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The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 95,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a rise of 1.6 million barrels. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for US crude futures, rose by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels, more than the 700,000-barrel decline analysts had forecast. Distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, decreased by 2.2 million barrels, versus an expected drop of 1.6 million barrels.

The United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Iran under the name "Operation Economic Outcast," with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent comparing this escalation to D-Day. The measures target five key sectors: digital assets, technology and weapons, gold, airlines, and maritime shipping, while blacklisting nearly 60 individuals and entities across multiple countries, including China and Hong Kong. This action is part of an economic war that has dragged on for nearly six months, following air strikes and fruitless negotiations. The US has shifted its goal from curbing Iran's nuclear program to toppling the regime and vying for control of the Strait of Hormuz. The success of these measures depends on China, which bought oil from Iran worth $31 billion in 2025, accounting for nearly 45% of the Iranian government's revenue. While the UAE, once Iran's largest trading partner, has suspended trade with Iran, China continues to oppose unilateral sanctions, and the US has not directly penalized Chinese financial institutions. Experts note that Iran has grown accustomed to sanctions for over four decades, and these measures may be merely a political warning, as the US is concerned about the impact on the global financial system. Meanwhile, the Iranian public is suffering from basic goods prices as high as $30 per item, nearly a third of the minimum wage, and shipping costs have surged from $3,000 to $12,000 per container. However, the Iranian government remains defiant and threatens to attack oil tankers outside the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 289.7 million barrels, its lowest level since November 1982, after a 3.7 million barrel draw last week, leaving the emergency buffer at just 41% of its 714 million barrel capacity. The drawdown is part of a planned 172 million barrel US contribution to an International Energy Agency release, and if completed, inventories could fall toward 243 million barrels, below the 252 million barrel threshold that restricts limited drawdowns under federal law. The Government Accountability Office found current effective drawdown capacity is about 2.7 million barrels per day versus a 4.4 million barrel design rate, with low cavern inventories contributing to limitations. Refilling the reserve would require buying roughly 200 million barrels, representing up to $18 billion in crude demand at $90 per barrel, a direct tailwind for upstream producers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The Energy Information Administration expects Middle Eastern production to return closer to pre-conflict levels in early 2027, but still sees about 600,000 barrels per day of disruption through the end of next year, while other chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Turkish Straits remain vulnerable to disruption.

IRPC expects a bright second-half performance, supported by refining margins and crack spreads holding at high levels, with crude oil prices estimated to move in a range of 80 to 90 dollars per barrel, helping EBITDA improve. Miss Thosaeng Chaiprawat, Senior Vice President of Accounting and Finance, said during an earnings call that refining margins in the first half were high, especially in the second quarter of 2026 at 15 dollars per barrel, and the second half is still expected to be affected by unrest in the Middle East that is hitting global refinery supply. If the situation drags on, refining margins will remain high and close to the second quarter of 2026, while crude premiums stand at 17 dollars per barrel and crack spreads are very high, continuing to support the company's gross refining margin. Crude oil prices are expected to stay elevated at around 80 to 90 dollars per barrel, and if the situation eases they could fall to 70 to 80 dollars per barrel. The company manages risk by keeping oil inventories as low as possible and using forward contracts. Capital expenditure for 2026 to 2028 is about 3 billion baht per year, mostly for refinery improvements, with no large investment plans beyond the 4R+ strategic plan. The company will reduce the share of revenue from volatile businesses by expanding into high-value products such as medical hub, IT, materials and construction, while refining and petrochemicals remain core businesses. On industrial estate plans, the company still has land remaining in its estate in Rayong province and is studying a data center business. At the same time, the company is considering an interim dividend and seeking board approval, with a policy to pay no less than 25 percent of annual net profit.

