LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton

Europe's biggest luxury firms are turning more positive on the crucial Chinese market as a fragile spending recovery takes shape. Chinese household consumption is stabilizing and even rebounding in some categories like high-end cosmetics, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. Earnings estimates point to a pickup in performance, with Gucci-owner Kering expected to return to sales growth in the region including China by the fourth quarter, while Burberry reported a 9% jump in retail sales in Greater China in the most recent quarter. LVMH said China appears to be stabilizing after several quarters of deterioration, and smaller players like Moncler are also well positioned. The spending boost is primarily driven by high-net-worth consumers, with the key debate centering on whether improving sentiment can broaden beyond affluent shoppers.

The jewelry business is emerging as a key growth driver for the luxury goods industry, as fashion sales continue to slow and Middle East conflicts weigh on consumer purchasing power. Analysts at Vontobel note that jewelry consistently delivers growth and boasts standout margins relative to its business size. Carole Madjo, head of European luxury goods research at Barclays, says consumers are growing tired of high-end fashion that lacks novelty, while the sustained rise in gold prices is drawing more attention to jewelry as an investment asset. This trend is reflected in the results of Richemont, owner of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, whose jewelry sales surged 24 percent in the quarter ending June, far exceeding analyst expectations. Meanwhile, LVMH, owner of Bulgari and Tiffany, is also expected to post stronger performance in its watches and jewelry division. Barclays has raised its growth forecast for LVMH's watches and jewelry business in 2026 to 8 percent from 7 percent, well above the 3 percent growth rate in 2025. This division is LVMH's third-largest business unit, accounting for 13 percent of its total revenue of 81 billion euros in 2025. Kering, owner of Pomellato and Boucheron, disclosed in April that its jewelry sales rose 22 percent in the first quarter year-on-year, the highest growth rate among all its businesses. Madjo adds that even brands with strong fashion and leather goods heritage, such as Hermès, Prada, and Gucci, are placing greater emphasis on jewelry, as it is a category delivering standout growth at this time. The market is watching earnings announcements from major luxury goods makers this week, with LVMH reporting on Monday, July 27, followed by Kering on Tuesday, July 28, and Hermès on Wednesday, July 29.

Prada, Michael Kors, and Alaïa recorded the strongest combined digital brand rankings among soft-luxury names in the second quarter, according to Bank of America's latest Brand Leading Indicator. The indicator ranks 43 soft-luxury brands based on social media followers, online searches, and website traffic, with momentum weighted at 60% and digital presence at 40%. Prada ranked first overall, followed by Michael Kors and Alaïa, while Michael Kors led three-month momentum after Google searches surged from a low base, lifting it from 33rd place in the first quarter. Prada and Alaïa were identified as the strongest brands in the first half of 2026, maintaining consistently high positions across both quarters. Chanel showed the biggest improvement late in the period, climbing from 10th in April to first in June as interest grew around Matthieu Blazy's collection, with Alaïa and Coach ranking second and third for June. Gucci's quarterly momentum ranking improved by 20 places to sixth, supported by stronger US website traffic, online searches, and promotional events, while Saint Laurent rose five positions to 16th, though fellow Kering brand Balenciaga dropped from 13th to 35th. Among LVMH brands, Loro Piana returned to the top 10 at seventh, Louis Vuitton climbed to 10th from 28th, and Dior finished 31st after Chinese search activity weakened. Swatch led hard luxury, helped by online interest surrounding its Royal Pop pocket watch collaboration with Audemars Piguet, with Jaeger-LeCoultre and Tissot placing second and third. Digital engagement across the soft-luxury sector increased 18% year over year, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of acceleration, as Google searches rose 47%, website traffic grew 39%, and Chinese Baidu activity remained down 18%. Excluding unusually strong Google search figures, overall online activity still improved by 7 percentage points from the first quarter, supporting expectations for continued luxury demand recovery led by the US and South Korea.

The Giorgio Armani Group is expected to begin a stake sale process in September, in accordance with the late designer's will. Rothschild & Co. is expected to be the adviser, given partner Irving Bellotti's longtime relationship with Giorgio Armani and his board seat at the Giorgio Armani Foundation. The will allows an initial 15 percent stake to be sold within 18 months of its opening to LVMH, EssilorLuxottica, or L'Oréal, with a further 30 to 54.9 percent possible between the third and fifth years. A market source said the heirs may consider offering a 5 percent stake to each of the three groups to ensure transparency and allow them to evaluate the company before a larger offer. The foundation would retain a 30.1 percent stake to maintain control.