Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation is ahead of Archer Aviation in the race for FAA certification of their electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft. Joby conducted its first FAA-conforming eVTOL flight in early March and now has five electric air taxis in the air, including its first FAA-conforming aircraft, according to CEO JoeBen Bevirt. Archer has not yet produced an FAA-conforming aircraft, though CEO Adam Goldstein said the company is actively working with the FAA on for-credit testing this year. Investors should watch for Joby to achieve FAA Type Inspection Authorization and for Archer to build and fly its own FAA-conforming eVTOL.

Joby Aviation is making notable progress toward Federal Aviation Administration certification of its electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, having completed 20% of its work in Stage 5, the final Show & Verify stage, as of July 31, while the FAA had completed about 10% of its work. The company was roughly two-thirds of the way through Stage 4 at this time last year, marking significant progress in 12 months. In August 2026, Joby announced it was acquiring Resonant Sciences, a fast-growing defense technology company with more than $100 million in trailing 12-month revenue, adding a growing defense business alongside its air taxi ambitions. Analysts at Morgan Stanley once estimated that urban air mobility could become a $9 trillion market opportunity by 2050, with human transportation accounting for roughly $3.8 trillion of that total. Joby trades at roughly 62 times sales, leaving its valuation little room for slip-ups or surprise delays.

Joby Aviation has agreed to acquire defense technology firm Resonant Sciences for US$500 million to create a dedicated defense division. The deal will integrate Resonant's sensor, radio frequency, and mission systems technologies with Joby's existing eVTOL and autonomy platforms. Joby plans to use the acquisition to expand beyond commercial air taxi and hybrid aircraft into dual-use defense applications. The transaction highlights Joby's push to tap into defense sector spending as an additional revenue source.

Joby Aviation expects to begin eVTOL Integration Pilot Program flights in Texas in September 2026, marking a key operational test as the company works toward carrying its first passengers this year. The flights will cover routes across the Dallas-Fort Worth area over a week, progressing from pilot-only operations to nonpaying and eventually paying passengers under the eIPP framework. Joby has completed or substantially completed three of five FAA type-certification stages and was about 75% through the fourth stage at the end of the second quarter, with continued progress in the fifth and final stage. Manufacturing is scaling up, with five aircraft flying as of the second quarter, including its first FAA-conforming aircraft, and 12 more in production, while the nonconformance rate in manufacturing fell nearly 40% in the first half of 2026. Toyota and Joby formed a manufacturing joint venture in June 2026, with Toyota holding 51% and Joby 49%, and Uber plans to offer Uber Air powered by Joby through its app when service launches.

Archer Aviation's stock has fallen more than 30% over the past year as the eVTOL developer confronts regulatory, competitive, and financial headwinds. The Federal Aviation Administration has yet to approve commercial flights for Archer's Midnight aircraft, which is designed to carry a pilot and four passengers up to 100 miles. Analysts project Archer will generate only $10 million in revenue in 2026 against a net loss of $994 million, while rival Joby Aviation is expected to post $121 million in revenue and an $869 million loss, partly because Joby's Blade helicopter subsidiary already serves customers and its S4 aircraft is further along in FAA certification. Archer recently announced a planned acquisition of Boeing subsidiaries Wisk Aero, SkyGrid, and Insitu on undisclosed terms, a move that could strengthen its business but may also dilute shares and increase debt. The company trades at nine times estimated 2028 sales compared to Joby's 20 times, and its stock is unlikely to gain momentum until it secures FAA clearance and ramps up production.