PTT reported on oil market conditions for the week of 24–28 August 2026, with Brent crude averaging 92.34 dollars per barrel, up 4.10 dollars, while West Texas Intermediate stood at 85.83 dollars per barrel, up 3.38 dollars, and Dubai crude at 93.03 dollars per barrel, up 4.42 dollars. The key supporting factor came from tensions between the United States and Iran, as the US prepared to impose sanctions on Iran and its trading partners to pressure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatened that it might attack other oil transport routes if any country cooperated with the US, and the Iranian parliament approved in principle the collection of fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of Energy stated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 8 million barrels per day during 16–22 August 2026.

Iran threatens to seize ships, raising pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. Amid escalating tensions, China has declared it will firmly protect its relations with Iran, while warning the United States not to interfere and vowing to retaliate against sanctions. Meanwhile, President Trump aims to cut off Iran's economic lifeline, with China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Iraq, and India at risk of feeling the impact.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on the 25th that it will change the procurement route for Middle East crude oil to one that passes around the Cape of Good Hope and transits the Suez Canal. It will take about 55 days to reach Japan, longer than the previous route, but the ministry chose a safer sea lane because tensions in the Middle East continue. It will forgo additional reserve releases in September and October, and because arrivals in Japan will be delayed by about 30 days due to the route change, it will use the reserve release already decided for September and cover the full required volume in October via routes other than the Strait of Hormuz. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryoji Akazawa stressed at a press conference after a cabinet meeting on the 25th that there is no problem with procurement and that the necessary volume for Japan as a whole is being secured.

Yuanta Securities said energy and petrochemical stocks still face uncertainty from the direction of US-Iran negotiations, as the chances of reaching a short-term deal remain unclear. Meanwhile, WTI and Brent crude prices rose for a second straight week, supporting PTT and BCP as standout picks on their high dividend outlook. Some petrochemical spreads have begun to recover, but the overall picture still requires close monitoring of supply conditions and geopolitical factors. Weekly WTI and Brent crude prices closed up 6 to 7 percent week on week, rising for a second consecutive week after the MOU timeframe ended and Iran and the United States had no plans to extend further talks. The United States and the UAE also announced additional economic pressure measures against Iran. Singapore refining margins closed down 14 percent week on week at 17.3 US dollars per barrel, falling for a third week as regional supply increased after refineries in Taiwan and China resumed production.

Thaweesuk Thammasak, an independent scholar of international economics, said at a Thun Hoon seminar that US sanctions on Iran have almost no effect because Iran has been sanctioned for 37 years and has already adapted. Iran has destroyed more than 80% of the main US bases in the Middle East and shot down more than 50 US refueling aircraft in Saudi Arabia, forcing the US to retreat to Jordan and making it unable to fly to Iran. The only remaining option is nuclear, but that is checked by Russia, China, and North Korea. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have been closed, causing a global oil shortage and oil prices will surge this October, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve having only 14 days of supply left. Thaweesuk estimates that Iran is attacking the heart of the US by pushing bond yields higher, until the US has to intervene by increasing the auction size for buying its own bonds, with BlackRock helping manage the secondary market amid foreign selling of long-term bonds. If bond yields break above 6%, it will lead to a global stock market plunge and the Fed will have to cut rates to 0% immediately, which is an opportunity to buy cheap long-term bonds and sell for profit when prices rebound. For the Thai economy, Thaweesuk sees GDP slowing and staying sluggish because the government lacks a structural reform plan, with 2028 possibly as bad as 2027, and attracting data centers does not help spread income to the grassroots. He recommends watching stocks in the photonics supply chain such as Corning, Coherent, and Fibernet, along with trends in space technology and quantum computing where China is the leader.

