Direct-to-Device (satellite-to-cell)

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target on SpaceX, implying roughly 99% upside, as investors await Starship's first orbital test on September 22. The 14th Starship flight is expected to send the vehicle into orbit and deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites, tying the launch directly to one of SpaceX's biggest growth businesses. CEO Elon Musk has said Starlink V3 deployment will begin in September and that the next-generation satellites could eventually deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of the current constellation. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned maintained an Outperform rating with a $248 target, implying about 64% upside, and said gaining Starship reusability to enable orbital data centers remains most important for SpaceX's valuation; he expects the Connectivity business to generate more than $100 billion in EBITDA by 2031. William Blair analyst Louis DiPalma called the latest deal SpaceXAI's fourth compute agreement in the past four months exceeding $11 billion in ARR, while Wall Street's average SpaceX price target stands at $232.07, implying about 54% upside.

Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov issued Buy ratings on Rocket Lab USA and AST SpaceMobile, arguing that falling launch costs have pushed the space economy past $500bn in 2025 and put it on track to exceed $1trn by 2030. Filatov set an $83 price target on Rocket Lab, implying 33% upside, citing the company's vertically integrated launch, manufacturing and applications model, a record $2.36 billion backlog at the end of 2Q26 that was up 137% year-over-year, and 2Q26 revenue of $234 million, up 62% year-over-year and more than $3 million above forecast, alongside a GAAP loss of $0.08 per share. Rocket Lab's Electron rocket has made 95 launches to date, including 16 in 2026, and the company has pushed the first launch of its larger Neutron rocket to early next year, with delivery to the launch pad during 4Q26. For AST SpaceMobile, Filatov set a $92 target, implying 53% upside, pointing to its BlueBird satellite constellation, more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships covering roughly 3 billion subscribers, and a $1.3 billion revenue backlog, though the company's 2Q26 GAAP loss of $0.77 per share missed estimates by $0.48. Rocket Lab carries a Strong Buy consensus with a $110.13 average target, while AST SpaceMobile holds a Moderate Buy consensus with an $88.98 average target.

Jim Cramer picked Space Exploration Technologies Corp. as his fantasy flex player on the September 8 episode of Mad Money, citing the company's multi-faceted growth across rockets, Starlink and AI. SpaceX reported second-quarter total revenue of $7.8 billion, up over 90% year-over-year and beating Wall Street estimates by nearly $1 billion, with a Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.09 that also outperformed estimates. The connectivity segment, supported by Starlink, reached 12 million subscribers, while enterprise and government demand pushed segment revenue higher, and the stock trades at roughly 50x to 68x forward sales estimates with a market capitalization hovering near $2 trillion. The company still reported a net loss of $541 million for the quarter, with quarterly capital expenditures running at nearly $18.4 billion to fund Starship manufacturing and orbital compute infrastructure alongside Connectivity and Space operations. Insider Monkey's database of over 1000 hedge funds shows 119 hedge funds held SpaceX during Q2, with VY Capital holding the most prominent position at 271.8 million shares, followed by BAMCO Inc. with nearly 145.8 million shares.

Pivotal Research initiated coverage of SpaceX on September 8 with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, implying roughly 49% upside from recent trading levels. Analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak framed the entire investment case around a single variable, writing that SpaceX's roughly $2 trillion valuation rests almost entirely on Starship reusability, with each vehicle needing to fly 20 to 50 times with relatively cheap, fast refurbishment between launches. He argued that success would let SpaceX deploy far more Starlink satellite capacity and collect tolls from other companies operating in orbit, while failure would leave SpaceX "a different and much smaller company." The call lands amid a wide range of Wall Street views, with targets across 37 analysts spanning $62 to $450 and roughly three-quarters rating the stock a Buy, after SpaceX priced its June IPO at $135 a share and raised $85.7 billion in the largest public offering in history. Second-quarter capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion, including $15.83 billion for AI infrastructure, prompting Bank of America to reiterate a Buy rating and $235 target, JPMorgan to raise its target to $240, Wells Fargo to cut to $215 from $230, and Piper Sandler to lower its target to $140. More than 300 million additional SpaceX shares become eligible for sale on September 9, with a second tranche of similar size scheduled for September 24.

