HawkEye 360, Inc.

Goldman Sachs says space is becoming an institutional asset class as falling launch costs and rising private investment reshape the orbital economy. The firm forecasts the global space-based economy will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, with more than $55 billion invested in 2025 and a record $36 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Since the start of 2025, aerospace companies have raised $89 billion through IPOs, including Firefly's roughly $999 million listing, York Space Systems' roughly $629 million raise, HawkEye 360's roughly $478 million raise, and SpaceX's record $86 billion IPO. Goldman says public-market funding is critical because the next stage of space industrialization will require large upfront investment in launch capacity, satellite factories, lunar infrastructure, and data platforms.

HawkEye 360 outlined full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $215 million to $220 million and adjusted EBITDA of $30 million to $36 million during its second-quarter earnings call. Second-quarter revenue rose 87% year-over-year to $49.8 million, driven primarily by the acquisition of ISA, with international revenue of $21 million and U.S. revenue of $28.8 million including a $14.4 million ISA contribution. The company reported a net loss of $15.3 million, adjusted EBITDA of $7 million, and free cash flow of $5.4 million, while backlog stood at $292 million as of June 30, 2026. Management also highlighted a demonstration with Lockheed Martin that reduced data latency by more than 50% compared with the 2025 Talisman Sabre exercise, and said the company aims to achieve 10-minute revisit and latency within two to three years.

Morgan Stanley maintained a constructive outlook on the aerospace and defense sector ahead of second-quarter earnings, citing resilient commercial aerospace demand, improving aircraft production, and favorable long-term defense spending trends, while becoming more selective after recent stock volatility and valuation shifts. The brokerage reiterated positive views on commercial aerospace, defense, and space, highlighting durable aftermarket demand driven by sustained fleet utilization, low aircraft retirement rates, constrained maintenance capacity, and continued engine maintenance needs. It also said Boeing's production recovery is gaining momentum, with the 737 MAX running at 47 aircraft per month and further certification milestones expected to support the commercial aerospace outlook. In defense, Morgan Stanley said investors continue to underestimate the likelihood of a roughly $1.1 trillion U.S. fiscal 2027 base defense budget, arguing that supply-chain improvements and expanding missile production capacity should provide further upside for the sector. The firm also expects space companies to benefit from upcoming launch milestones, improving order trends, and NASA's commercial International Space Station procurement. Reflecting changing valuations rather than weakening fundamentals, Morgan Stanley downgraded Loar Holdings and TransDigm to Equal-weight, while cutting CAE and Voyager Technologies to Underweight. At the same time, it named FTAI Aviation as its top commercial aerospace pick, Northrop Grumman as its preferred defense stock, and HawkEye 360 as its top space investment. The brokerage also revised several price targets, lowering targets for companies including Honeywell Aerospace, VSE, Textron, StandardAero, Loar, and TransDigm, while raising targets for Heico, Curtiss-Wright, and Moog. It said the expanding universe of publicly traded aerospace and defense companies has increased investment opportunities but also requires greater selectivity.

HawkEye 360 reported record financial results for its fiscal first quarter of 2026, with revenue surging 116.5% year-over-year to $49.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 92.1% to $7.4 million, and total backlog reached $285 million. The company completed its initial public offering in May, raising $435.9 million in net proceeds, and secured a new $125 million revolving credit facility. Operational highlights included the launch of six satellites across Clusters 13 and 14 and over $100 million in new international contract awards so far in 2026, including a $75 million electronic warfare program with a European Ministry of Defense.