Iranian crude shipments to Asia have already nearly dried up, and with the United States poised to announce new sanctions, prices for Iranian crude bound for Asia have climbed to their highest levels in years. Iran's currency, the rial, fell to a record low of 1,992,000 per dollar in the unofficial market on the 24th, bringing its decline to 4.5% since President Trump declared the strongest economic campaign last week. Chinese private refiners, which have bought most of Iran's exported crude, have seen Iranian crude supply in Asia almost disappear in recent weeks, with offered prices swinging from a discount to global benchmarks to a premium of around 4 dollars per barrel. According to research firm Kpler, crude held in waters east of the Malay Peninsula now totals only 40 million barrels, with just 4 million barrels estimated to be unsold. Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to announce on the 24th a plan of unprecedented scale to completely isolate Iran economically, with banks that finance Chinese oil refiners and related companies likely to be targeted.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices rose for a sixth straight session after the United States prepared to announce a new round of sanctions on Iran. West Texas Intermediate stood at 87.06 dollars a barrel, up 0.23 dollars, while Brent stood at 94.39 dollars a barrel, up 0.61 dollars. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States would announce details of economic sanctions against Iran on Monday, August 24, 2026, with President Donald Trump calling the plan Economic D-Day. The measures could extend to countries with trade ties to Iran, including China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil. Kpler said around 41 million barrels of Iranian crude remained stuck near the Strait of Hormuz, making deliveries to China likely to fall significantly. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported that the number of US oil rigs fell by 3 to 452, while natural gas rigs declined by 1 to 127.

The United States is preparing to announce the largest sanctions on Iran in world history, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to hold a press conference on Monday, according to CNBC. Bessent said the US will use all its power against any country that does not stop doing business with Iran, while calling on allies and the world to choose sides between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump said last week that the US will use the most crushing economic action ever used against any country on Iran, and will impose severe financial punishment on countries that help Iran evade sanctions. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded that Iran has ways to cope with the negative impact of economic war and can easily build economic relations with other countries. Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said Iran still has significant disruptive capability, and it remains unclear whether increased economic pressure will change Tehran's behavior.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Administration announced that vessels violating regulations for passage through the Strait of Hormuz will face future transit restrictions. These measures include fines, detention, or seizure of vessels. The agency also called on cargo owners shipping to and from the Persian Gulf to check the list of non-compliant vessels on its website before chartering ships. Meanwhile, the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of Iran's parliament approved an article in a draft plan to secure the strait, which would allow Iran to charge fees for navigation services, environmental services, refueling under special conditions, insurance, and security services provided in this waterway. Iran has escalated control of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, ordering a ban on safe passage for vessels owned by Israel and the United States or linked to the two countries.

Crude oil prices rose on Friday after President Donald Trump threatened sanctions against Iran's trading partners. West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery closed at 87.06 dollars a barrel, up 23 cents, while North Sea Brent crude for October delivery closed at 94.39 dollars a barrel, up 61 cents. Over the past week, Brent crude rose 6.39 percent, while WTI gained 5.66 percent. But this morning oil prices fell about 1 percent on profit-taking before the United States announces additional sanctions on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference on Monday US time after announcing that the United States will impose the toughest sanctions in history on Iran. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada will retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs, effective September 8, after the United States and Canada failed to reach a trade agreement. The tariff measures cover about 20 billion dollars' worth of Canadian imports, including wine, furniture, dairy products, cement, clothing, fishing rods, and hockey equipment. Meanwhile, a small power plant in the United Kingdom shut down for four days in July after being targeted in a cyberattack by hackers linked to Iran, according to a report in The Telegraph. A UK government spokesperson told CNBC that the incident affected one small energy producer and that at no point was the overall energy system at risk. President Donald Trump disclosed more than 1,000 financial transactions in June, reflecting a major portfolio reshuffle. The transactions totaled between 78.1 million and 263.1 million dollars, according to the latest disclosure filed on August 22. Trump's securities purchases totaled more than 49 million dollars, while securities sales were at least 28.5 million dollars. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to buy back long-dated US government bonds and offset that with additional issuance of short-term bills, calling the approach Treasury Twist, a reference to the Federal Reserve's program in the 1960s. Vietnam's National Assembly approved amendments to the customs law on Sunday, giving customs authorities more power to intercept counterfeit goods and intellectual property violations more strictly, which could ease some US concerns from its trade investigation into Vietnam. The artificial intelligence boom is shifting the competitive landscape of capital markets in Southeast Asia, especially the Thai and Singapore stock markets, which are both racing to adjust rules to attract more technology companies and new-economy businesses to list. Data from Nikkei Asia shows that in the first half of 2026, the Thai stock market had only one IPO, raising 10.4 million US dollars, while Singapore had five deals raising a combined 1.05 billion US dollars. The Asia-Pacific region had 247 IPOs raising a combined 47 billion US dollars, according to EY. Alibaba said it is selling new shares worth 80 billion Hong Kong dollars, or 10.2 billion dollars, to raise funds for artificial intelligence development. If completed, the deal would be the largest follow-on share sale ever by a company listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The offering would be the third-largest in the world this year, behind follow-on offerings by Alphabet and Intel. Famed investor Michael Burry criticized Alibaba Group shares as overvalued and revealed that he recently sold his stake and ended his holding in the company. He said Alibaba's share price would have to fall by half for him to become interested in investing again, and he disagreed with the share issuance. He also expects the company's return on invested capital to keep declining.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that any country joining US economic pressure measures against Iran will be considered an enemy. Iran will first negotiate with those countries and demand they withdraw from the conflict. If they refuse, Iran will strike the interests of those countries. And if neighboring countries join the US-led economic blockade, Iran will not allow even a single drop of oil to be exported through the Strait of Hormuz. Rezaei stressed that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States complies with the understanding for peace between Iran and the United States signed in June, and the United States must act first.

