree to extend Social Security coverage under Section 33 to three groups of employees previously exempted: those in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry; employees of individual employers; and employees of stall-holder employers. This is expected to add 550,000 insured persons in 2026 and 1.05 million by 2030. Krungsri Securities views this as a positive sentiment for hospital groups treating insured patients, with upside to revenue in the medium to long term. Hospitals with the highest social security revenue in the first half include BCH at 38% and CHG at 30%, while RJH has 53%, SKR 36%, VIH 26%, and PHG 40%. The firm maintains a bullish stance on the hospital group, expecting profits to have passed the trough, supported by the high season and the increase in social security treatment rates. Top picks are BDMS with a target price of 25 baht and PR9 with a target price of 24 baht. BCH, with a target price of 12 baht, is the biggest beneficiary if treatment rates are adjusted.

Finansia Syrus Securities estimates CHG's normalised profit for the third quarter of 2026 at 283 million baht, up 36% from the previous quarter and 4% from a year earlier, supported by seasonality, outpatient revenue, and continued growth in social security scheme revenue. For the fourth quarter of 2026, normalised profit is expected to accelerate 8% year-on-year, driven by a higher number of insured persons and complex-disease patients. The research team has trimmed its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by 2% to 3% and lowered its target price to 1.97 baht from 2.02 baht, based on a discounted cash flow method. It noted that second-half 2026 profit will grow 15% from the first half and 6% from a year earlier. CHG is preparing to pay an interim dividend of 0.02 baht per share, with the stock trading ex-dividend on 27 August 2026.

Finansia Securities expects the medical group's normalised profit in the second quarter of 2026 to total 6.01 billion baht, down 8% from the previous quarter and down 2% from a year earlier, mainly due to slowing domestic spending and unrest in the Middle East affecting revenue from Thai and foreign patients. However, PR9's normalised profit stands out, growing 4% from the previous quarter and 5% from a year earlier, thanks to its ability to maintain revenue and control costs. Meanwhile, CHG's normalised profit is expected to grow 8% from a year earlier, the highest in the group, driven by company-specific positive factors. The research team maintains a positive view on the third quarter of 2026, expecting normalised profit to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, supported by the seasonal high season, and continues to pick PR9 as the top stock in the group, given its accelerating profit trend from strategies to increase revenue from foreign patients and complex disease treatments.

Yuanta Securities expects second-quarter 2026 earnings for the hospital group to soften both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, as Thai patient revenue remains flat amid the economic climate, while foreign patient flows from certain markets continue to be affected by the Middle East situation and the Cambodian border issue. However, three companies are set to post year-on-year profit growth: PR9, BH, and CHG. PR9 is supported by a recovery in foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar, along with complex-disease cases that boost revenue per head, while drug and medical supply costs ease. BH is expected to deliver low single-digit profit growth as foreign patient numbers begin to recover, and CHG benefits from a low base and social security revenue. For the second half of 2026, group profits are forecast to rebound both half-on-half and compared with the second half of last year, driven by the high season as Middle Eastern and CLMV patients gradually return. Meanwhile, the Cambodian border issue will have lapped its one-year anniversary in June, lowering the base for comparison and opening room for recovery. In addition, previously deferred treatment demand and a rise in complex-disease cases will support revenue per head and profitability margins. On the policy front, the government is studying a shift in the civil servant medical benefit scheme from a direct reimbursement system to a health insurance model. If implemented, this would be a medium- to long-term positive sentiment driver for private hospitals, especially BDMS, BCH, and CHG, which have broad networks and experience serving insured patients. The social security issue remains a key factor for BCH, CHG, RJH, and LPH. The risk of complex-disease revenue reversals in 2026 has diminished, while there is still upside risk from a potential increase in the capitation rate from the current 1,808 baht per person per year. We maintain a market-weight rating on the hospital group. Although second-half 2026 profits are expected to recover, renewed flare-ups in Middle East tensions could disrupt travel and cause the recovery to fall short of expectations. Our top picks are PR9 with a target price of 22.80 baht, supported by recovering foreign patient revenue and complex-disease cases as well as easing costs, which should drive above-group profit growth; and CHG with a target price of 1.95 baht, given its stronger year-on-year profit growth relative to peers, low exposure to Middle Eastern clients, and upside from social security and the civil servant benefit reform. BDMS has a target price of 24.70 baht, but its share price has underperformed the group and we expect a second-half 2026 profit recovery. For BCH, we recommend a trading strategy based on the potential for a special dividend and upside risk from social security.