Amrize shares tumble as Truist downgrades on roofing pressures and cement pricing

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Amrize shares fell more than 6% on Tuesday after Truist downgraded the building materials company to Hold from Buy and cut its price target to $48 from $65, citing margin pressures in commercial roofing and limited near-term cement pricing upside. Analyst Keith Hughes said the commercial roofing segment, which accounts for approximately 28% of sales, will take time to pass through very large input inflation, causing price and mix erosion in 2026. The Iran conflict has driven up petrochemical prices, with MDI, a key roofing input, surging as much as 73% following supply disruptions and force majeure declarations at major producers Dow and Covestro. Hughes noted that cement, representing 35% of sales, should see positive volume trends but that the lack of pricing gains limits EBITDA improvement, viewing a meaningful turn in cement pricing as a 2027 issue at best. Truist lowered its 2026 EBITDA estimate to $3,199 million from $3,298 million, with the new price target based on 10.5 times EV/EBITDA, and Hughes expects Amrize to remain stuck in its post-spin trading range, also due to new competition capacity in roofing, flagging Kingspan's entry into the U.S. non-residential market with two plants and plans for a third as a longer-term concern whose impact will first be seen in 2027.

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