B.Grimm Power Public Company LimitedERC caps electricity tariff at 3.95 baht/unit, constraining fuel cost pass-through; BGRIM most affected among SPP operators.
Asia Plus Securities' research department assesses that the Energy Regulatory Commission's decision to cap the variable electricity tariff for the September–December 2026 period at 16.23 satang per unit, resulting in a total tariff of 3.95 baht per unit, will be a negative factor for SPP power plant operators. This is because the natural gas price assumption used in the calculation has risen by about 4.6% to 363.5 baht per million BTU, while the fuel cost pass-through mechanism remains constrained by the tariff cap through the Clawback subsidy. BGRIM is expected to be the most affected, followed by GPSC. IPP players such as GULF, EGCO, and RATCH face limited impact because their power purchase agreements allow them to pass costs on to the government. The research department views that this issue may pressure SPP group share prices in the short term, but in the medium to long term, earnings will recover in line with the expected decline in gas prices and clarity on the PDP2026 plan in the second half of this year. GULF is selected as a top pick due to its limited impact and strong fundamentals, while BGRIM and GPSC are recommended for gradual accumulation on price corrections.
B.Grimm Power Public Company LimitedERC caps electricity tariff at 3.95 baht/unit, constraining fuel cost pass-through; BGRIM most affected among SPP operators.
Global Power Synergy PCLERC tariff cap pressures SPP operators; GPSC expected to be affected, though less than BGRIM.
Gulf Energy Development Public Company LimitedGULF is an IPP with limited impact from tariff cap due to cost pass-through; selected as top pick.
Electricity Generating Public Company LimitedIPP players like EGCO face limited impact due to cost pass-through in PPAs; mentioned as less affected.
Ratch Group Public Company LimitedRATCH is an IPP with limited impact due to cost pass-through in PPAs; mentioned as less affected.