SpaceX is overhauling how it builds its data centers, a shift that could slow the pace of new construction, while its defense business gains ground with the UK. According to The Information, a new management team from the company's rocket division is prioritizing reliability over speed, installing more backup power and cooling systems and testing data centers more thoroughly before they go live, a departure from the Colossus campus in Tennessee where the AI unit brought its first data center online in just 122 days. That speed came with trade-offs including frequent outages, such as a construction-related outage at the Memphis facility last week that knocked some Grok models offline and affected compute customers like Anthropic and Google, and more than a dozen data center leaders have left in recent weeks, replaced by SpaceX engineers. On the defense side, Reuters reported that the UK has spent nearly $40 million on SpaceX satellite services, including around $17.6 million in Starshield services, the military-grade version of Starlink with enhanced encryption, plus $22.3 million in standard Starlink, deploying about 1,000 Starshield and 500 Starlink terminals, making the UK the first country outside the US to publicly acknowledge its use of Starshield. The gains came even as SpaceX absorbed a new supply of shares, with about 319 million insider shares, around 7% of insider stock, becoming eligible for sale on Wednesday, the 90-day mark since SpaceX's June 12 IPO; the company went public at $135 per share in June, raising a record $85.7 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation while floating less than 5% of its stock.

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall said on a September 8 CNBC segment that SpaceX's satellite-plus-spectrum wireless push will hurt incumbent carriers while tower REITs and cable operators quietly profit, arguing the architecture needs far less ground infrastructure than a traditional fourth carrier. The FCC has cleared SpaceX to absorb 65 MHz of EchoStar's U.S. spectrum, which management plans to integrate later next year, and Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million as of Q2 2026. SpaceX's Q2 connectivity revenue reached $4.29 billion, up 66% year over year, on total Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, $3.54 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a $93.5 billion cash position. Cahall named towers and a Wi-Fi offload MVNO with cable as the potential sector winners, noting Crown Castle yields around 5.5% after its fiber divestiture while AT&T contributes 28% of site rental revenue, and Charter's Spectrum Mobile added 406,000 lines with mobile service revenue up 18.9% year over year to $1.095 billion. The thesis carries a real hole: if SpaceX routes around U.S. towers entirely with its own rooftop equipment, the tower leasing bump never lands, and Crown Castle has said only that its sites offer space, power and backhaul with no signed agreement yet. T-Mobile is seen as most exposed because its Direct-to-Cell partnership loses differentiation once SpaceX controls its own spectrum, with TMUS shares down 23.18% over the past year, while Verizon's fixed wireless net additions fell 30.6% year over year.

Iridium Communications and Deutsche Telekom IoT announced the successful transmission of a voice message over Iridium NTN Direct in a demonstration with Toyota, following the completion of technical integration and a global roaming agreement between the two companies. The message was sent from a Toyota vehicle equipped with a Nordic Semiconductor nRF9151 development board and a Deutsche Telekom IoT SIM, and was transmitted entirely via the Iridium satellite network during Telekom Satellite Day 2026. The first message sent, "testing, testing, one, two, freeway," demonstrated standards-based NB-IoT voice messaging over Iridium's fully operational low-Earth orbit satellite constellation, supported by Fraunhofer's AI-based NESC Voice Codec, which operates at bitrates of 1 kb/s or less. With the roaming agreement now completed, eligible Deutsche Telekom IoT customers using compatible standards-based NB-IoT devices will be able to roam between terrestrial networks and Iridium satellites, and selected European customers are already testing applications on the Iridium network using Deutsche Telekom's Global SIM. Iridium NTN Direct is slated for commercial availability in Q4 2026, extending coverage through Iridium's existing global L-band LEO constellation for automotive, logistics, remote utilities, smart agriculture and emergency response applications.

Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone Group, and Telefónica, four major European telecom operators, are in early discussions to establish a consortium to participate in the EU's satellite frequency auction and provide direct-to-mobile communications services. Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. The four companies aim to jointly win the allocation of the 2 GHz band that the EU reserves for operators within the bloc, but a final decision has not yet been made. In May, the EU announced plans to allocate most satellite frequencies for mobile phones to European companies. The European Commission will allocate two-thirds of the frequencies for the multi-orbit satellite constellation "IRIS2," consisting of 290 satellites, to commercial use, and distribute them equally between EU and non-EU operators. The consortium is expected to bid for the EU operator quota. IRIS2 is Europe's initiative to counter SpaceX's Starlink.

AST SpaceMobile shares surged 11% to $62.36 in Wednesday morning trading after Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $92 price target, while Planet Labs climbed 5% to $20.14 on a separate $25 target. Filatov also initiated Rocket Lab at Buy with an $83 target, describing each company as a unique, hard-to-replicate player in the space sector. The Procure Space ETF rose just 0.2%, indicating the moves are isolated bounces rather than broad sector momentum. AST SpaceMobile, which has fallen 23% year to date, is advancing toward the 45 satellites needed for commercial service, while Planet Labs, down 2% year to date, reports earnings on September 3, a key test of its 72% backlog growth to roughly $906 million.

Sceye, a U.S. aerospace company, and SoftBank Corp. have completed a trans-Pacific stratospheric connectivity demonstration, marking a milestone toward commercializing High-Altitude Platform Systems (HAPS). The Service Test 1 (ST1) mission traveled more than 15,000 km from New Mexico to Japan in 13 days, then provided mobile broadband to unmodified devices via SoftBank's core network, along with edge computing and drone communications. During the flight, Sceye's HAPS operated at about 16.5 km altitude, achieved a station-seeking radius as low as 5 km, and demonstrated onboard data processing with an average round-trip response time of 68 milliseconds, reducing latency by over 40% compared to cloud processing. This was the world's first successful test of a mobile core network and web server installed on a HAPS. SoftBank invested in Sceye in 2025, and the companies aim to develop HAPS as a new form of social infrastructure for 6G and beyond.

The U.S. Space Force has awarded five $12 million contracts under a $60 million effort to prove non-SpaceX satellites can plug into the Space Data Network backbone that SpaceX built under a $2.29 billion award in May 2026. The move comes as SpaceX completed its 100th launch of 2026, pushing the Starlink constellation past 11,000 satellites. L3Harris Technologies, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Viasat, and Iridium Communications are directly positioned to benefit from the Pentagon's push to avoid single-vendor dependency in space. Rocket Lab's $8 billion all-stock acquisition of Iridium, announced June 28 and targeted to close mid-2027, would create the only vertically integrated public SpaceX alternative, folding in 66 operational satellites and roughly $870 million in annual revenue.

AST SpaceMobile received temporary FCC approval to test 800 MHz satellite connectivity on commercial devices across two spectrum bands in the U.S. The authorization allows controlled trials using everyday consumer phones rather than specialized hardware. The FCC decision follows recent AST SpaceMobile satellite launches and new commercial partnerships that expanded its direct-to-device footprint. The testing window is designed to advance regulatory cooperation that is important for AST SpaceMobile's future commercial rollout.

