Carabao Group Public Company Limited

Analysts from Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited expect CBG's core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to be around 736 million baht, up 19% from the same period last year and flat from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, OSP is expected to see a decline to around 665 million baht, down 5% year-on-year and down 40% quarter-on-quarter. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% and sales in Myanmar increasing 70%. In contrast, OSP faces seasonally weak sales in the CLMV group and higher packaging costs. Analysts view CBG as a top pick due to its strong revenue growth momentum. Although OSP trades at a lower 2027 P/E of 13.2 times compared to 17.2 times for CBG, CBG deserves a premium valuation given its expected 2027 profit growth of 15% versus 7% for OSP, and its ROE is projected to improve to 20.7% in 2027.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its target price for CBG to 74 baht and lifted its normalized profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 11 to 19 percent. It expects 2026 profit at 2.93 billion baht, up 3.4 percent from the previous year and back above the 2024 level. The research team sees the OEM business for Loveza fruit-juice soda drinks as a key driver, with CBG starting to recognize revenue from the second quarter of 2026 at 5 million cans, rising to 15 million cans in the third quarter and 25 million cans in the fourth quarter, targeting production of 100 million cans in 2027. Meanwhile, the alcoholic beverage distribution business is expected to grow 20 to 25 percent per year over the next two to three years, and the Myanmar business is preparing to expand phase-two production capacity. Third-quarter 2026 net profit is forecast at 792 million baht, up 28.5 percent from the same period last year, marking the first return to year-on-year growth in five quarters.

Bualuang Securities analyzed third-quarter 2026 profit trends, saying overall net profit and core profit are likely to expand compared with the same period last year, but are expected to slow from the previous quarter. Key support comes from Brent crude oil prices rising an average of 28 percent year on year, Singapore GRM refining margins surging 434 percent year on year, and wider petrochemical spreads for both HDPE and PET in the West, along with momentum from mobile and internet service revenue, electronics demand tied to the AI and data center cycle, and the recognition of new production capacity and overseas power plant profits at GULF. At the same time, higher jet fuel costs are pressuring airlines, and narrowing interest margins are weighing on the banking sector. Groups whose core profit grew year on year were led by energy, petrochemicals, construction materials, electronics, communications, and retail. Groups whose core profit fell year on year were led by transport and banking. Bualuang Securities recommends a selective investment strategy focused on stocks whose third-quarter profit trends are still expected to grow strongly, have not seen sharp profit downgrades over the past three months, and have clear positive factors supporting recovery. These include KCE, CBG, ITC, BH, BDMS, AOT, CENTEL, and GPSC.

Krungsri Securities assesses that CBG's business trend will recover in the second half of 2026, with third-quarter 2026 revenue expected to grow from a base affected by Cambodia and seasonality that makes the second half stronger than the first. Thailand's energy drink segment, which accounts for 35% of revenue, is still growing 8-10% per year. The alcohol distribution segment, which accounts for 46% of revenue, is growing 25% per year. Myanmar business, which accounts for 9% of revenue, is expected to grow 70-80% per year. Meanwhile, branded product costs are temporarily affected by high-cost inventory lots during the war period, causing gross margin to decline 1-2% from the previous quarter. The company has begun contract manufacturing packaging for the LOVEZA brand, producing 1 million cans in the first quarter of 2026 and 5 million cans in the second quarter, with third and fourth quarter 2026 output expected to rise to 13 million and 20-25 million cans respectively. The target for 2027 is about 100 million cans, representing revenue of about 400 million baht or 1.5% of total revenue. The company plans to open a third furnace to produce glass bottles, investing 1.5 billion baht through internal cash flow, to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2027, and plans to produce a 12-baht bottle as a new product. It also plans to downsize its UK business, setting a 2026 loss target of about 90 million baht, falling to 23 million baht in 2027. Krungsri estimates 2026 profit at 2.8-3.0 billion baht, flat to up 6% per year, and gives an initial speculative target of 60-65 baht based on 2027 profit growth of 10% per year and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times.

