Bitcoin

StarkWare announced today that it has successfully processed the first Bitcoin transaction resistant to quantum computers, a development that challenges the conventional wisdom that a hard fork is the only way to protect Bitcoin from quantum threats. Avihu Levy, head of applications at StarkWare, devised a method to add a special lock using a technique called signature grinding to prevent public key data from being exposed while transactions wait in the mempool, a period vulnerable to attacks from future quantum computers. The method is intentionally costly and can take hours to process per transaction, and because the transaction format is too unusual for regular nodes to accept, it must be sent directly to miners willing to accept it. MARA mined the transaction through its Slipstream service. Despite this discovery, Levy still supports protocol upgrades for long-term security, with StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson stating that this method provides psychological assurance and acts as a lifeboat, but we should not relax and should build more lifeboats now.

CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin has entered the early phase of a new bull market, having risen more than 25% since the start of last week, but it still needs to close above the 365-day moving average, currently around $83,000, for official confirmation. The on-chain data analytics firm said Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 this week, driven by the U.S. Treasury's plan to double its long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9, and comments from President Donald Trump signaling that the U.S. government may consider buying Bitcoin. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said the closing price of $79,000 was about 5% below the 365-day average, which now stands at $83,100. A decisive break above $83,000 would confirm a new bull market, and until then, that level is likely to act as initial resistance, with the possibility of an early bull market pullback. CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 within a week, the strongest since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $124,000, with 8 out of 10 indicators signaling bullish. Spot market demand grew at the fastest monthly rate since late December, and spot and futures demand expanded together for the first time since early October 2025. However, the firm warned that the market looks overheated in the short term. Traders' unrealized profit margin climbed to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025, and short-term holders have already taken profits, realizing $1.2 billion in gains from August 20 to 22, including a single-day record of $614 million on August 20. Bitcoin exchange inflows surged to about 53,000 BTC, the highest since June 5, while Ether rose to 1.7 million ETH and XRP to 460 million XRP, indicating intentions to take profits or hedge.

Bitcoin started this month trading near 9.92 million yen and has risen to around 12.6 million yen, marking a monthly gain of about 26%. It has climbed above its 12-month moving average, suggesting a reversal of the long-term trend. On August 19, short position liquidations in the futures market totaled approximately $690 million, one of the largest in the past five years, contributing to the sharp rally. Inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have also continued, underpinned by institutional buying demand. On the upside, the May high near 13 million yen is seen as resistance, and a decline in the ADX suggests possible consolidation. Next month, the focus will be on breaking above 13 million yen. If it breaks through, the uptrend will likely continue; if it is held back, support around the 12-month moving average and the 11 million yen level will be crucial.

Grayscale, a major US asset manager, published a report on the 26th analyzing the Treasury's expanded buyback of US government bonds, arguing that the buybacks only address the symptom of rising interest rates and do not resolve the root cause of structural fiscal deficits. On the 19th, the Treasury announced it would double the size of long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation from $2 billion, and on the same day, US public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. Grayscale analyzed that with private capital demand expanding amid AI-related investment, the simultaneous increase in funding needs from both the government and private sector is pushing up interest rates. It stated that the unchecked growth of government debt undermines confidence in fiat currencies, prompting investors to seek alternative stores of value with issuance caps, such as gold and certain cryptocurrencies, and named Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash as beneficiaries. However, the increased amount applies to auctions from September 9 to November 4, with the additional size over regular refinancing plans being only about $14 billion, and some market participants view the impact as limited. Additionally, since Grayscale listed the Zcash Trust as a spot ETF, ZCSH, on the 25th, some suggest the report may be aimed at supporting its own product, while others note that gold's longer track record does not automatically give cryptocurrencies an advantage.

Better Mortgage has partnered with Coinbase Prime to expand a new type of home loan that allows borrowers to use Bitcoin as collateral for their down payment without having to sell their coins. This initiative is part of a residential mortgage program supported by Fannie Mae and represents an industry first, enabling digital asset holders to access home loans without converting their liquidity into cash.

