The J. M. Smucker Company

All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow falling 113.52 points, or 0.21%, to 53,463.88, after the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index came in higher than expected. Investors held back trading ahead of Nvidia's earnings, the AI industry leader, due after the close. The S&P 500 closed at 7,675.70, down 0.02%, and the Nasdaq closed at 26,130.20, down 0.08%. The Commerce Department reported that the overall PCE index rose 3.7% year-over-year in July, above the 3.6% analysts had forecast, while the core PCE index rose 3.3%, in line with expectations. The data increased market expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates at its September meeting, with CME FedWatch indicating a 38.1% probability. Nvidia shares fell 1.6% ahead of its earnings release, while Meta rose 1% after reaching a settlement of up to $18 billion in a lawsuit over harm to young users. CrowdStrike gained 2% ahead of its second-quarter results. Healthcare stocks fell the most, down 1%, with Moderna down 5.8% and Intuit down 3.2% after issuing weaker revenue guidance. J.M. Smucker rose 4.3% after forecasting a smaller-than-expected sales decline. On other economic data, durable goods orders rose 1.1% in July, above expectations, and second-quarter GDP grew 1.5%, unchanged from the initial estimate. European stocks were flat, with the STOXX 600 closing at 656.41, down 0.01%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.07%, but the CAC-40 rose 0.27% and the DAX rose 0.08%. Investors are watching talks between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, a route for up to a fifth of the world's oil and gas. European bank stocks led gains, up 1%, with Deutsche Bank surging 4.3% to its highest level since 2011, and Commerzbank up 2.8% after reports that Germany's finance minister plans to discuss a potential acquisition of Commerzbank with UniCredit's CEO. Sources said the ECB is ready to raise interest rates in September to counter the impact of the war in Iran. WTI crude oil fell 0.16% to close at $82.23 per barrel, and Brent fell 0.84% to close at $87.84 per barrel.

Shares of J. M. Smucker jumped 4.5% in afternoon trading after the company reported second-quarter earnings and sales that beat Wall Street estimates and raised its full-year profit forecast. The packaged foods company posted net sales of $2.22 billion, up 5% year over year, topping the consensus estimate of $2.13 billion, driven by net price increases and a 1% rise in volumes for key brands like Uncrustables and Café Bustelo. Adjusted earnings came in at $3.24 per share, easily surpassing the expected $2.22, helped by $115 million in tariff refunds, while free cash flow rebounded to $337.3 million from negative $94.9 million a year earlier. The company now expects annual net sales to decline 1% to 2%, an improvement from its prior forecast of a 3% to 4% drop, and raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to between $10.50 and $11.00 per share, up from the previous range of $9.75 to $10.25. The stock closed at $130.81, up 4.3%, marking a new 52-week high.

Abercrombie & Fitch soared 37% after trouncing fiscal second-quarter estimates and raising its full-year outlook, with adjusted earnings of $2.42 per share and revenue up 5% to $1.27 billion, helped by tariff refunds and stronger growth at its Abercrombie unit. Intuit fell 4% after offering disappointing fiscal year 2027 guidance of $23.3 billion to $23.5 billion in revenue, below the $23.7 billion analyst estimate, though its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat expectations. Meta Platforms jumped 3% after reaching a settlement with state attorneys general in a case alleging it made its apps addictive to teenagers. Zoom Communications dropped 7% after its third-quarter forecast of $1.46 to $1.48 earnings per share missed the $1.50 estimate. Kohl's rose 2% after raising its full-year outlook, partly due to $150 million in tariff refunds, and announced share buybacks of up to $100 million in 2026. J.M. Smucker climbed 3% on fiscal first-quarter revenue of $2.22 billion, topping the $2.13 billion consensus. SolarEdge Technologies jumped nearly 8% after a UBS upgrade to buy, citing an FCC policy expected to boost market share and pricing power. Semtech rose over 8% on second-quarter earnings beat, with adjusted EPS of 71 cents versus 61 cents expected. Boston Scientific fell 5% after reporting a cybersecurity incident causing product disruptions. SAP declined 3% after a UBS downgrade to neutral, citing slow delivery of agentic AI.