Analysts at KGI Securities Thailand have raised their dividend per share forecasts for CBG for 2026 to 2028 to 2.00 baht, 2.20 baht, and 2.40 baht, up from 1.30 baht, 1.40 baht, and 1.45 baht. They expect the payout ratio to rise to 67 to 69 percent from 41 to 47 percent, as the company has no need for large capital spending, which should improve shareholder returns and capital allocation efficiency. CBG will pay a first-half 2026 dividend of 1.00 baht per share, up from 0.70 baht per share in the same period last year, representing a yield of about 1.8 percent and a payout ratio of 74 percent. The analysts maintain a buy rating with a target price of 65 baht, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, and see a high likelihood that CBG will be added to the SET50 index in the first half of 2027, which would be another positive factor for the share price. They also name CBG as their top pick in the beverage sector for the third quarter of 2026. Core profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to decline from the previous quarter but grow from the same period last year, as gross margin falls by 1 to 2 percent due to higher aluminum and gas costs for the full quarter, even though domestic energy drink sales are still growing 8 to 10 percent and distribution business revenue is expected to jump 20 to 25 percent. For the fourth quarter of 2026, profit is expected to improve both from the previous quarter and from the same period last year, as distribution revenue enters its high season and raw material costs decline.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council reported that gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 1.9% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter but above the market forecast of 1.7%. The main support came from private investment, which grew strongly in line with investment promotion applications, while private consumption slowed to 1.9% from 3.3% in the previous quarter amid higher domestic energy prices, and government spending was weak because disbursement had already been accelerated earlier. Yuanta Securities expects consumption to recover clearly in the third quarter from the full-quarter impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures, and government spending to accelerate toward the end of the fiscal year. It maintains a positive view on construction contractors, power plants, industrial estates, retail, and food and beverage, citing stocks CK, STECON, GUNKUL, GULF, FORTH, SAMART, EPG, BJC, CPALL and CBG. The planning agency also raised its GDP forecast for this year to 2.0 to 2.5% from 1.5 to 2.5%, and lowered its inflation forecast to 1.5 to 2.0% from 2.0 to 3.0%, which helps ease pressure on monetary policy tightening.

Brokers have raised their profit estimates and target prices for Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, after second-quarter 2026 results came in better than expected. Yuanta Securities Thailand raised its 2026 normalized profit forecast by 5.4% to 2.712 billion baht, and its 2027 forecast by 1.3% to 3.124 billion baht. It also lifted its end-2027 fair value to 70 baht per share from 50.50 baht, implying 27.3% upside, and maintained a buy rating. Bualuang Securities raised its 2026 profit estimate by 8.4% and its 2027 estimate by 8.2%, and increased its end-2027 target price to 63 baht per share from 56 baht, also maintaining a buy rating. CBG reported second-quarter 2026 normalized profit of 736 million baht, up 20.5% quarter-on-quarter but down 8% year-on-year, beating expectations of 630 to 650 million baht. Total revenue was 5.829 billion baht, up 9.6% quarter-on-quarter and 4.5% year-on-year, supported by the energy drink business, distribution business, and domestic OEM business, as well as overseas revenue recovering 23.5% quarter-on-quarter on channel expansion in Myanmar and strategy adjustments in the United Kingdom. The company announced an interim dividend for the first half of 1.00 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.8%, with the ex-dividend date on August 27 and payment on September 11, 2026.

Bualuang Securities said net profit of stocks under its coverage in the second quarter of 2026 rose 13% from a year earlier and 12% from the previous quarter, coming in 10% above market expectations and 11% above the company's estimates. Revenue was only 2% above market expectations, reflecting support from higher energy prices and petrochemical spreads, revenue and ARPU in the communications sector, electronics demand, and cost management in the retail sector. Pressure still came from lower meat prices, weak Cambodian and self-pay patients, and higher energy costs in the transport sector. Sectors with standout core profit growth included energy and petrochemicals, electronics, communications, retail, and hotels. Sectors with the main profit declines remained agriculture and food, hospitals, and transport. Although the overall results beat expectations, market expectations are starting to return to a more balanced level, with the proportion of stocks beating profit estimates at 48%, compared with 59% in the previous quarter, but still above the five-year average of 37%. The beat-to-miss ratio was 3.4 times, down from 6.8 times in the previous quarter, but still above the five-year average of 1.1 times. Stocks with profits notably above market expectations included AOT, SCC, PTTGC, and PTT, while DELTA came in below expectations. On the revenue side, only the petrochemical sector clearly beat expectations, while WHA and BAM came in below. The company assesses a mid-2027 SET target of 1,650 points in the base case and 1,710 points in the best case. But with the beat-to-miss ratio starting to decline, it recommends focusing on selective plays in stocks whose earnings are likely to continue recovering in the second half of 2026. These include CBG, whose earnings are expected to have passed their trough in the second quarter of 2026 before returning to year-on-year growth from the third quarter; BH, supported by recovering Thai and Middle Eastern patients, with third-quarter profit expected to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter; and tourism plays AOT, ERW, and CENTEL, after foreign tourist arrivals in July stood at 2.5 million, down 2.5% from a year earlier, but the average daily number rose 16% from the previous month, while Thai hotel RevPAR is expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month.