Uber has partnered with and made direct investments in more than 30 autonomous vehicle companies over the past two years, taking a global approach to building its AV empire. This unexpected deal, which was announced in March 2026, could be worth up to $1.25 billion for Rivian. Uber sold Uber ATG to Aurora, Jump to Lime, and Elevate to Joby Aviation in 2020, but retained equity stakes in all of them. The company's AV deals accelerated in 2024 and now span robotaxi services, autonomous delivery, and self-driving trucks across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

Joby Aviation shares climbed nearly 7% after the electric air taxi developer finalized a multiyear commercial agreement with Virgin Atlantic. The deal makes Virgin Atlantic the exclusive airline partner for Joby's air taxi services in the United Kingdom, allowing customers to book flights through Virgin Atlantic's website and app. Joby plans to launch services from Virgin Atlantic's hubs in London and Manchester, with initial routes including Manchester Airport to Leeds and Heathrow Airport to central London. Joby will manage aircraft operations, route planning, and regulatory approvals through the UK Civil Aviation Authority, while Virgin Atlantic will support customer acquisition and infrastructure integration. The partnership also expands Joby's relationship with Delta Air Lines, which owns a 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic.

The global urban air mobility market is projected to grow from $2.16 billion in 2026 to $16.27 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.9% for the 2031-2035 period. Rising urban congestion and demand for faster point-to-point transportation are accelerating interest in eVTOL solutions. The tilt-rotor/tilt-wing platform architecture segment is expected to record the highest growth, while the private ownership and use segment is projected to grow at the highest CAGR from 2026 to 2030. Asia Pacific captured the largest market share in 2025, driven by severe congestion and government support in China, Japan, and South Korea. Key companies profiled include Joby Aero, Ehang, Archer Aviation, and Airbus.

A Motley Fool analyst recommends buying Joby Aviation and avoiding Archer Aviation in the eVTOL sector. Joby has completed over 50,000 miles of test flights, is progressing through FAA certification, and began flying its first FAA-conforming production aircraft. The company holds partnerships with Delta Air Lines, Virgin Atlantic, and Uber Elevate, and reported approximately $1.1 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of Q1 2026. Archer Aviation, while partnered with United Airlines, Stellantis, and the U.S. military, faces execution risks and relies more on partners for commercialization, with its valuation already pricing in success. The analyst views Joby as having the strongest combination of technology, certification progress, partnerships, and financial resources among publicly traded eVTOL companies.

Joby Aviation shares have dropped about 47% year to date, bringing its market capitalization to $7.5 billion, yet the company continues to advance its electric air-taxi certification and commercial plans. Joby is testing FAA-conforming aircraft in preparation for Type Inspection Authorization, has begun preparatory work with Toyota Motor for commercial production, and holds partnerships with Delta Air Lines and Uber Technologies. The company also acquired Blade Air Mobility's passenger business and is participating in a White House-backed eVTOL program that could enable early operations in some states before year-end. Morgan Stanley has cautioned that regulatory hurdles may be underestimated, but its base-case scenario projects the global urban air mobility market could reach $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050.

Toyota Motor has extended and expanded its Lexus marketing partnership with Madison Square Garden, keeping the luxury brand visible across New York's sports and entertainment venues. The stock recently closed at ¥2,945.5, with a 7-day return of 8.09% contrasting with a 90-day decline of 12.96% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 23.14%. A narrative fair value estimate of ¥2,137.79 suggests the stock is overvalued, though its price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 times sits well below the industry average of 14.7 times. The company is also pursuing an air mobility joint venture with Joby Aviation and a planned ¥3.6 billion expansion of Tacoma production capacity in Texas.

Joby Aviation stock rose as much as 11.1% on Monday, closing up 6.5%, buoyed by a broader market rally and continued investor enthusiasm over its new electric vertical take-off and landing manufacturing partnership with Toyota. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, with bullish sentiment spilling over from AI chip stocks into speculative growth names like Joby. On June 30, the companies announced the formation of Joby Toyota Aero Manufacturing Preparation Company, in which Toyota holds a 51% stake and Joby owns 49%, marking a deeper manufacturing role for the auto giant beyond its prior funding support. The collaboration is seen as a significant step toward scaling production and achieving profitability for Joby's eVTOL aircraft.

