Galaxy Digital Holdings LtdGalaxy Research lowered probability of CLARITY Act passing to 30%, indicating regulatory setback for crypto.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said the crypto industry will keep moving forward even if the CLARITY Act risks failing this week and becoming a zombie bill. He believes crypto has advanced too far to be put back in the bottle, and Washington is always late to major technological shifts. The Senate faces an August 5 deadline to push through this key crypto market structure bill before the summer recess. If it fails, it could be delayed until next year as members focus on the November midterm elections. Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the bill passing in 2026 to 30 percent, while Polymarket gives only a 23 percent chance of it being signed into law this year, down from 82 percent in February. Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, said the bill still lacks sufficient bipartisan support, and without signs of progress from the White House, Senate Democrats will block a cloture vote. Hougan remains hopeful the bill could pass in September or December during a lame duck session, possibly included in an omnibus package. But if it fails, the industry will revert to the joint SEC-CFTC interpretive policy issued in March, which classifies Bitcoin and other assets as digital commodities, replacing the 2019 SEC staff guidance. SEC Chair Paul Atkins confirmed the agency is ready to issue rules addressing the same issues as CLARITY, but agency rules are not as durable as legislation and could be challenged in court or reversed by a new administration. Ryan Louvar, Chief Legal Officer at WisdomTree, argued that the absence of a law will hinder the market because participants cannot predict which agency's rules will apply. Hougan concluded that crypto will be fine because there are still two and a half years to accelerate before a new administration might appoint a new SEC, and he stressed that crypto has enough momentum to overhaul finance for decades to come no matter what happens.
Galaxy Digital Holdings LtdGalaxy Research lowered probability of CLARITY Act passing to 30%, indicating regulatory setback for crypto.
WisdomTree Inc.WisdomTree's CLO argues absence of law hinders market due to regulatory uncertainty.
NYDIG's head says bill lacks bipartisan support, indicating regulatory headwinds for crypto.
Bitwise CIO remains hopeful but acknowledges bill may stall; impact on company unclear.