Analyzing the Impact of Yen Appreciation and BOJ Rate Hike Expectations on Bitcoin

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We analyzed the impact of the rapid yen appreciation on the bitcoin market, focusing on the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations and the unwinding of yen carry trades. The dollar-yen exchange rate fell from approximately 160.17 yen on September 1 to a temporary low of 152.89 yen, representing a yen appreciation of about 4.5%. This movement is attributed to expectations of additional rate hikes by the BOJ, with markets anticipating that the policy rate will be raised from 1.0% to 1.25% at the September meeting. The stronger yen exerts direct downward pressure on bitcoin prices quoted in yen, meaning that even if the dollar-denominated price remains unchanged, the exchange rate alone could cause a decline of approximately 500,000 yen. Additionally, while there are concerns that the unwinding of yen carry trades could lead to a global sell-off in risk assets, on-chain data does not yet show panic selling by short-term holders as seen in August 2024. The key focus going forward will be whether the dollar-yen rate breaks below 150 yen and the movement of the STH-SOPR, a profitability indicator for short-term holders.

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