Intuit shares plunged 11% in premarket trading after the financial technology platform issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $23.279 billion to $23.512 billion, below the $23.7 billion analysts expected, though its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat estimates. The disappointing outlook dragged other software stocks lower, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down over 1%, ServiceNow off more than 2.5%, and Workday and Salesforce each down 2%. Zoom Communications fell 7% after its third-quarter earnings per share guidance of $1.46 to $1.48 came in short of the $1.50 FactSet consensus. Kohl's declined 5% after reporting a 0.9% drop in second-quarter comparable sales, worse than the 0.6% decline expected, but the retailer raised its full-year outlook, partly due to $150 million in tariff refunds, and restarted share buybacks of up to $100 million in 2026. On the upside, J.M. Smucker climbed 5.6% after fiscal first-quarter revenue of $2.22 billion topped the LSEG consensus of $2.13 billion, SolarEdge jumped nearly 7% following a UBS upgrade to buy on a new FCC policy, and Semtech rose more than 5% after beating earnings estimates with adjusted EPS of 71 cents versus 61 cents expected. Box gained over 2% on revenue beat, while Boston Scientific fell more than 3% after disclosing a cybersecurity incident causing product disruptions, and SAP dropped almost 4% after a UBS downgrade to neutral on slow agentic AI delivery.

The J. M. Smucker Company is expected to beat earnings estimates when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Aug. 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.1 billion, indicating a decline of 0.4% from the year-ago reported number. The consensus mark for earnings has risen 1.4% over the past seven days to $2.21 a share, which suggests an increase of 16.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago period. SJM has a trailing four-quarter surprise of 1.5%, on average. The company expects first-quarter net sales to be roughly flat year over year, with a low-single-digit increase in net price realization offset by unfavorable volume/mix. SJM expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share to increase in the mid-teens, primarily driven by higher adjusted gross profit in U.S. Retail Coffee and lower interest expense. The J. M. Smucker currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +1.77%, which increases the odds of an earnings beat.

The American Heart Association said moderate caffeine intake appears safe for most adults and may be linked to lower cardiovascular risk. Up to 400 milligrams of caffeine per day, roughly 3 to 5 cups of coffee, is generally considered safe. Drinking caffeinated coffee without added sugar, flavoring or cream was associated with a lower risk of Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, heart failure and some irregular heart rhythms. The findings could support coffee demand at companies including Starbucks, Dutch Bros and McDonald's, as well as packaged coffee businesses such as J.M. Smucker, Nestle and Keurig Dr Pepper. Higher caffeine doses, particularly from energy shots, may raise the risk of high blood pressure and abnormal heart rhythms, which could weigh on companies such as Monster Beverage and Celsius.

The J.M. Smucker Company announced a 2% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.12 per common share from $1.10, marking the 25th consecutive fiscal year of dividend growth. The dividend will be paid on September 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of August 14. In fiscal 2026, the company generated $1.5 billion in operating cash flow and $1.2 billion in free cash flow, returning approximately $465 million to shareholders through dividends while also repaying $720 million of debt. Fiscal fourth-quarter net sales rose 6% year over year to $2.3 billion, and adjusted earnings per share climbed 20% to $2.77. For fiscal 2027, Smucker projects adjusted earnings per share of $9.75 to $10.25 and approximately $1 billion in free cash flow, though sales are expected to decline 3% to 4% due to lower coffee pricing and softer volume and mix.

The J.M. Smucker Co. has elected Douglas Guilherme to the role of Senior Vice President, Operations and Supply Chain, effective July 29. He will report to Rob Ferguson, Chief Product Supply Officer and Executive Vice President of Coffee, Pet, and Away From Home. Guilherme brings more than 30 years of global supply chain and operations leadership experience, most recently serving as Senior Vice President, Global Supply Chain at The Hershey Company. He previously held leadership roles at Procter & Gamble and served as Global Senior Vice President of Supply Chain at Ecolab.