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said the company's planned $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications will focus on space services outside the consumer broadband market dominated by Elon Musk's Starlink and Jeff Bezos' Amazon Leo. Speaking on Rocket Lab's second-quarter earnings call, Beck said Iridium's L-band spectrum is the wrong kind for broadband and that competing would be difficult because the two most wealthiest people in the world are going after that. Instead, Rocket Lab plans to expand Iridium into satellite IoT, direct-to-device connectivity, positioning, navigation and timing, defense, aviation and maritime safety. Rocket Lab reported second-quarter revenue of $234.07 million, beating the consensus estimate of $231.35 million, with a loss of 8 cents per share versus the expected 7 cents, and guided third-quarter revenue between $250 million and $265 million, above analysts' estimate of $238.53 million.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell announced on an earnings call that Starlink Mobile will begin service at the end of 2027, aiming to acquire customers from AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. The plan sent shares of all three carriers lower on Wednesday before they rebounded Thursday, with T-Mobile gaining 3.75%, AT&T 2.82%, and Verizon 1.12%. T-Mobile CEO Srini Gopalan told the Financial Times the threat is exaggerated, arguing satellites will remain complementary to cellular networks. Starlink's current direct-to-phone service uses about 5 MHz of borrowed spectrum, but following FCC approval of two SpaceX deals totaling $19.6 billion for 65 MHz of EchoStar spectrum with terrestrial rights, and a planned tenfold increase in next-generation mobile satellites, Shotwell said the upgraded service could be roughly 100 times more capable. Analysts remain skeptical, with Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson telling Reuters it is extraordinarily challenging to imagine a competitive direct-to-consumer service within five years. Shotwell acknowledged the need for a terrestrial component, describing a plan to attach small cellular base stations to Starlink dish mounts rather than building large towers.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk projected that Starlink could eventually generate more than $1 trillion in annual revenue, responding to venture capitalist David Friedberg's bullish assessment on the All-In podcast. Friedberg noted Starlink had 12 million subscribers after doubling its user base year over year, with connectivity revenue reaching $4.29 billion, up 66% year over year, and estimated the business could eventually achieve $40 billion in annual revenue and $30 billion in annual free cash flow. Musk said bandwidth demand will increase massively due to AI and robotics, and even if the communications market merely doubles, he expects Starlink to capture at least 25% of the market outside China, translating to more than $500 billion in annual revenue. He added it is not out of the question that Starlink could carry more than 50% of global internet traffic, potentially generating over $1 trillion annually. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said Starlink Mobile is expected to begin service at the end of 2027 and could attract customers from AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, while T-Mobile's CEO argued satellite connectivity will likely complement traditional cellular networks.

AST SpaceMobile has secured regulatory approval to launch direct-to-cell satellite services in Japan in partnership with Rakuten Mobile. The company plans to support Japan-based connectivity using its BlueBird satellites, which recently earned a Guinness World Record for deploying the largest commercial communications arrays in low Earth orbit. These developments support AST SpaceMobile's goal of starting commercial beta services later this year and expand its presence into a new key market. The stock has been volatile, with shares at $68.38 after a 28.9% gain over the past week, a 15.2% decline over the past month, and a 32.0% rise over the past year.

SpaceX is laying the groundwork for a hybrid mobile network that could compete directly with established U.S. wireless carriers, a market generating over $300 billion in annual revenue. President Gwynne Shotwell confirmed during the Q2 earnings call that the company will deploy a terrestrial small-cell network alongside its satellite-based Direct-to-Cell system, which currently serves as backup connectivity for areas without cellular coverage. SpaceX has secured 65 MHz of nationwide mid-band spectrum from EchoStar and is in reported partnership discussions with Charter Communications to access broadband-connected locations and Wi-Fi offload infrastructure. However, analysts note significant hurdles, including satellite capacity limits in dense urban areas, indoor coverage challenges, and the operational complexity of running a consumer wireless business with billing, customer support, and retention. The U.S. wireless market is highly sticky, with major carriers losing only about 1% of postpaid subscribers monthly, meaning SpaceX would need to offer a substantially better experience or significantly lower prices to gain meaningful share.

AST SpaceMobile announced the expansion of network integration testing across Europe in collaboration with leading mobile network operators Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica, Deutsche Telekom, and Vodafone Ukraine. The testing, subject to regulatory approvals, is underway in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Romania, France, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, and Ukraine, leveraging the carrier-neutral gateway infrastructure of Satellite Connect Europe, a joint venture between AST SpaceMobile and Vodafone. The initiative aims to integrate AST SpaceMobile's space-based cellular broadband service with existing terrestrial networks using standard, unmodified smartphones. The company works with nearly 60 mobile network operators globally, representing over 3 billion existing subscribers, and its satellite technology is backed by approximately 3,900 patent and patent-pending claims.

