Amazon Q1 Earnings Beat by 68% Yet Shares Slip, Model Sees 38% Upside

Earnings
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Summary · why it matters

Amazon shares trade 12% below their 52-week high despite a first-quarter earnings beat of 68%, prompting a proprietary model to issue a buy rating with a 12-month price target of $321.47, implying 38% upside. The company reported revenue of $181.5 billion, up 16.6% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $2.78 against expectations of $1.65, while AWS grew 28% to $37.6 billion and the chips business surpassed a $20 billion run rate. A $364 billion AWS backlog and over $225 billion in Trainium commitments support a bull case target of $367, while the bear case still lands at $278, 19% above the current price. Analyst consensus remains overwhelmingly positive with 47 buys and zero sells, though concerns persist over a $200 billion 2026 capital expenditure plan that contributed to a 95% drop in trailing free cash flow.

Impact on stocks 2

Artificial Intelligence · 2 stocks
Amazon.com Inc
AMZN
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Earnings beat by 68% and strong AWS growth are positive, but $200B capex plan and 95% FCF drop cause concern, leading to mixed market reaction.

NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Amazon's chips business surpassed $20B run rate and Trainium commitments over $225B, indicating strong demand for NVIDIA's AI chips indirectly.

Theme Impact 7

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