With the Federal Reserve deciding on September 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points and signaling further tightening, Ethereum plunged 5% on Tuesday to a two-week low of $2,358, then rebounded about 2% on Wednesday to roughly $2,400 to $2,450. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range for the policy rate by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, and in its summary of economic projections, a majority of 12 of the 18 participating policymakers forecast another 25bp hike by the end of 2026, while the median core inflation forecast was raised to 3.4%. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a second 25bp hike has risen to 66% from 43% just 24 hours before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Three price levels where past large whale trades clustered are cited: 8,077 trades on August 21 at a median price of about $2,434, 8,814 trades on June 5 at an average price of about $1,635, and 7,644 trades on May 6 at an average price of about $2,293. A clear break below $2,434 would expose the next whale activity zone. Prediction markets put the probability of reaching a $2,750 target at 69% and the $3,000 psychological threshold at 48%, while the probability of falling below $2,000 stands at just 18%.
FOMC raised the target range 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, lifting the effective federal funds rate.
Hawkish Fed hike and raised core inflation forecast push Treasury yields higher, so the 10Y yield rises.
