Several securities firms estimate that Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, will post robust growth in core operating profit for the second quarter of 2026, with forecasts ranging from 9.1 billion baht to 18.9 billion baht, up both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. This is driven by market refining margins holding steady at high levels of around 21 to 24 dollars per barrel, amid geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, net profit will be pressured by extraordinary items, particularly oil stock losses and net realizable value adjustments expected to be recognized at approximately 6.8 billion baht to 10.2 billion baht, along with foreign exchange losses and hedging contract losses of around 1.5 to 1.8 billion baht, and an impairment charge for the CFP project of about 1.0 billion baht. The base lubricant business is showing improving trends due to tight supply, while the aromatics business remains sluggish from narrowing spreads. Most brokers recommend a hold or trading stance, with target prices ranging from 60 to 70 baht, and forecast a full-year 2026 dividend of around 4.20 baht per share, representing a yield of approximately 6.6 percent per annum.
Thai Oil Public Company LimitedCore profit growth from high refining margins due to geopolitical tensions and Strait of Hormuz closure, but net profit weighed by oil stock losses, FX losses, and impairment.