Thai Oil Public Company Limited

CGS International (Thailand) or CGSI stated in its analysis that it maintains a positive view on the Thai refining group. Although China is increasing exports of refined oil products, it is expected to be a gradual easing, as China prioritizes domestic energy security. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict may delay the start of operations at the Huajin Aramco refinery to October-November 2026. Excluding the recovery in refining volumes during the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, global refining volumes are likely to decline by more than 2 million barrels per day in 2026. Additionally, Iranian and Houthi attacks have reduced refinery utilization rates in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait since March 2026, and Russian refineries have been attacked by drones, turning Russia into a net importer of diesel. Although surging diesel prices may cause demand destruction of about 330,000 barrels per day, the supply reduction of more than 1 million barrels per day supports Asian crack spreads. Tight heavy crude supply pressures heavy distillate production, and Russia's LSFO export ban helps keep crack spreads elevated. Thai refinery stocks have risen significantly and may face profit-taking, but CGSI views any pullback as an accumulation opportunity, especially for TOP, SPRC, and BCP, as strong GRM in the first half of 2026 will generate cash flow and support attractive dividends. However, it maintains a Neutral rating on the Thai oil and gas group due to concerns over downstream petrochemicals.

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has raised its 2026 Singapore refining margin forecast to $19.60 per barrel from $5.40, and for 2027 to $9.60 per barrel, citing tight refinery supply due to limited new capacity, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and damage to refineries in the Middle East. For Q3 2026, the Singapore refining margin is expected to rise to $25.20 per barrel before gradually declining to $16.80 in Q4. KKPS has selected Thai Oil (TOP) as its top pick, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation and raising its target price by 7.3% to 80.50 baht, implying 33.6% upside and an expected dividend yield of 9.6%. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC) is the next top pick, with its target price raised by 64.4% to 14.80 baht, implying 21.3% upside and a dividend yield of 14%.

The National Innovation Agency (NIA) hosted the GLOBAL STARTUP HUB DEMO DAY 2026, bringing together 30 selected startups in the fields of AI, IoT, Semiconductor, EV & Mobility, Energy Tech, and Climate Tech & Sustainability to present results after business matching with over 60 large corporations. The goal is to drive them toward Proof of Concept (PoC) testing with leading organizations such as Thailand Post, Central Retail, PTT, Thai Oil, and AIS, aiming to reduce industrial risks and create shortcuts to sales and commercial investment. Dr. Krishpaka Boonfueng, Director of NIA, stated that this project is a mechanism under the Groom – Grant – Growth – Global approach to enhance the business readiness and international market readiness of Thai startups. The PoC process will allow startups to validate their technology against real-world challenges and establish reference cases for future market expansion.

