Natera Inc

Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office has Natera as its largest position, worth about $865 million and 16.6% of the portfolio, according to its latest 13F filing for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Natera shares have rallied over 37% year to date, compared with a 13.9% gain for the S&P 500, driven by regulatory approval in Japan for its Signatera colorectal cancer test and strong second-quarter results. Revenue rose 37.7% year over year to $752.8 million, gross margin improved by more than 100 basis points, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.91 billion from $2.85 billion. The company is also seeking approval for Signatera in muscle-invasive bladder cancer, though shares trade at 16 times sales and insiders continue to sell. Long-term forecasts call for double-digit revenue growth and positive earnings by 2028.

Natera has announced a new collaboration that places its Latitude molecular residual disease test into a Phase 1 clinical trial for Kupando Therapeutics' lead immunotherapy candidate, KUP-101. The news follows an active stretch for Natera, including recent earnings, raised 2026 revenue guidance, and regulatory milestones in Japan. Natera's share price has returned 60.97% over 90 days and 35.44% year to date, while its three-year total shareholder return stands at 489.22%. The stock last closed at $309.93, above the most-followed fair value estimate of $282.14 but below the Simply Wall St DCF model's fair value of $607.06.

Natera reported second-quarter revenue of $752.8 million, beating analyst estimates of $662.6 million and growing 37.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS came in at a loss of $0.47 per share, better than the expected loss of $0.53, while operating margin improved to negative 10.1% from negative 20.2% a year earlier. Sales volumes rose 22.4% year over year, driven by record Signatera oncology test volumes and the launch of an enhanced Panorama prenatal test. Management cited FDA and Japanese regulatory approvals for Signatera as key contributors to clinical adoption, and gross margins improved on higher average selling prices and scaling of new products. On the earnings call, analysts questioned the sustainability of Signatera growth, pricing trends, competitive dynamics in MRD testing, women's health share gains, and the pace of the Japan launch.

Natera reported second-quarter 2026 total revenue of approximately $753 million, up roughly 38% year-over-year, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.85 billion and $2.91 billion. The company processed a record 1,044,000 tests in the quarter, including 283,000 clinical Signatera MRD units, which grew approximately 56% year-over-year. Gross margin reached approximately 65%, with a roughly 50 basis point sequential improvement excluding true-ups, while Signatera's average selling price rose to approximately $1,275. Natera also highlighted regulatory milestones such as FDA approval as a companion diagnostic and Japanese PMDA approval, and plans to invest approximately $100 million in early cancer detection development in 2026.

Natera has announced it will report second quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026, after the market close, followed by a conference call and webcast. The stock has delivered a 29.18% return over the past 90 days and a 98.96% total shareholder return over the past year, with shares recently trading at US$267.76. The most followed valuation narrative places fair value at about US$282.14 per share, suggesting the stock is roughly 5.1% undervalued, while a discounted cash flow model points to a much higher estimated value of around US$556.56 per share. Growth is being driven by increasing adoption of advanced molecular diagnostics, particularly in oncology and organ health, though risks remain if clinical trials disappoint or reimbursement policies tighten.

Natera shares have climbed 9.1% to $263.44 per share over the past six months, closely tracking the S&P 500's 7.9% gain. The genetic testing company processed 1.01 million tests in its latest quarter, with test volumes growing at an average annual rate of 19.4% over the past two years. Its adjusted operating margin expanded by 15.7 percentage points over two years to 1.9% for the trailing 12 months, while free cash flow margin improved by 70.8 percentage points over five years to 4.2%. The stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 12.9 times.

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office disclosed its top five long positions, spanning a Mexican discount grocer, two biotech firms, a semiconductor giant, and an Argentine oil producer. The largest holding is BBB Foods, a hard-discount grocer in Mexico that grew revenue 33.44% year-over-year to roughly Ps.22.86 billion in Q1 2026, with same-store sales up 16.0%. Insmed, a rare-disease pharma, saw total revenue surge 229.6% to $305.96 million, driven by its newly launched bronchiectasis drug BRINSUPRI which contributed $207.90 million in its first full quarter. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing posted Q2 2026 EPS of $4.31, beating consensus by 10.89%, on revenue of $40.20 billion, up 36.0% year-over-year. Natera, a precision-medicine company, processed over one million tests in a single quarter for the first time, with Q1 2026 revenue reaching $696.64 million, a 38.8% increase. YPF, Argentina's state-backed energy firm, swung to a $409 million net profit in Q1 2026 as shale oil production hit 205 kbbl/d, up 39% year-over-year, and lifting costs fell 42%, with its VMOS export pipeline targeting first oil in January 2027.

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller's family office, Duquesne Family Office, has made medical diagnostic company Natera its top holding, accounting for 18.1% of the portfolio and worth slightly under $613 million as of the first quarter of 2026. Natera, which specializes in cell-free DNA testing for oncology, organ health, and women's health, has quietly returned more than 72% over the past 12 months, outperforming Nvidia's roughly 24% gain. The company processed over one million tests in a single quarter for the first time in Q1 2026, reported revenue of $697 million, a 39% increase, and raised its full-year sales guidance midpoint by $120 million. However, Natera remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $208.2 million in 2025, and its R&D costs nearly doubled to $210.7 million in Q1 2026. Analysts are largely bullish, with 19 out of 22 rating the stock a buy.

