Anastasia Amoroso Sees S&P 500 Hitting 8,500 on 2027 Earnings After Iran MOU Removes Geopolitical Tail Risks

MacroIndustry Impact 4
โดย 24/7 Wall St.·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at Partners Group, now sees the S&P 500 reaching roughly 8,500 on 2027 earnings, with 8,200 as the more likely year-end 2027 target, after the newly-signed Iran MOU removed geopolitical tail risks her team had been modeling. Those risks included a 30-to-50-basis-point drag on GDP growth and 50-to-100-basis-point upside to inflation, and their removal shifts focus back to consumer spending, corporate margins, and the global capex cycle. Amoroso points to Q2 earnings growing 25% year-over-year against a 15% forecast, with Q3 tracking another 20% and S&P profit margins at 14% or higher, while BEA corporate profits hit $4.4 trillion in Q1 2026, up 12.8% year-over-year. She also highlights a multi-region capex story, including Vanguard's estimate of $2.1 trillion in cumulative AI-related capital expenditure from Q1 2025 through Q4 2027, and a U.S. FY 2027 Department of War request of $1.5 trillion, a roughly 42% increase, alongside NATO's new 5% of GDP defense-spending standard. However, risks remain: core PCE hit 130.08 in May, its highest in 12 months, and BlackRock entered 2026 with reduced U.S. equity exposure, warning that AI capex overinvestment could undermine the earnings growth underpinning the bull case.

Impact on stocks 3

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Partners Group Holding AG
PGHN
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Partners Group's chief strategist raised S&P 500 target to 8,500 on 2027 earnings after Iran MOU removed geopolitical risks.

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA
▲ PositiveCapitalDemandrelevance

Vanguard estimates $2.1 trillion cumulative AI-related capex through 2027, boosting demand for NVIDIA's chips.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▼ · 1 stocks
BlackRock Inc
BLK
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

BlackRock reduced U.S. equity exposure, warning AI capex overinvestment could undermine earnings growth.

Theme Impact 2

Off-coverage companies 1

The Vanguard Group, Inc.Private± Mixed
relevance

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