Bualuang Securities released its review of the financial statements of 11 companies, finding that 8 reported better-than-expected profits: GUNKUL, CK, SPRC, CPF, CBG, AWC, HANA, and BCH. STECON and BH posted profits in line with expectations, while BTS reported a smaller loss than expected. GUNKUL posted core profit of 567 million baht, 7% above expectations. CK posted core profit of 800 million baht, 17% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.20 baht per share. SPRC posted core profit of 7.09 billion baht, 11% above expectations, and announced a first-half dividend of 0.50 baht per share. CPF posted core profit of 4.57 billion baht, 13% above market expectations. CBG posted core profit of 736 million baht, 13% above expectations. AWC posted core profit of 232 million baht, above expectations. HANA posted core profit of 278 million baht, 25% above expectations. BCH posted core profit of 343 million baht, 13% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.15 baht per share. STECON posted core profit of 910 million baht, in line with expectations. BH posted core profit of 1.89 billion baht, in line with expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 4 baht per share. BTS reported a core loss of 601 million baht, smaller than the slight profit originally expected.

Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, reported second quarter 2026 results with total sales revenue of 5.829 billion baht, up 5 percent from the same period last year and up 10 percent from the previous quarter. Sales of Carabao Dang products in Thailand reached 2.053 billion baht, growing 14 percent year on year and 13 percent quarter on quarter, supported by maintaining the retail price at 10 baht and adjusting distribution strategy for broader coverage. Revenue from distribution of other products was 2.598 billion baht, up 23 percent year on year, mainly driven by alcoholic beverage distribution. However, overseas sales declined significantly from last year because sales in Cambodia disappeared, while the Myanmar market continued to grow well, with sales up 53 percent year on year and 16 percent quarter on quarter after the Myanmar plant began commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and is now running at full capacity. Net profit in the second quarter of 2026 was 736 million baht, down 64 million baht or 8 percent year on year, mainly due to lower export revenue, especially in overseas markets, even though total domestic sales still grew well from Carabao Dang and the alcoholic beverage distribution business continued to expand. The board of directors approved a dividend payment to ordinary shareholders at 1.00 baht per share from operating results for the period 1 January to 30 June 2026 and retained earnings. The ex-dividend date is set for 27 August 2026, the record date for shareholders entitled to receive the dividend is 28 August 2026, and the dividend payment date is 11 September 2026.

InnovestX Securities states that the signing of an MOU extending the employment period for over four million Myanmar workers in Thailand by another five years will help unlock the most critical labour bottleneck for Thailand's labour-intensive industrial sector. It also aims to push bilateral trade value to 12 billion US dollars, up from around 7.4 billion dollars, through accelerating border checkpoint restoration, using local currency payment systems, and promoting infrastructure investment, especially the Dawei Special Economic Zone project. However, risks remain from Western sanctions that could pressure the valuation of stocks with concessions or direct investment linked to the Myanmar military government. For short-term investment strategy, the firm recommends speculative trading based on news factors for beneficiary stocks, divided into two themes: groups directly benefiting from more stable labour cost management, such as CK, STECON, GFPT, BTG, CPF, and groups benefiting from a recovering border trade atmosphere, such as MEGA, TNP, CBG, OSP, CHG, BCH.

Globlex Securities, or GBS, estimates that the Thai stock index in August is likely to move in a range of 1,600 to 1,650 points, supported by a more relaxed investment climate for risk assets. This follows President Donald Trump's cancellation of plans to attack Iran and the achievement of a temporary ceasefire agreement, which caused WTI crude oil prices to ease below 80 US dollars per barrel, after having surged past 88 US dollars per barrel. In addition, the OPEC+ group is likely to increase production capacity by another 188,000 barrels per day in September. Meanwhile, investors have reduced the probability of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September to 65 percent from 82 percent, and the European Central Bank kept its policy rate at 2.25 percent. On the domestic front, foreign capital inflows have clearly returned, with net purchases in July reaching as high as 45 billion to 48.7 billion baht, up from 6.86 billion baht in the previous month, bringing cumulative net purchases since the beginning of the year to 73 billion to 74.3 billion baht. This is coupled with June exports expanding 20.8 percent, valued at 34.66 billion US dollars, and headline inflation slowing to 2.42 percent. GBS recommends an investment strategy focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and outstanding second-quarter 2026 earnings growth prospects, namely CBG, STA, BBGI, PR9, and TNP.

