BNP Paribas expects Microsoft's revenue growth and capex to accelerate in upcoming earnings

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BNP Paribas expects Microsoft's fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results to show a revenue growth acceleration and a higher capital expenditure outlook. The bank forecasts Azure growth of 41% versus a roughly 40% consensus, with Copilot seat additions of 7 to 8 million possibly reaching over 30 million given seasonally stronger bookings. For fiscal year 2027, BNP Paribas models revenue growth of 18% compared to the 16.8% consensus, which could act as a stock catalyst, while raising its fiscal 2027 capex forecast by 15% to $262 billion due to component inflation. The firm maintains an Outperform rating but lowers its target price to $549 from $555. Microsoft reports after the market close on July 29, with consensus estimates of adjusted earnings per share of $4.24 on revenue of $87.67 billion.

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BNP Paribas expects revenue growth acceleration and higher capex, maintaining Outperform rating.

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