BDMS Q2/26 profit seen as year's low; 'Buy' call with target of 22.80 baht

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Asia Plus Securities assesses that BDMS's Q2/26 earnings trend will mark the lowest point of the year, with an expected slowdown both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year in the high single digits, due to the low tourism season, a high base of Cambodian patient revenue last year, and the impact of the Middle East conflict. However, it maintains its full-year revenue estimate at 110.522 billion baht, down 0.9%, and net profit at 14.714 billion baht, down 7.2%, which is more conservative than management's target of 2-4% revenue growth this year. Thai patients have plans to increase service uptake through health packages, while foreign patient numbers, excluding Cambodia and the Middle East, continue to grow strongly. On a positive note, BDMS is advancing the WellEra project with an investment value of 29 billion baht on a prime corner plot at Sarasin-Lang Suan Road to tap the global wellness market. The project comprises a Wellness Residence worth 22-23 billion baht, a BDMS Wellness Clinic Urban Wellness Retreat, and lifestyle retail. A soft launch is scheduled for Q4/26, with construction completion and transfer expected in 2030. Management aims to push this segment's contribution to 20% by 2035. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' recommendation with a fair price of 22.80 baht per share. On the technical front, the stock is forming a major double-bottom support at 19.20 baht and staging a technical rebound in a lower-up pattern, with resistance at 20.10 and 20.70 baht.

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