Bitcoin Monthly Analysis: Near Four-Year Cycle Bottom, but Reversal Signal Not Yet Lit

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โดย NADA NEWS·Read original
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Bitcoin rose about 9.6% in July and is trading around the 10.4 million yen level, but the monthly candle remains below the three-month moving average of 10.52 million yen, keeping the bearish trend intact. Exchange balances began a gradual decline after peaking in mid-July but remain elevated. The annualized futures basis rate has climbed to around 3.8%, indicating rising investor expectations, while inflows into US spot ETFs have been unstable, turning to net outflows again in the second half of the month. Amid hopes for the US CLARITY Act, clear bottoming signals seen in past troughs—such as significant exchange outflows and deleveraging—have yet to be confirmed, warranting a cautious stance until a reversal is verified.

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