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The Digital Frontier Finance Parliamentary League, a caucus of lawmakers within Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, is expected to begin studying how to handle "prediction markets," where participants trade on forecasts of future events such as election results and economic indicators, according to party officials interviewed by NADA NEWS. The caucus was established in 2023 by developing and dissolving the Commodity Futures Trading Promotion Parliamentary League, which had worked to promote commodity futures trading, and includes online banks, securities firms, and crypto asset exchanges among its participants. In prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket of the United States are the leading players, with monthly trading volume reaching the tens of billions of dollars, and some forecasts see the market hitting 1 trillion dollars by 2030. On the other hand, the New York State Attorney General filed suit on April 21, arguing that the prediction market services of Coinbase and Gemini are illegal gambling that violates state law, and sought a total of 3.4 billion dollars in damages. In Japan as well, at the House of Councillors Finance and Monetary Affairs Committee on April 21, opposition Democratic Party for the People Councillor Shuichi Harada raised prediction markets in the Diet for the first time, and Toshitake Inoue, Director-General of the Financial Services Agency's Planning and Markets Bureau, said the agency currently has no regulatory law covering them, adding that given the risk they could be regarded as gambling, "we need to respond with extreme caution." Under current law, a mechanism in which people stake their own funds and vie for gains or losses of property depending on the outcome cannot be ruled out as falling under the criminal offense of gambling, so the barriers to introducing or expanding such businesses remain high. Still, a party official said it is highly significant that an LDP parliamentary caucus has decided to treat prediction markets as one of its discussion topics, and revealed that executives from Kalshi and Polymarket are planning to visit Japan soon.

Payward, the parent company of U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, has again delayed its initial public offering, saying it will not go public until the second quarter of 2027 at the earliest. This is the second postponement for the Wyoming-based firm, which had previously delayed its IPO in March of this year, citing difficult market conditions and declining cryptocurrency prices. The latest delay comes despite a rally in crypto prices, with Bitcoin rising nearly 25% in August, but equity markets remain volatile amid rising bond yields and crude oil prices as the U.S. and Iran conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, crypto firms that have gone public recently have performed poorly, with rival exchange Gemini's stock down 87% since its September 2025 debut. Payward confidentially filed with the SEC in November 2025 after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000, and most recently raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation, reporting second-quarter revenue of $508 million, up 17% year over year, with funded accounts rising 42% to 6.6 million.

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini reported a $107.7 million U.S. net loss for the second quarter as trading in digital assets slowed on its platform. The company, led by twin brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, said the latest net loss narrowed 19% from a loss of $133.2 million U.S. in the same period last year. Total revenue rose 19% to $45.5 million U.S. from $33.3 million U.S. a year earlier. Revenue from Gemini's credit cards rose 231% year-over-year to $16.2 million U.S., while staking revenue grew 50% to $4 million U.S. However, trading revenue fell 38% to $12.5 million U.S. amid a total trading volume drop to $3.8 billion U.S. from $11.3 billion U.S. a year ago. Gemini's prediction market generated $500,000 U.S. in revenue, up slightly from $400,000 U.S. following its launch in December 2025. GEMI stock is down 5% on Aug. 14 and has declined 87% since going public last September to trade at $4.08 U.S. per share.

New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin announced an investigation into Coinbase, Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini Titan, sending letters seeking details on their marketing practices. The Council is examining potentially false, deceptive or abusive marketing, with particular concern about advertising that may reach young people, and Menin's letters posed more than 60 questions with a 14-day response deadline. The probe adds to existing regulatory pressure, as New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Coinbase and Gemini in April alleging their prediction market businesses constituted illegal, unlicensed gambling. On Tuesday, the CFTC ordered Kalshi to keep operating while its legal fight with New York plays out, a direct response to a separate lawsuit James filed seeking to block the exchange from offering event contracts and demanding more than $36 billion in damages. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New York has no business regulating these interstate financial markets, though the order does not end James' lawsuit, leaving the underlying dispute over state and federal authority unresolved.