Archer Aviation Lacks Piloted Transition Milestone, Making Stock Too Risky

Joby Aviation reported Q2 revenue of $38.64 million against a $30.38 million consensus and raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $115 million to $125 million, with CEO JoeBen Bevirt saying the company is preparing for commercial service and targeting its first EIPP flights in Dallas-Fort Worth this month. The stock trades at $6.26, down 52.57% year-to-date and 56.49% over the past year, well below its $19.98 52-week high. Joby's FAA Stage 4 certification progress has moved from 6% to 20%, Blade seats sold rose more than 50% year-over-year in Q2, and the company counts a $250 million direct investment from Toyota, a Virgin Atlantic UK partnership, and a Dubai vertiport network among its supports. Against rival Archer Aviation, which carries a $4.02 billion market cap and posted just $5 million in Q2 revenue, Joby's $6.04 billion valuation rests on a larger revenue base. Risks include an operating margin of -1,346.92%, guided H2 2026 cash use of $385 million to $415 million, prior raises of $1.2 billion in February and $576 million in October 2025, and certification timing that could slip into 2027.

Archer Aviation's stock surged 24.6% in August, driven by news that the company agreed to acquire three Boeing subsidiaries. The broader market also rose, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.6% and the Nasdaq Composite up 3.9%. On August 10, Archer announced a deal to purchase Boeing's Wisk Aero, SkyGrid, and Insitu units, with Boeing receiving a 16.5% stake in Archer in exchange. Insitu, which is already profitable with about $200 million in annual sales, is expected to immediately boost Archer's revenue and margins. Despite the monthly gain, Archer shares remain down roughly 24% year to date, and the stock has pulled back about 1.2% in early September amid market volatility.

Boeing announced plans to sell three of its aerospace and electric vertical takeoff and landing businesses to Archer Aviation. In exchange for the businesses and a $55 million equity investment, Boeing will receive newly issued shares and warrants in Archer, giving it nearly 20% ownership after the deal closes later this year. Boeing retains rights to use Wisk's autonomous flight technology for its commercial and defense aircraft. The divestiture removes a distraction as Boeing works to restore its commercial aircraft business, recently marked by FAA approval of the 737 MAX 7. Boeing trades at about 77 times trailing earnings, a premium to GE Aerospace's 40 times, and management targets $10 billion in annual free cash flow, below the $14 billion generated in 2018.