Joby Aviation and Toyota Motor Corporation have formed a joint venture to support commercial production of Joby's electric air taxi aircraft. The venture, named Joby Toyota Aero Manufacturing Preparation Company, will manufacture Joby's S4 Series eVTOL aircraft, with Toyota holding a 51% stake after buying 1.02 million shares for $1.02 million and Joby holding 49% after buying 980,000 shares for $980,000. The alliance combines Joby's electric aviation work with Toyota's production systems and aims to build commercial production capability, improve manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost efficiency, and support Joby's production expansion as it works toward aircraft certification. The joint venture will have a five-member board with Toyota designating three directors and Joby two, and the companies plan to negotiate agreements covering exclusive manufacturing supply, commercial terms, and intellectual property rights. Joby is developing an all-electric vertical take-off and landing air taxi and plans to operate services in cities worldwide.

Joby Aviation has begun flying its first FAA-conforming production eVTOL aircraft, a major step toward obtaining Type Inspection Authorization, one of the final stages before full FAA certification for commercial operations. The company has now logged more than 50,000 miles of test flights and continues to target commercial service this year. Joby was also recently selected for the White House-backed Air Taxi Pilot Program, allowing early operations across multiple U.S. states, while preparing to launch service in Dubai where vertiports are already under construction. Despite these milestones, the stock carries a market capitalization of roughly $8.5 billion with very little revenue, leaving limited room for execution missteps as the company must still scale manufacturing, build infrastructure, and prove customer demand.

Archer Aviation's stock has fallen from a record high of $17.14 in February 2021 to under $5, as the company has manufactured only two test aircraft and one full-scale Midnight eVTOL, far short of earlier production targets. The Midnight carries a pilot and four passengers up to 100 miles at 150 miles per hour, but it trails Joby Aviation's S4 in speed, range, and FAA certification progress. Despite these setbacks, Archer's indicative backlog reached $6 billion at the end of 2025 with pending orders for roughly 1,200 aircraft, and its biggest investor Stellantis plans to help ramp up production after FAA certification. Analysts expect Archer's revenue to rise from $9.5 million in 2026 to $428.4 million in 2028, giving its $3.6 billion market cap a valuation of 7 times 2028 sales, compared to Joby's $8.5 billion market cap at 19 times 2028 sales. The company's early customers include United Airlines, Abu Dhabi Aviation, and Andruil, and it aims to eventually produce 650 aircraft annually with Stellantis.

Joby Aviation is the preferred stock pick over Archer Aviation for investors seeking exposure to the electric vertical takeoff and landing market in 2026, according to an analysis by The Motley Fool. Joby Aviation reported fiscal 2025 revenue of nearly $53.4 million, a massive leap from roughly $136,000 in 2024, driven by its move toward full commercialization and integration of aviation service segments, though it posted a net loss of approximately $930 million. Archer Aviation generated its first revenue of $300,000 in fiscal 2025 but recorded a net loss of $618.2 million, exceeding its prior-year loss. Joby Aviation trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 96.7x, well below Archer Aviation's 1,680x, and its business model of flying short, in-demand routes in major cities appears more attainable after recent testing in New York City. Both companies face significant risks, including ongoing litigation, FAA certification hurdles, and the need for substantial capital to reach profitability.

Joby Aviation trades at $8.83, down 33% year-to-date, with a 12-month price target of $11.50 implying roughly 30% upside. The target hinges on FAA certification progress and a planned Dubai passenger launch in 2026. Q4 2025 results beat estimates with revenue of $30.84 million and EPS of negative $0.14, while a $1.2 billion raise pushed cash to $1.41 billion. CEO JoeBen Bevirt sold 322,019 shares at $10.38 in June, adding insider uncertainty, though Toyota's $500 million commitment and over $1 billion in international letters of intent support a bull case of $15 to $18. The recommendation is hold with medium confidence given binary certification risk and cash burn.