Bualuang Securities recommends an August investment strategy using a Defensive Yield Core theme alongside Satellite Alpha through four main themes. It sees the SET Index likely moving in a range of 1,600 to 1,700 points, driven by a broad-based earnings recovery, reflected in SET EPS being revised up by 4.2 percent in July and 6.3 percent since the start of the year. The Core themes consist of the Thailand Power Infrastructure Cycle, supported by data center investments, with electricity demand in the Eastern Economic Corridor reaching as high as 26,045 megawatts while the system can only accommodate 18.7 percent, benefiting stocks like GULF and GUNKUL. The Higher for Longer Defensive-Dividend Rotation theme is expected to see fund inflows into high-dividend stocks, especially in the communications sector where earnings are still growing, such as ADVANC, whose second-quarter 2026 profit is forecast to rise 24 percent year-on-year, and TRUE, up 48 percent year-on-year. For the Satellite Alpha themes, the firm recommends gradual accumulation on price weakness. These include Policy-driven Tourism Recovery, where the tourism sector is expected to have passed its earnings trough in the second quarter of 2026, aided by government measures worth 1.75 billion baht to stimulate the sector, supporting stocks like ERW. The Selective Consumption Recovery theme highlights pockets of consumption still growing, such as COM7 with sales up 8 to 10 percent year-on-year and ADVICE up 13 to 15 percent year-on-year, benefiting stocks like CBG.

Analysts estimate that Carabao Group's profit will recover from the third quarter of 2026 onward, with the contract distribution business, especially fragrant rice liquor, serving as a key new growth engine. The spirits market is worth approximately 80 billion baht, significantly larger than the energy drink market at around 45 billion baht, and CBG holds a spirits market share of about 17 to 18 percent, leaving ample room to expand its customer base. The research division of Land and Houses Securities expects that within the next two to three years, revenue from the distribution business will become the company's main revenue stream, overtaking the energy drink business for the first time. Meanwhile, the energy drink business remains strong due to the strategy of maintaining a selling price of 10 baht per bottle, and international markets such as Myanmar are still growing 20 to 30 percent per year. The business in England will shift to selling concentrate to local partners by early 2027 to end annual losses of about 100 million baht. Bualuang Securities states that profit in the second quarter of 2026 has bottomed out and is expected to recover in the third quarter, continuing into next year, with a fair price of 56 baht per share, while Land and Houses Securities gives a target price of 58 baht with a buy recommendation.

Bualuang Securities expects net profit of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 to expand 24 percent from the same period last year and rise 2 percent from the first quarter, supported by higher energy prices, petrochemical spreads, mobile and internet service revenue, lower network costs, demand for electronic components for artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as new power generation capacity and profits from GULF's overseas power plant business. Meanwhile, the meat sector is pressured by lower meat prices, the banking group by narrowing interest margins, and the hospital group by fewer cash-paying patients and a slowdown in non-urgent treatments. Bualuang Securities highlights two investment approaches: picking stocks with still-strong second-quarter profit trends such as PTT, PTTGC, TRUE, ADVANC, AMATA, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP, and gradually accumulating stocks with weak prices but expected strong profit recovery in the second half, such as CBG, ERW, CPF, and BTG.

ASL Securities estimates that Carabao Group's normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 will recover from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors, but will still decline year-on-year due to a high profit base and weak sales in Cambodia. It expects earnings to return to year-on-year growth from the third quarter of 2026 onward, driven by a recovery in international markets and growth in new businesses. The research team notes that international operations are showing clear signs of recovery, especially in Myanmar and Vietnam, while the distribution business continues to expand and revenue from contract manufacturing under the Love Potion brand is playing a larger role. Domestically, sales through modern trade and retail stores are still growing. Although gross margins are pressured by raw material costs, they are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year. The research team views CBG's valuation as attractive, with limited downside risk to the share price from a 2 billion baht share buyback program running from May 25 to November 24, 2026, with an estimated average buyback price of around 40 baht per share. Additional positive factors include the earnings recovery trend from the third quarter of 2026 and the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon in the second half, which could boost beverage consumption. For 2026 targets, the company aims for 20% domestic revenue growth, increasing its energy drink market share to 32%, and expanding CJ Mall branches to 2,470, an increase of 500 stores. In international markets, it targets 10% sales growth in Vietnam and 20% in Myanmar, while hoping for a recovery in Cambodia after strategy adjustments. The research team maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 3 billion baht, up 39% from the previous year, supported by total revenue expected to grow to 24 billion baht, or a 10.6% increase, driven by a record high energy drink market share of 30 to 32%, continued CJ Mall expansion, and sales growth in Myanmar and Vietnam, along with a recovery in Cambodia. Although gross margins may be affected by higher natural gas prices, with the gross profit margin forecast at 26.7% this year, and selling and administrative expenses will rise due to the renewal of the Carabao Cup sponsorship until 2029, the research team believes that revenue growth and the recovery of international businesses will be key factors driving CBG's earnings back to strong growth this year, with a target price of 52 baht per share.