US research firm Bernstein has projected that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and approximately $300,000 by 2029, the peak of the next cycle. The outlook is underpinned by the view that the 'debasement trade,' driven by expanding government debt, will fuel inflows into Bitcoin as a scarce asset. Bernstein analysts point out that the roughly four-decade-long decline in interest rates has ended, and with US government debt reaching around $40 trillion, rising interest payments are creating a cycle that leads to fiscal deficits and additional borrowing. They analyze that policymakers may eventually tolerate currency debasement, boosting demand for Bitcoin, which has limited supply. This trend is beginning to show in the ETF market, with BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF 'IBIT' and the SPDR Gold ETF 'GLD' returning to the top 10 in trading volume. In the base case, BTC is expected to rise to $125,000 by end-2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and $300,000 by 2029. In the bull case, it could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029, with a long-term forecast of $1 million by end-2033 maintained.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan warns that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is 100% exposed to fiat currency, as investors poured a record $7 billion into gold and Bitcoin funds in just five days. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas calls this the debasement trade, a bet on assets no government can print, which has now stolen the spotlight from AI funds. SPDR Gold Shares took in $3.4 billion in the week through August 21, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust added over $1 billion, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF bled $1.7 billion. The trigger is Washington's debt crossing $40 trillion and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's decision to double long-bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9. Central banks have already shifted, with gold reaching 27% of their reserves, overtaking US Treasuries at 22%. Bitcoin trades near $79,144, up 0.55% in 24 hours, while IBIT is still down roughly 10% this year after nursing a 33% loss as recently as June.

MSCI is considering new rules that could remove Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. from its global equity indexes, reviving a threat to the company's financing model for its vast Bitcoin holdings. The proposal, part of a consultation seeking feedback through September, would exclude companies primarily engaged in accumulating assets rather than operating businesses, and applying it as of May would have removed Strategy, Metaplanet Inc., and Yellow Cake Plc. Strategy's shares have jumped over 35% in the past week as Bitcoin climbed above $80,000, but they remain down roughly 60% over the past year. The potential index removal could shrink the pool of investors required to own the stock, adding pressure to a capital structure already strained by shareholder dilution concerns. MSCI plans to announce the consultation results in October.

BlackRock has helped move more than $5 billion of directly held Bitcoin into its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), strengthening Wall Street's grip on the cryptocurrency. The shift allows large holders to exchange BTC for ETF shares without first selling their coins for cash, with the total climbing from over $3 billion in October 2025 after BlackRock lowered the minimum transaction size from $25 million to $1 million in July. Bitcoin was trading near $79,000 on Wednesday after briefly reaching a three-month high above $81,000. BlackRock digital assets chief Robbie Mitchnick told Bloomberg that the growth will continue as access expands, noting that kidnappings and custody failures have made some large holders reconsider personal control. Industry commentators see the milestone as evidence that Bitcoin whales are moving into Wall Street without liquidating, while analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or more if bullish catalysts persist, including historically strong fourth-quarter performance and capital rotation away from AI investments.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, briefly recovered the $80,000 (approximately 13 million yen) level per BTC on the 25th, marking the first time in over three months. According to the information site CoinDesk, it has risen about 25% over the past week. Amid turmoil in the U.S. Treasury market, market confidence in U.S. assets has declined, strengthening the trend of selling dollars and buying other assets.

Galaxy Digital has launched a crypto-backed portfolio line of credit on its GalaxyOne platform, allowing eligible U.S. clients to borrow against Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana without selling their holdings. The revolving credit line combines eligible BTC, ETH, and SOL under one facility, with staked SOL usable as collateral without unstaking, and carries no origination fee with a variable 8.99% annual percentage rate. Lines begin at a 50% loan-to-value ratio with interest-only monthly payments and funding typically available instantly in U.S. dollars or USDC. Collateral is not rehypothecated, and the product is initially available to eligible clients in 40 U.S. states. The launch expands GalaxyOne beyond trading and investment access into consumer lending.

Soluna Holdings has signed a 28-megawatt co-mining agreement with Bitdeer Technologies Group, adding approximately 1.93 EH/s of Bitcoin mining capacity at its wind-powered Project Kati 1 site in South Texas. Bitdeer will deploy SEALMINER A2 Pro Air machines beginning in September 2026, with capacity scheduled to come online in batches. Soluna will provide the site, power and turnkey operations, while Bitdeer will own the mining equipment and both companies will share proceeds generated by the deployment. The agreement introduces a new structure for Soluna's Bitcoin platform, allowing the company to participate directly in mining economics alongside Bitdeer rather than collecting only hosting revenue. Project Kati 1 is an 83 MW data center in Willacy County that delivered its first gross profit during the second quarter, and the Bitdeer deployment will be located in the K1BC phase, extending activity at Soluna's largest operating site.