Iran has allowed some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the Iraqi government submitted multiple requests through various channels. Iran's official IRNA news agency reported that asking Iran to grant special permission for Iraqi oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz was one of the key demands of the Iraqi government during the visit to Iraq by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely affected after nearly six months of war between the United States and Iran. Ship-tracking data showed only four cargo vessels transited the strait on Thursday, August 20, with no large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas carriers among them. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said military operations have helped raise oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to an average of 8 million barrels per day over the past seven days, down from more than 20 million barrels per day before the conflict. Pre-war volumes through the strait accounted for about one-fifth of global oil consumption.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York market closed higher on Friday after President Donald Trump threatened economic sanctions against countries still trading with Iran, raising concerns that global oil supply could tighten. The October WTI contract rose 23 cents, or 0.26%, to settle at $87.06 a barrel. The October Brent contract rose 61 cents, or 0.65%, to settle at $94.39 a barrel. For the week, Brent gained 6.39% and WTI gained 5.66%. Both benchmarks hit their highest levels since July 24 during Thursday's session amid supply risk concerns from the conflict between the United States and Iran. Data from Kpler showed that on Thursday only seven commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, down by half from 14 the previous day. Before the conflict, the route handled nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas volumes. Meanwhile, buyers in the market have increasingly sought alternative oil sources, including from the United States, Venezuela, the United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere, after offers of Iranian crude to buyers in China fell significantly due to the impact of the blockade, while Iranian oil prices rose amid tight supply. The market is also watching supply risks from Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in the city of Perm, more than 1,600 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, further heightening concerns over the stability of global energy supply.

The United States is set to announce the largest sanctions package against Iran in history on Monday, August 24, at 2 p.m. US time, or 1 a.m. Tuesday Thailand time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will announce the measures, which could cover both Iran and key trading partners, including China, which has purchased more than 80 percent of Iran's seaborne oil exports in 2025. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the measures reflect US efforts to exert power over other countries, and insisted the United States has no authority under international law to punish other countries that continue doing business with Iran. Meanwhile, oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with only four cargo vessels transiting the strait on Thursday, and no large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas carriers among them. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to an average of 8 million barrels per day over the past seven days, down from more than 20 million barrels per day before the conflict.

Oil prices are approaching $100 per barrel as US President Trump's 'Economic D-Day' campaign against Iran escalates geopolitical risk and keeps Strait of Hormuz transits in single digits all week. ICE Brent is at $94 per barrel, Asian LNG prices are at $24 per MMBtu, and VLCC freight rates are at exorbitant levels, with upward momentum expected to continue through August. Trump threatened sweeping penalties against countries trading with Iran, putting China's Iranian crude imports in the crosshairs, while Iraq approved three-month contracts for alternative export routes and the US now receives over 500,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude. Japan's US crude imports surged more than eight-fold to a record 891,000 barrels per day in July, and the Panama Canal Authority will restrict daily transits to 32 by mid-September due to El Niño-driven low water levels.