Natera's Signatera molecular residual disease test has obtained Class C certification under the European Union's In Vitro Diagnostic Regulation, ensuring its continued availability across multiple cancer indications beyond the 2028 transition deadline. This certification strengthens Signatera's regulatory standing in one of the world's most stringent diagnostic markets, with potential implications for clinical trial adoption and broader clinical use in Europe. The development reinforces Signatera's role in both clinical practice and pharma trials, which many investors view as key catalysts for sustaining current revenue momentum. However, the company still faces execution risks in oncology MRD, reimbursement progress, and high R&D and SG&A spending that could delay profitability.

StockStory highlights Natera as a cash-producing stock with exciting potential, while advising investors to avoid Domino’s and IDEX. Natera, which develops genetic tests, saw tests processed grow 19.4% annually over two years, its adjusted operating margin expand by 15.7 percentage points, and free cash flow turn positive over five years. Domino’s is flagged for soft sales growth of 5.2% over seven years and an estimated 5.9% for the next 12 months, trading at 15.3 times forward earnings. IDEX is criticized for underperforming organic revenue, annual EPS growth of just 1.2% over two years, and eroding returns on capital, with shares at 25.2 times forward earnings.

Natera has partnered with Aveta Biomics to integrate its Signatera test into AVTA 30-01, a global Phase 3 registrational trial of Aveta's oral immunotherapy APG-157 for patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The trial is expected to enroll approximately 826 patients across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Australia, with enrollment beginning in the second half of 2026. Signatera will serve as a secondary endpoint to assess molecular residual disease and treatment response during neoadjuvant, induction, adjuvant and follow-up care. APG-157 is a first-in-class oral immunotherapy that has received FDA Fast Track and Orphan Drug Designations, and the Phase 3 study builds on Phase 2 results showing favorable safety and evidence of tumor control. Natera shares have lost 0.3% since the announcement, though the stock has gained 18.5% year to date against a 2.3% decline for the industry.

Natera and Aveta Biomics have announced a strategic partnership supporting Aveta's global Phase 3 registrational trial of APG-157 in locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The trial, known as AVTA 30-01, will use Natera's Signatera test to evaluate molecular response to APG-157, a first-in-class oral immunotherapy that has received FDA Fast Track and Orphan Drug Designations. Approximately 826 patients are expected to be enrolled across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Australia, with enrollment beginning in the second half of 2026. Signatera will serve as a secondary endpoint, assessing molecular residual disease and treatment response throughout therapy and follow-up. The study builds on Phase 2 data showing favorable safety, tumor control, and deep molecular responses.

The U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear CareDx's appeal in its false-advertising dispute with Natera, leaving intact lower-court rulings that denied CareDx damages over claims involving kidney transplant tests. The justices offered no explanation for their decision not to review whether CareDx was owed damages for allegedly misleading advertisements comparing Natera's Prospera test with CareDx's AlloSure test. In 2023, U.S. District Judge Colm Connolly overturned a nearly $45 million jury damages award after finding no evidence that Natera's statements actually misled customers, though he confirmed the jury's finding of false advertising. The 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals later affirmed that ruling. A Natera spokesperson said the firm was pleased with the outcome, while CareDx had argued that courts should presume deception when advertising is deliberately false.

This week brought a mix of FDA and EU approvals, layoffs, acquisitions, and clinical trial updates across the biotech sector. Ionis Pharmaceuticals secured FDA approval for TRYNGOLZA as an adjunct therapy for severe hypertriglyceridemia, while Merck received European Commission approval for Keytruda in combination with Padcev as a neoadjuvant treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Gilead's Trodelvy was cleared by the FDA for first-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, and Pfizer's IBRANCE won expanded approval for HR+/HER2+ metastatic breast cancer. Natera gained Japanese approval for its Signatera MRD test in colorectal cancer, and AbbVie's MAVIRET was approved in the EU for both acute and chronic Hepatitis C. Achieve Life Sciences received an FDA Complete Response Letter for its Cytisinicline NDA due to manufacturing deficiencies, though no efficacy or safety issues were raised. ADC Therapeutics announced a 17% workforce reduction as part of a strategic reorganization to focus on its ZYNLONTA lymphoma franchise. In dealmaking, Merck KGaA agreed to acquire Bio-Techne for $73 per share in cash, representing an enterprise value of $11.3 billion, while Ionis inked a licensing deal with Recordati for Zilganersen, an investigational therapy for Alexander disease. Passage Bio and Remix Therapeutics entered an all-stock merger agreement, and Boundless Bio and Serapha Bio also announced an all-stock merger. On the clinical front, IMUNON's Phase 3 OVATION 3 trial passed a safety review, Takeda's Zasocitinib showed superiority over Deucravacitinib in a Phase 3 psoriasis study, and Eledon reported positive long-term kidney transplant data for Tegoprubart. However, Pfizer's Sigvotatug vedotin missed its primary overall survival endpoint in a Phase 3 non-small cell lung cancer study, and MapLight's ML-004 failed to meet its primary endpoint in autism spectrum disorder, though it showed an irritability signal in adolescents. Definium Therapeutics reported positive Phase 3 results for DT120 ODT in major depressive disorder.