Call-option volume on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust hit a record 1.58 million contracts on Aug. 19, according to Goldman Sachs data highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter. IBIT call volume remained above one million contracts for three consecutive sessions, while its three-day call skew jumped 0.05, the largest increase in available data going back to January 2025. The options rush coincided with more than $1 billion of fresh inflows into IBIT between Aug. 19 and Aug. 21 as Bitcoin climbed toward $80,000.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the United States is heading for a major debt crisis, likening the nation to a person on the verge of a heart attack. In an August 21 LinkedIn post, the Bridgewater Associates founder cited a $4 billion U.S. debt buyback, rising bond yields, a weak dollar, and a Japanese sell-off of U.S. bond holdings as signs of a potential government debt crisis. Dalio estimated the U.S. will see around a $2 trillion budget shortfall this year with $11 trillion in debt service payments, and noted that U.S. debt topped $40 trillion for the first time earlier this month. He proposed cutting the budget deficit to 3% of GDP through spending cuts, lower interest rates, and higher tax revenue, while cautioning against forced adjustments like artificially low rates. Dalio predicted the crisis could come 'in three years, give or take two,' and advised diversifying assets, underweighting bonds, and holding 10% to 15% in gold plus a bit of Bitcoin.

Coinbase Global shares jumped 10% on August 19 as Bitcoin gained about 6% and traded at its highest level since early June, following a White House meeting where President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass a fair version of the CLARITY Act. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joined other cryptocurrency executives and financial regulators at the meeting. The stock move combined cryptocurrency price strength with regulatory expectations, yet second-quarter revenue still declined 19% to $1.22 billion and the company reported a $359.5 million net loss. The CLARITY Act, which would establish clearer jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC and create a federal registration framework for digital-commodity exchanges, has passed the House and advanced through the Senate Banking Committee but faces a procedural floor vote scheduled for September. Coinbase said its company-defined crypto trading-volume market share reached a record 10.3% in the second quarter, subscription and services revenue totaled $555 million, and average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion.

Option traders have turned bullish on Bitcoin and are betting that the price of the largest cryptocurrency will top $82,000 U.S. Market data shows a growing number of Wall Street traders are piling into call-option contracts with an $82,000 U.S. strike price that expire Sept. 4, with one trader alone spending $2.9 million U.S. on the contracts. The bullish bets come as Bitcoin's price briefly rose above $80,000 U.S. for the first time since May, reaching as high as $80,995 U.S. before pulling back to $79,150 U.S., and the cryptocurrency has risen nearly 25% in the past week. Some analysts warn Bitcoin is encountering resistance at $80,000 U.S. and needs a sustained breakout above that level for the rally to continue, while its new trading range appears to be between $74,000 U.S. and $80,000 U.S. after breaking above previous resistance at $65,000 U.S.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin has entered a new bull market as the US Treasury prepares to inject more dollar liquidity through expanded bond buybacks. In his latest essay, Hayes argued that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to increase long-duration bond buybacks by about $20 billion next quarter is a form of indirect money printing, and he expects larger interventions if the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%. He compared the setup to late 2023, when Treasury bill issuance helped release roughly $2.4 trillion from the Fed's reverse repo facility, coinciding with gains in Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100. Hayes said Maelstrom is operating at maximum risk with Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena and Ether.fi among its principal positions, and he warned of possible sharp corrections despite the bullish outlook.

Bitcoin broke above $81,000 on August 25 for the first time in three months. The move came after CNBC reported that the U.S. Treasury is considering using part of roughly $933.2 billion in government cash to fund Treasury buybacks. The Treasury has announced that from September 9 through November 4, it will at least double the per-operation cap on liquidity-support purchases of long-term coupon securities to $4 billion from $2 billion. BTC futures trading volume rose 57.83% to $97.43 billion, open interest increased 4.66% to $58.04 billion, and total liquidations over 24 hours reached $164.07 million. While the 14-day RSI stood at 83.9, signaling overbought conditions, the long-short ratio was balanced at 1.0056, with some analysts noting that spot buying may be supporting the rally.

Ark Investment Management, founded by Cathie Wood, projects Bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of $16 trillion by 2030, implying a price of $797,000 per coin and a potential upside of 920% from current levels. The forecast, detailed in Ark's 2026 Big Ideas report, is driven primarily by two catalysts: institutional investment, where global fund managers could allocate 2.5% of their $200 trillion in managed assets to Bitcoin, adding $5 trillion to its market cap, and Bitcoin's role as digital gold, capturing 20% to 60% of gold's $32 trillion market cap, adding between $6.5 trillion and $19.4 trillion. Four other catalysts—emerging-market safe haven, nation-state treasury reserves, corporate treasury holdings, and on-chain financial services—are expected to contribute negligibly. Ark reduced its emerging-market safe-haven estimate by 80% from 2025 to 2026 due to stablecoin adoption. The article notes that Bitcoin has declined 18% since the start of 2025 while gold has risen 72%, casting doubt on the digital gold thesis, and that a $16 trillion market cap would exceed the combined value of Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet.

Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev says three factors support a sustained crypto rally and names Robinhood, eToro, and Bitgo as the best-positioned stocks. He notes the current rally runs on less leverage than previous ones, with coin-denominated open interest at a one-month low, indicating spot and ETF demand rather than leveraged longs. Retail trading volumes remain depressed but could provide another leg higher if ETF-led accumulation pulls activity back onto exchanges. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew roughly $1.9 billion over the past week, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025, led by IBIT. Dolev calls Robinhood the cleanest way to express the inflection, citing its record 40% spot retail share in the second quarter of 2026 and highest operating leverage among peers, while eToro is a contrarian value play trading near 52-week lows at under 10 times earnings despite 18% growth in funded accounts to 4.28 million, and Bitgo is the infrastructure and custody winner benefiting from institutional accumulation through ETFs.

Robert Kiyosaki is warning that America's national debt crossing $40 trillion will punish savers who hold cash, which he calls a 'fake asset.' The Rich Dad Poor Dad author said on X that 'savers of cash are the BIGGEST LOSERS' and later criticized the Treasury's decision to at least double the size of certain buyback operations involving longer-dated government debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, calling it 'another round of quantitative easing.' Kiyosaki argues the policy will weaken the U.S. Dollar Index and accelerate inflation, leaving 'savers of fake $' as 'the biggest losers.' He instead recommends 'educated investors who invest in assets that go up in value, such as gold, silver, Bitcoin, some real estate,' and specifically said he thinks silver is the best choice in August 2026, citing economist Jim Rickards' forecast of $200 an ounce for silver and $10,000 an ounce for gold.

U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday as investors awaited Nvidia earnings and key inflation data, while the White House expanded sanctions against Iran and Bitcoin extended its rally above $80,000. Dow futures were up 89 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained 20 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 165 points, or 0.6%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled new economic measures against Iran, describing them as an economic onslaught against Iran's financial connections, and warned that any entity facilitating money laundering on behalf of Iran would be excluded from the U.S. dollar system. Brent crude futures fell 0.6% to $91.58 a barrel as traders played down immediate supply risks, while Intuit is scheduled to report earnings after the close following its announcement of a 17% workforce reduction. Bitcoin gained 4.0% to $80,415.7, its highest level in more than three months, supported by strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and short-covering.

Global share and bond markets regained a sense of calm on Tuesday as investors shrugged off U.S. plans to expand sanctions against Iran and began limbering up for Wednesday's results from the world's most valuable company, Nvidia. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned countries on Monday to cut their financial ties with Iran or face secondary sanctions as part of what had been billed as "economic D-Day," but the Treasury Department stopped short of actually imposing penalties. European shares started 0.3% higher as investors took comfort in the softer-than-feared U.S. announcement, though it was partly as defence firms' stocks pushed higher on the likelihood that the conflict could continue for many months yet. Bitcoin crossed the $80,000 level for the first time since mid-May as another 2% overnight jump took its rise over the last 10 days past 30%. Analysts are generally looking for Nvidia's quarterly revenue to almost double to around $92 billion, with full-year earnings guidance seen in a range of $103 billion to $105 billion.

Metaplanet's unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings improved by about 78.451 billion yen over the past five days, driven by a sharp rebound in the crypto asset market. As of 3:30 p.m. on August 25, Bitcoin was priced at 12.87 million yen per coin, leaving the company with an unrealized loss of about 105.846 billion yen. In its interim results for the fiscal year ending December 2026, announced on August 13, the company had booked an unrealized loss of 184.297 billion yen, reflecting the market decline as of the end of June. At the end of June, Metaplanet held 43,000 Bitcoin with a total acquisition cost of 659.256 billion yen, and the market value of its Bitcoin holdings has recovered to about 553.41 billion yen as prices have rebounded since around August 20.

Bitcoin has broken above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, climbing to trade above $80,900 today, a gain of about 25% over the past week. At around 12:30 p.m. Thailand time, bitcoin was up 4.71% at $80,625.57. Analysts view the rebound as an early sign of recovery in the cryptocurrency market, with the price still nearly 36% below its record high of about $126,000 set in October last year. A key driver came from the U.S. Treasury Department's announcement that it will double its long-term government bond buyback program to at least $4 billion per operation throughout the next quarter, aiming to lower bond yields and stimulate the economy. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is pushing the Clarity Act, which is seen as fair to the crypto industry and is raising expectations that institutional investors will find it easier to enter the market.