AST SpaceMobile is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 10, 2026, after market close, with consensus estimates pegging revenue at $34.13 million and a loss of 28 cents per share. The company successfully launched BlueBird satellites 8, 9 and 10 during the quarter and secured FCC approval to commercially offer its SpaceMobile Service across the United States, authorizing a constellation of up to 248 satellites in partnership with AT&T and Verizon. AST SpaceMobile targets roughly 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026 and has agreements with nearly 60 mobile network operators representing more than three billion subscribers. However, intensifying competition from SpaceX's Starlink, Globalstar and others, along with substantial capital requirements and unproven large-scale consumer adoption, remain key concerns. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -1.56%, suggesting no clear earnings beat signal.

SpaceX shares rose 4% and AST SpaceMobile jumped 9% on Tuesday as traders positioned ahead of SpaceX's first-ever earnings report as a public company, due after the market close. SpaceX stock traded at $119, while AST SpaceMobile reached $69 and Rocket Lab gained 6% to $74.34, reversing a brutal July selloff that had seen the sector drop roughly 25% to 33%. The rally lifted the broader space complex, with Intuitive Machines up 7% to $14, Planet Labs up 6% to $22.75, and the Procure Space ETF up 4% to $47. Analysts expect SpaceX to report a Q2 2026 net loss of around $1.9 billion on revenue near $6.9 billion, driven by its Starlink business. The report will be followed by an analyst call led by Elon Musk, with Starlink subscriber growth and Musk's tone seen as key swing factors. Separately, SpaceX's IPO lockup expires Thursday, unleashing over 911 million shares worth roughly $100 billion in potential supply overhang.

AST SpaceMobile has scheduled August 5 as the launch date for its next three BlueBird satellites, using a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The company currently has nine satellites in orbit and aims to deploy 45 to 60 of its large, unfolding BlueBird satellites to provide continuous coverage in high-priority markets. This launch follows a successful June 17 deployment of three satellites and comes after the loss of BlueBird 7 in April due to an orbit insertion error by Blue Origin. AST SpaceMobile sells satellite connectivity to mobile network operators like AT&T and Verizon, splitting revenue evenly, rather than offering direct-to-consumer broadband like SpaceX's Starlink. With shares down 56.4% from their highs, the company faces pressure to execute its deployment plans without further delays.

US space company SpaceX conducted the 13th test flight of its massive Starship spacecraft on the 24th, deploying 20 upgraded satellites for its Starlink satellite internet service into space. The deployed satellites are V3 models with significantly increased bandwidth and communication speeds. They temporarily connected to the existing network of roughly 10,000 satellites in orbit before re-entering the atmosphere and burning up. Starship completed its roughly one-hour mission with a splashdown in the Indian Ocean, sustaining only minimal damage to its heat shield. Meanwhile, the first-stage Super Heavy booster failed to reignite five of its engines and fell into the Gulf of Mexico with a harder-than-expected impact. SpaceX plans to use Starship to expand the Starlink network with V3 satellites by the end of 2026, adding capacity for mobile phones to connect directly to satellites even outside cellular coverage areas.

AST SpaceMobile is identified as a compelling space stock to buy during a potential market crash, given its unique position in the low Earth orbit satellite communications sector. The company, which produces satellites twice the size of SpaceX's Starlink arrays, partners with telecom giants like AT&T and Verizon to extend broadband to rural areas, and processes data on the ground using upgradeable Radio Access Network software. Analysts project AST's revenue to grow from $71 million in 2025 to $1.87 billion in 2028, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive in 2027 and reaching $1.39 billion in 2028. With an enterprise value of $20.7 billion, the stock trades at 12 times projected 2028 revenue and 16 times projected adjusted EBITDA, and a market crash that halves those valuations could present a significant buying opportunity.

Analysts expect AST SpaceMobile to grow its revenue at a compounded annual growth rate of 246% through 2028, significantly faster than SpaceX's projected 69% CAGR over the same period. According to LSEG data, AST SpaceMobile's revenue is forecast to reach nearly $2 billion by 2028, up from $166 million this year, while SpaceX's revenue is projected to total more than $103 billion in 2028. Despite the faster growth, AST SpaceMobile trades at a price-to-sales multiple of nearly 190, compared to about 80 times revenue for SpaceX, making both stocks expensive and risky. AST SpaceMobile shares are down about 20% so far in 2026, and SpaceX has dipped below its IPO price after a strong initial rally.