Ast Spacemobile IncASTS
± MixedCapitalrelevance
Revenue miss and wider loss are negative, but $1.3B backlog and funding are positive, creating mixed impact.
Impact on stocks 1
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Ast Spacemobile IncTheme Impact 1
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Morgan Stanley Sees 99% Upside in SpaceX Ahead of Starship Orbital Test
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target on SpaceX, implying roughly 99% upside, as investors await Starship's first orbital test on September 22. The 14th Starship flight is expected to send the vehicle into orbit and deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites, tying the launch directly to one of SpaceX's biggest growth businesses. CEO Elon Musk has said Starlink V3 deployment will begin in September and that the next-generation satellites could eventually deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of the current constellation. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned maintained an Outperform rating with a $248 target, implying about 64% upside, and said gaining Starship reusability to enable orbital data centers remains most important for SpaceX's valuation; he expects the Connectivity business to generate more than $100 billion in EBITDA by 2031. William Blair analyst Louis DiPalma called the latest deal SpaceXAI's fourth compute agreement in the past four months exceeding $11 billion in ARR, while Wall Street's average SpaceX price target stands at $232.07, implying about 54% upside.
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AST SpaceMobile Hit With Securities Class Action Over Capital Claims and Insider Sales
A securities class action has been filed against AST SpaceMobile and several executives, alleging misleading statements about its capital strength, competitive position in satellite direct-to-cell services, and insider stock sales between March 4, 2025 and July 15, 2026. The lawsuit challenges earlier claims that AST SpaceMobile could fund its satellite constellation rollout without frequent dilution or heavier debt, directly testing one of the company's core investment pillars. The case lands against a backdrop of large convertible note offerings in late 2025 and 2026, with investors already digesting over US$3.0 billion in planned debt financings as AST SpaceMobile pushes toward its target of roughly 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027. The company's narrative projects $2.2 billion revenue and $190.9 million earnings by 2029, requiring 165.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $810 million from -$618.8 million today. Before the lawsuit, the most optimistic analysts assumed AST SpaceMobile could reach about US$2.6 billion of revenue and US$1.3 billion of earnings by 2029.
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Cathie Wood Calls $1.75 Trillion SpaceX IPO a Bargain on Starship Revenue Math
Cathie Wood is calling the $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO a deep value bargain, arguing that a single Starship launch could generate $1 billion in revenue. The ARK Invest founder tied that figure to Elon Musk's goal of 10,000 flights a year by 2030, a cadence that would imply $10 trillion in annual revenue from Starship alone. The math rests on Starlink connectivity revenue of roughly $19 million a year per terabit per second of network capacity, with one Starship carrying about 61 Tbps, though ARK data shows that per-Tbps figure sliding from $23 million in 2024 to $19 million in 2025. The projection assumes every flight carries Starlink capacity, while Musk has framed the 10,000-flight target against commercial air travel, a business that earns no connectivity revenue. Early investors have little to show so far: SPCX priced at $135 in June and closed its first session at $161, but the stock has since spent weeks below its IPO price, and Starship has flown only twice since the listing, both suborbital, with the V3 satellites released in July re-entering and burning up within roughly 20 minutes. The next mission aims to reach Earth orbit for the first time with 26 operational V3 units and would become the first Starship launch to earn commercial revenue.