Bitcoin climbed above the $80,000 level for the first time since May 15, extending a recovery that has gathered momentum across the crypto market over the past week. The price is up about 38% from its lows in late June and early July, when it briefly slumped below $58,000. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1.9 billion in inflows last week, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025. A key driver came from the US Treasury, which doubled its purchases of long-term government bonds through early November and signaled it may draw on its general account of nearly $1 trillion to fund those buybacks. Investors are watching the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, due this week. Thadeu Dos Santos, regional director at FX broker Infinox, said core PCE will be closely watched to see whether underlying price pressures continue to ease.

Bitcoin surged past the $80,000 level for the first time since mid-May as confidence returned to the long-sluggish crypto market, supported by the debasement trade, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and short covering. Bitcoin rose as much as 2.5% to $80,908 in Asian trading on Tuesday, August 25, its highest level since May 15, after gaining as much as 23% in the seven days through Sunday, marking its biggest weekly advance in about three years. A key catalyst came from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement last week that the U.S. government would step up buybacks of government bonds to push long-term yields lower, which spurred dollar selling and renewed investor interest in bitcoin and gold as hedges against currency debasement. Meanwhile, the 13 U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw combined net inflows of $1.92 billion last week, the highest in 10 months, including a net inflow of $606.3 million on August 20, the largest daily total in more than three months. In addition, a meeting between President Donald Trump and crypto industry executives on the same day Bessent announced the buyback measures helped revive hopes that the U.S. government remains supportive of the digital asset industry. Bitcoin's rapid rally inflicted heavy losses on bearish investors, with data from Coinglass showing that leveraged short positions in crypto assets were liquidated for a total of about $7.2 billion last week, further accelerating the price gains in a short squeeze. Still, some analysts remain cautious about the recovery, noting that the short squeeze has been a key driver, and that it remains to be seen whether investor buying will continue once short-covering pressure begins to fade.

Coinbase Global Inc. CEO Brian Armstrong said stablecoins could give people in countries battling high inflation and volatile currencies an easier way to access stronger global currencies without leaving their home countries. Armstrong argued in a post on X that crypto has created new options for people looking to protect their savings from weakening local currencies, pointing to countries where high inflation or currency volatility can rapidly erode household purchasing power. He said stablecoins are changing that dynamic by allowing people to hold digital assets tied to stronger fiat currencies, adding that residents historically had few ways to protect their wealth. Armstrong also said the year-long crypto spot trading bear market could be nearing an end, citing the upcoming CLARITY Act vote, Bitcoin's historical fourth-quarter strength and the length of the current downturn as potential catalysts. He said Bitcoin spot trading accounted for about 12% of Coinbase's revenue, while derivatives, prediction markets, stablecoin payments and real-world asset tokenization continued to grow.

Market analyst Tom Lee has ranked MicroStrategy among 17 top crypto-linked stocks in a new sector review. Lee highlights MicroStrategy's 78% historical correlation to Bitcoin as the company continues to concentrate on digital assets. The ranking comes as several Bitcoin miners reduce direct crypto exposure and shift parts of their business toward AI-related services. The unresolved point is how management will use roughly US$334m of fresh capital after the mid-June pause in Bitcoin purchases, with the next detailed balance sheet update expected in MicroStrategy's quarterly filings.

Strategy shares jumped 4.9% after the company disclosed a $1.59 billion liquidity pool and raised $2.01 billion through equity sales. The company created a new USD Cash account within its Digital Credit Capital Framework, funded by selling about 18.26 million Class A common shares. It allocated $1.59 billion to the new account, $300 million to expand its USD Reserve to $5.10 billion, and $136.4 million to repurchase perpetual preferred stock. The move brought total dollar liquidity to about $6.69 billion. The rally was also driven by Bitcoin surging past $78,000, above Strategy's average purchase price of $75,385 per coin for its 840,447 Bitcoin holdings, turning a paper loss into an unrealized profit of over $1.4 billion.

Strategy disclosed Monday the creation of a new cash reserve called USD Cash, which currently holds $1.59 billion and can be deployed to buy bitcoin, fund preferred-stock dividends and debt payments, repurchase securities, or cover other corporate expenses. The company's existing reserve, now at $5.1 billion, is restricted to covering preferred-stock dividend obligations and interest on outstanding debt, with board approval required for other uses. Strategy's last bitcoin acquisition dates to the seven-day period ending June 22, and a Monday filing confirmed no purchases or sales occurred in the week through Sunday, with total bitcoin holdings valued at roughly $70 billion. Shares climbed as much as 3% to $122.79 when markets opened Monday, though the stock remains down roughly 66% over the trailing twelve months. The new cash pool follows a difficult stretch for Strategy, which reported a net loss of $8.22 billion for the second quarter of 2026, driven by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on its digital asset holdings as bitcoin's price declined.