J.M. Smucker reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and issued an upbeat fiscal 2027 earnings outlook, supported by resilient demand across its core brands. The company flagged expected mid-single-digit deflation in green coffee costs while still anticipating low-single-digit cost inflation from packaging, ingredients, and transportation. The earnings surprise and coffee cost relief reinforce the investment narrative of brand staying power and a path back to consistent profitability, though leverage, dividend cover, and insider selling remain risks. Simply Wall St community fair value estimates for the stock range from roughly US$112 to about US$260, reflecting divergent views on its upside.

The J. M. Smucker Company has outperformed the broader consumer defensive sector, with its stock rising 12.4% over the past 52 weeks compared to a 1.9% return for the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF. Shares of the $11.8 billion food and beverage manufacturer have gained 11.4% year-to-date and 9.6% over the past three months, while the ETF returned 6.3% and 1.6% over the same periods. The stock surged 10.4% on June 9 after the company issued stronger-than-expected fiscal 2027 earnings per share guidance of $9.75 to $10.25, with the midpoint of $10 exceeding analysts' consensus, and projected roughly 300 basis points of gross margin expansion to about 38%. J. M. Smucker also reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.77 and a 6% increase in net sales to $2.27 billion, driven by demand for Uncrustables, Hostess snacks, at-home coffee, and pet food. In contrast, rival General Mills has declined 27.2% year-to-date and 36.1% over the past 52 weeks. Analysts have a consensus Moderate Buy rating on J. M. Smucker with a mean price target of $123.18, a 13.8% premium to current levels.

Consumer stocks have suffered deep drawdowns in 2026, creating attractive entry points for long-term investors. The average S&P 500 stock has seen a maximum drawdown of 21% this year, with a meaningful portion of that damage landing on consumer names unrelated to AI spending or geopolitical conflict. J.M. Smucker reported fiscal fourth-quarter net sales up 6% to $2.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share up 20%, while its Uncrustables brand crossed $1 billion in annual sales. Tyson Foods beat earnings estimates in its fiscal second quarter, posting $0.87 per share against an expectation of $0.78, and raised its full-year chicken segment income forecast to as much as $2.05 billion. Hormel Foods, trading near multiyear lows at roughly 15.5 times earnings compared with a 10-year average of closer to 19 times, offers a nearly 4.8% dividend yield and has raised its dividend for more than 25 consecutive years.

UBS raised its price target on The J. M. Smucker Company to $130 from $121 while maintaining a Buy rating. BofA analyst Peter Galbo also lifted the target to $132 from $130 with a Buy rating, citing an initial fiscal 2027 outlook of $10 in EPS at the midpoint and raising the firm's own FY27 EPS forecast to $10. BTIG increased its target to $130 from $120 and kept a Buy rating after Smucker's fourth-quarter earnings beat, highlighting cost deflation, fundamental EPS growth, ongoing deleveraging, and strong free cash flow. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.77 on revenue of $2.27 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, exceeding consensus estimates of $2.64 and $2.26 billion respectively.

The J. M. Smucker Company is pursuing growth beyond mature grocery categories by expanding into foodservice channels, convenience-led formats, and premium coffee. Away From Home sales, which became a separately reportable segment in fiscal 2026, rose 15% in the fourth quarter, driven by coffee, Uncrustables, fruit spreads, and foodservice demand. The Uncrustables brand reached $1 billion in annual sales and added about 3 million households over the past year, while Cafe Bustelo grew net sales 39% in fiscal 2026 to approximately $550 million. However, fiscal 2027 sales are expected to decline 3% to 4%, and challenges remain in Sweet Baked Snacks, where segment sales fell 18%, and in pet foods, where dog snacks and lapped contract manufacturing sales weighed on results. The company plans to increase selling, distribution, and administrative expenses by about 5% in fiscal 2027, with marketing focused on Uncrustables, Cafe Bustelo, Meow Mix, and Milk-Bone, while green coffee deflation is expected to support profitability with an adjusted gross margin of about 38%.