Bualuang Securities forecasts total net profit of listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 to grow 24 percent compared to the same period last year, and 2 percent from the previous quarter. Supporting factors include the energy and petrochemical sectors benefiting from improved oil prices, refining margins, and petrochemical spreads, as well as continued growth in telecommunications, electronics, industrial estates, retail, and hotels. Meanwhile, banking, meat, and hospital sectors still face pressure. Bualuang Securities recommends two investment strategies: selective play in stocks with still-strong profit growth and no earnings estimate cuts, such as PTT, PTTGC, ADVANC, TRUE, AMATA, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP; and bargain hunting in stocks whose profits have passed their trough and are expected to recover in the second half, such as CBG, ERW, CPF, and BTG.

Bualuang Securities expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to climb to 1,700 points by the end of 2026, supported by foreign fund inflows projected to reach 160 billion baht in net buying for the full year. This follows net purchases of around 70 billion baht since the start of the year, driven by strong earnings growth among listed companies, particularly in the energy and petrochemical sectors, and the appeal of high dividend yields in Thai equities. For the second half, the investment strategy focuses on selective stock picking in sectors with positive catalysts. These include power plant operators benefiting from green energy demand, with recommendations for GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, and WHAUP. The electronics sector is recovering in line with global cycles and AI investment, with KCE as a top pick. Commercial banks offering high dividends are favored, with KBANK and KTB highlighted. Tourism and hotel stocks, where earnings have bottomed out, are represented by ERW and AWC. Consumer goods and food companies poised to gain from hotter weather include CBG and CPF. In portfolio allocation, Bualuang Securities advises investors who can tolerate risk to allocate 60 to 70 percent to equities, split into 30 percent Thai stocks and 70 percent foreign stocks, with the remainder in debt instruments and bonds, primarily focusing on Thai debt securities.

Land and Houses Securities has issued a research note recommending the purchase of GLOBAL and CBG shares, with target prices of 7.90 baht and 58.00 baht, respectively. For GLOBAL, second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to soften from the previous quarter but increase year-on-year, supported by an expanding gross margin from selling price adjustments and the use of low-cost inventory. In the second half, profit is expected to continue growing due to still-high gross margins and effective cost control. For CBG, 2026 revenue is forecast to grow strongly from its integrated distribution model and the expansion of domestic sales channels, with full-year profit estimated at around 3.19 billion baht, up 7.5 percent from the previous year. Although the gross margin in the second quarter may weaken slightly due to raw material costs and geopolitical impacts, a recovery is expected in the third quarter.

Brokers are advising investors to gradually accumulate stocks in the meat and beverage sectors before the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon become pronounced from late this year into early next year. This follows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official declaration on June 11, 2026, that the world has entered El Niño conditions, with a 63% chance it will intensify into a super El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027. This could bring hotter and drier weather than usual to Thailand. Historically, during super El Niño periods, Thailand's average annual rainfall dropped to about 1,446 millimeters, roughly 9.4% below the 40-year long-term average of 1,596 millimeters, while maximum temperatures reached around 41 degrees Celsius, about 2 degrees above normal. In the meat sector, particularly pork, prices are likely to benefit from upward pressure as heat stress slows pig growth and raises disease risk, reducing market supply. Data from 2004 to 2023 shows pork prices rose an average of about 17% during El Niño periods, compared to an average increase of around 12% for chicken. Meanwhile, the beverage and convenience store sectors are expected to be supported by higher beverage consumption during hot weather. Brokers therefore recommend meat stocks such as BTG, TFG, and CPF, and beverage stocks including ICHI, CBG, and OSP, as well as convenience store operator CPALL.