China has spoken out against the United States' increased economic pressure on Iran and countries that still trade with Tehran, stressing that sanctions are not the solution. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on August 20, 2026, calling on all parties to return to political and diplomatic approaches. The stance came after President Donald Trump announced a push to increase economic pressure on Iran, while warning that countries providing economic assistance to Iran could face consequences from the United States. China is being watched especially closely because it is a major buyer of Iranian oil. Data from Kpler shows that in 2025, more than 80 percent of Iranian oil shipped by sea was destined for China, averaging about 1.38 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates announced a suspension of financial transactions with Iran until further notice, adding further pressure on Tehran's international trade channels. Markets are watching whether the United States will extend measures to major Chinese banks or companies, which could affect access to the dollar financial system and significantly increase pressure on Chinese firms involved in Iranian oil trade.

The United States is preparing a new round of sanctions on Iran described as the toughest in history, with details to be announced on Monday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US strategy will apply one-two pressure: a naval blockade of Iran combined with the new sanctions, to reduce the need for large-scale military action. China is under particular scrutiny, as 2025 data from Kpler shows China buys more than 80% of Iran's seaborne oil exports. Iran's foreign ministry condemned the measures as economic terrorism and affirmed it will not change its stance on defending the country's independence.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at their highest level in nearly a month after President Donald Trump announced tough economic measures against Iran and threatened to retaliate against countries that support Iran. WTI crude for September delivery rose 2 dollars, or 2.3%, to settle at 87.83 dollars a barrel. Brent crude for October delivery rose 2.16 dollars, or 2.36%, to settle at 93.78 dollars a barrel. Both benchmarks closed at their highest levels since July 27, after Trump threatened to impose the toughest economic measures ever against Iran and warned that countries allowing their financial institutions, businesses, or government agencies to support Iran would face massive economic consequences. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced support for the approach, saying that the US government's plan to destroy Iran's economy makes it likely that the United States will not need to take additional military action against Iran. Iran, meanwhile, accused the United States of economic terrorism and crimes against humanity after Washington announced it would step up sanctions to put heavy pressure on Iran's economy. Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said the threats make Iran even less willing to give up a key bargaining chip, namely control of the Strait of Hormuz, if the United States does not ease pressure on Iran. The situation reflects that tensions in the Middle East remain without a solution and may prevent oil prices from falling back to levels near those before the war. The latest shipping data showed that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday was unchanged from the previous day and remained far below pre-war levels. Before the war with Iran, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz accounted for roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption. In addition, the United Arab Emirates, a major oil producer in the Arabian Gulf, announced it was suspending all trade and financial transactions with Iran after being attacked by Iranian missiles, underscoring the strained relationship between the UAE and Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a CNBC television interview on the 20th that he plans to hold a press conference on the 24th to unveil details of additional sanctions against Iran. He stated that the US will work with allies to economically isolate Iran and impose the toughest sanctions in history. In addition to the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports, he stressed that the additional sanctions will cause the Iranian regime to collapse, and signaled that the US will not hesitate to sanction countries that continue buying oil from Iran. He also said that China, which has deep economic ties with Iran, could benefit if it supports the sanctions. He also stated that if additional sanctions are imposed, there will be no resumption of large-scale military action, making clear the policy of cornering Iran through economic pressure.

The governor of Iran's central bank has admitted that Iran currently has no oil exports and is facing tighter restrictions on access to foreign currency reserves. Abdolnaser Hemmati said Iran is facing severe constraints on oil exports as the United States increases pressure on the Iranian economy, with oil revenue falling to zero and not a single portion of Iran's frozen funds having been released. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has announced the toughest economic measures ever imposed on Iran, warning that countries supporting Iran will face massive economic consequences.