Natera and Eledon Pharmaceuticals have entered a strategic partnership to incorporate Natera's Prospera kidney transplant assessment test into Eledon's planned Phase 3 clinical trial of tegoprubart, an investigational therapy to prevent organ rejection in kidney transplantation. Under the agreement, Prospera will serve as the exclusive donor-derived cell-free DNA monitoring assay for the study, which is expected to enroll approximately 600 kidney transplant recipients across more than 100 transplant centers globally and is set to begin in late 2026. The trial will use longitudinal Prospera monitoring as a surveillance tool, marking the first time the test is used in a large-scale therapeutic transplant study. Prospera employs a two-threshold algorithm measuring both the relative fraction and total amount of donor-derived cell-free DNA to detect early signs of allograft injury.

Natera announced that its Signatera test has received regulatory approval from Japan's Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency for use in the adjuvant setting for colorectal cancer, making it the first molecular residual disease test approved by the PMDA. The approval was supported by evidence from the GALAXY clinical trial, part of the CIRCULATE-Japan platform involving over 150 Japanese institutions and analysis of 2,240 samples, which showed that MRD-positive patients benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy while MRD-negative patients do not. Natera expects to commercially launch Signatera for colorectal cancer in Japan by the end of 2026, pending final pricing and reimbursement. More than 150,000 people are diagnosed with colorectal cancer in Japan each year, a burden comparable to that of the United States. The Japan Society of Clinical Oncology and the Japanese Society of Medical Oncology have issued guidance recommending MRD testing in colorectal cancer.

Natera and Pirche AG have entered into a collaboration to link Pirche's pre-transplant immunological risk assessment with Natera's Prospera test for post-transplant molecular monitoring. The companies plan to showcase this integrated approach to transplant care at the 2026 American Transplant Congress, where new clinical data on Prospera's role in prognosis and immunosuppression management will also be presented. Natera, trading at $234.76, has seen a 36.6% return over the past year and a 15.5% gain over the past month. The partnership aims to connect pre-transplant risk analytics with Prospera monitoring in a single data-driven workflow, potentially influencing clinical adoption and competitive positioning in the transplant diagnostics space.

The National Comprehensive Cancer Network has updated its Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology for Bladder Cancer to recommend ctDNA-MRD testing using tumor-informed multiplex PCR technology for patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. The updated guidelines state that the Panel recommends the consideration of ctDNA-MRD testing as a tool for risk stratification and to determine the use of adjuvant immunotherapy after cystectomy in patients who have not received previous immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment using an FDA-approved, personalized, tumor-informed, multiplex PCR-NGS assay for ctDNA. This marks the first time NCCN Guidelines recognize personalized, tumor-informed ctDNA-MRD as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in MIBC, and the recommendation is supported by Phase 3 evidence from the IMvigor011 trial, which used Signatera. The guideline includes a Category 1 recommendation for Signatera-guided adjuvant atezolizumab initiated at MRD-positivity within one year post-cystectomy, representing NCCN's highest designation. Natera announced the update, noting that Signatera is based on its proprietary personalized, tumor-informed, mPCR-NGS technology and was recently approved by the FDA as a companion diagnostic for this indication.

Natera will present 21 studies, including seven oral presentations, at the American Transplant Congress from June 20 to 24, 2026, highlighting the clinical utility of its Prospera donor-derived cell-free DNA test across kidney, heart, lung, and multi-organ transplants. Among the key findings, data from the PEDAL study of 346 kidney transplant patients with non-rejection biopsy results showed that those with positive Prospera results, which occurred in 18.2% of cases, had more than six times the rate of graft loss. A separate analysis of 989 kidney transplant recipients from the ProActive study found that when Prospera donor fraction remained below 0.5%, patients had approximately 12 times reduced odds of future rejection and about 5.5 times reduced odds of future graft loss. Natera's chief medical officer for organ health, Sangeeta Bhorade, said the new data reinforce the importance of regular Prospera monitoring to guide care decisions and support longer graft life.

Natera and CytoDyn have entered a strategic collaboration to use ctDNA-guided insights for CytoDyn's metastatic colorectal cancer development program. Under the agreement, Natera will use its Signatera personalized molecular residual disease assay to evaluate clinical trial samples from CytoDyn's CLOVER Phase 2 study, focusing on ctDNA dynamics and response patterns linked to the monoclonal antibody leronlimab. The partnership also grants CytoDyn access to Natera's proprietary oncology database, which integrates molecular response data with curated electronic medical records, to analyze treatment patterns and disease progression. This collaboration follows the completion of enrollment for the CLOVER study, which is investigating leronlimab in combination with standard therapies for previously treated mCRC patients. Both companies anticipate that these combined molecular and real-world insights will provide a deeper understanding of treatment response, potentially supporting the future expansion of leronlimab into additional solid tumor indications.