The Motley Fool highlights Rivian, BYD, and Joby Aviation as three electric vehicle stocks to consider buying this month. Rivian expects its cheaper R2 SUV, starting at $57,990, to boost annual deliveries to 62,000-67,000 vehicles this year and plans an even cheaper version by late 2027, with analysts projecting revenue to more than triple from 2025 to 2028. BYD, which surpassed Tesla as the world's largest EV maker with 4.6 million vehicles sold in 2025, is expanding globally and trades at 14 times this year's earnings. Joby Aviation, backed by Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber, is developing eVTOL aircraft and could see revenue rise nearly ninefold from 2025 to 2028, though it trades at 78 times this year's sales with an enterprise value of $8.7 billion.

Joby Aviation's first-of-its-kind electric air taxi demonstration in New York City in late April 2026 highlights the company's progress toward commercializing eVTOL aircraft, though shares remain down about 35% year-to-date. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate a single aircraft could generate up to $1.5 million in annual revenue if it completes multiple shifts per day at a $50 fare per ride, underpinning a multibillion-dollar opportunity if Joby scales to thousands of aircraft across hundreds of cities. The company currently targets producing four eVTOLs per year and still needs FAA type certification, meaning the bull case could take years or even a decade to materialize. Investors with long-term patience may see a tenfold return if Joby executes on its vision of an app-based air taxi service.

Archer Aviation has yet to demonstrate a piloted transition of its Midnight eVTOL, a key milestone that leaves the stock's future uncertain. The company has completed three of four FAA certification phases, joined the White House's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, and was named official air taxi provider for the 2028 Olympics, but its shares are trading around $5.50, down roughly 33% from January. While Archer has shown Midnight can fly remotely and perform conventional piloted flights, it has not publicly combined vertical takeoff, forward flight, and landing in a single piloted flight. Rival Joby Aviation has already achieved piloted transition, and the longer Archer goes without it, the more nervous Wall Street may become.

Joby Aviation is nearing key regulatory approval for its electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft while ramping manufacturing in Dayton and engaging in legal disputes with Archer Aviation. The company is positioning its Dayton site as a core production hub, aiming to scale from a handful of eVTOL aircraft to a potential run rate of hundreds per year. Joby is also guiding toward more material revenue as operations scale in markets like Dubai and through partnerships such as Delta Air Lines. The legal disputes with Archer, including claims around trade secrets and sourcing, add regulatory and reputational risk. The stock trades at $10.0, up 3.4% over the past week but down 30.4% year to date.

Joby Aviation shares could reach $20 by 2028, a 100% gain from the current $10 level, if the company secures FAA Type Certification by 2026, launches passenger revenue in Dubai and U.S. sites in 2027, and its Dayton plant ramps to four aircraft per month. The stock is down 24% year to date despite management guiding for $105 million to $115 million in 2026 revenue, signaling a transition to an operating business. Wall Street’s consensus target is $11.12, but a bull-case model projects $15.05 within twelve months and $25.75 over five years, driven by post-certification revenue scaling toward a projected $458 million. Key risks include any certification delay beyond 2026, which could force a dilutive capital raise and undermine the thesis.

Archer Aviation has become the first eVTOL company to complete Phase 3 of the FAA's four-phase type certification process for its Midnight aircraft, but the company still faces significant hurdles before commercial operations can begin. Archer has yet to complete a piloted transition flight and generates no meaningful revenue, while burning millions of dollars each quarter against a liquidity position of roughly $1.8 billion in cash, equivalents, and investments. The company aims to eventually manufacture 650 aircraft annually, though it has produced fewer than five eVTOLs to date. Rival Joby Aviation is further along in an older five-stage FAA process and has been in for-credit flight testing for over a year. Given the immateriality of Archer's current business, the stock is considered suitable only for very aggressive investors who can tolerate the risk of delays or setbacks.