Asia Plus Says Fed Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00% Warrants Selective Buy Strategy

MacroDigital FinanceGeopolitics Impact 4
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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the US Federal Reserve's September meeting has stirred volatility across global financial markets, after the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, as expected, in a bid to control inflation that still shows no clear sign of slowing. However, the policy rate projections in the Dot Plot signaled a more hawkish stance than the market had expected, with as many as 16 FOMC members favoring at least one more rate hike this year, and another four seeing a 0.50% increase before rates are held steady through 2027 and then gradually cut by just one time per year to 3.6% in 2029. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned of three main factors: the US labor market remains stronger than expected, the inflation outlook is still untrustworthy, and geopolitical risks from surging energy and agricultural commodity prices. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged to its highest level since 2007, pressuring risk assets worldwide. In addition, the US House of Representatives voted 262 to 159 to pass a bill allowing President Donald Trump to impose drastic tariff measures, including a 500% tariff on imports from Russia and a 100% tariff on countries that continue to import energy from Russia or help circumvent sanctions. On the Thai stock market, the research team recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on stocks with specific positive catalysts, highlighting five top picks: NVDA80, CRWD80, CBG, CK and PLANB.

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