Kasikorn Securities said net profit of the energy and petrochemical sector in the second quarter of 2026 rose 302% from a year earlier and 63% from the previous quarter to 128 billion baht, driven by tight supply conditions in the Middle East that supported crude oil prices and petroleum and petrochemical product spreads. Refining businesses benefited from stronger refining margins, while exploration and production businesses benefited from higher selling prices, and petrochemical businesses benefited from wider olefin spreads. The research team expects third-quarter 2026 profit to soften from the previous quarter due to an exceptionally high base in the second quarter of 2026, but refining margins remain elevated because of continued operational problems at refineries in Russia. It raised its energy sector profit estimates by 21% and 12% respectively, based on higher refining margin assumptions of 18.7 US dollars per barrel and 9.7 dollars per barrel, up from 14.2 dollars per barrel and 7.9 dollars per barrel, and raised target prices for refinery stocks and PTT, selecting TOP as its top pick because it is expected to continue benefiting from strong refining margins.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that PTT has maintained energy security even as geopolitical conflicts increasingly disrupt energy transport, supported by the capability of its trading business to access supply sources worldwide. The company can still procure crude oil and feedstock for downstream operations to continue production, with refinery utilization in its group at 103% in the first half of 2026, compared with a normal level of 104% in the first half of 2025, versus the region where run rates have been cut by 8 to 17 percent, led by Chinese refineries. On the petrochemical side, olefins utilization in the first half of 2026 rose to 86%, compared with 80% in the first half of 2025, allowing the company to benefit from higher margins amid persistently tight supply. PTT maintains its target to keep expanding its trading business over the long term, aiming to diversify crude oil procurement sources to strengthen energy security and to expand trading into more fuel types. It keeps its target to increase LNG trading volume by about three times to 10 million tonnes per annum by 2030, versus 1.75 million tonnes per annum in the first half of 2026 and a 2026 target of 3.7 million tonnes per annum. The company is generating stronger cash flow, supported by nearly all businesses, and is considering increasing shareholder returns. First-half 2026 EBITDA and net profit rose 55% and 75% year on year respectively, supported by tight energy supply from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This drove higher margins in the exploration and production business along with crude oil prices, supported the gas business through lower costs from gas price restructuring and higher reference selling prices, and helped the refinery and petrochemical businesses through recovering refining margins and product spreads. These factors are expected to continue supporting year-on-year growth in the second half of 2026, leading to an improving cash flow trend. Net debt to EBITDA is likely to keep declining from 1.26 times in the first half of 2026, compared with 1.75 times in 2025, leaving excess liquidity to pay dividends to shareholders at no less than the industry average. PTT maintains its asset monetization plan and its search for strategic partners to reduce financial costs and strengthen long-term competitiveness. It keeps its target to carry out asset monetization of about 100 billion baht during 2025 to 2027, with 18 billion baht already completed from 2025 through the first half of 2026, to use liquidity to reduce debt and improve the ability to withstand long-term business volatility. It also maintains its plan to seek strategic partners or a Genesis transaction to enhance competitiveness in feedstock procurement and long-term funding sources, with progress now expected to be delayed into 2027 because the war in the Middle East and government intervention have affected negotiations. Krungsri Securities views this as slightly positive for PTT, as management is considering higher shareholder returns based on excess liquidity. This makes the forecast 2026 dividend of about 2.3 baht per share, or a yield of 5.6%, which is close to the 2025 level that included a special dividend, more likely and possibly subject to upside, compared with expected dividend yields of no less than 6 to 7 percent for PTTEP and TOP. The delay in concluding a strategic partner or Genesis transaction during the war is not worse than expected, and the broker maintains its view that it does not reduce the competitiveness of PTT and its subsidiaries, while stronger current business conditions increase bargaining power in negotiations. Krungsri Securities maintains its view that normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 will grow year on year, still supported by nearly all businesses from upstream to downstream. Gas price restructuring has reduced feed costs for gas separation plants by 17% year on year, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised reference selling prices. Subsidiary businesses are supported by persistently tight supply, boosting margins at PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, and IRPC. The broker maintains a Buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 44.5 baht. It keeps its view that the business is in a recovery phase, with the gas business turning around from gas restructuring and the refinery and petrochemical businesses benefiting from tighter supply as less new capacity comes online and global production restructuring takes place. This is keeping refining margins above the ten-year average and lifting petrochemical spreads back to long-term profitable levels, supporting normalized profit growth at a compound annual growth rate of 18% during 2026 to 2028.

Newspapers report that PTT has unveiled a five-year investment plan worth 1 trillion baht, pushing into petroleum exploration and production and infrastructure businesses, with PTTEP as the spearhead for investment, supporting the government's policy to drive Thai GDP growth of 3 percent. PTT will also co-host Gastech 2026 from September 14 to 17, moving ahead to seek partners to strengthen PTTGC, TOP, and IRPC, expanding LNG imports to 15 million tonnes in 2035 and targeting an increase in the share of overseas revenue to 50 percent. Meanwhile, BGRIM is pursuing energy megatrends, developing projects to support PDP 2026 and highlighting data center business as a star after signing power purchase agreements for 100 megawatts, with new customers set to add another 150 megawatts. It is also studying construction of new power plants to support data centers and preparing to bid for Quick Big Win projects to drive community solar of 300 to 500 megawatts. SGC is adjusting its loan portfolio, pushing Lock Phone with a yield of 25 percent and targeting an increase in its share to 65 percent of the portfolio. It is set to sell C4C for no more than 1.3 billion baht and preparing cash to support the high season in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. SINGER-SGC is moving to clear accumulated losses, hoping to unlock dividend payments after SGC has posted profits for eight consecutive quarters. SPCG has been taken over by the Phokachai Pattana group teaming up with Jaruthavee in a deal worth more than 5.527 billion baht, opening a full-scale offensive in green energy business in response to the new PDP 2026 plan and the unlocking of direct power purchase agreements. SPCG is found to hold hidden land assets in the Eastern Economic Corridor of more than 3,000 rai, and is moving ahead to sell electricity directly to customers of the Bangkok Free Trade Zone project of the MK group in Bang Pakong Industrial Estate. ERW is confident that the third quarter of 2026 will be strong, with total revenue growing 7 percent after July average revenue per room rose 5 percent, supported by a bright tourism outlook in the second half, driving full-year revenue growth of 6 percent to 8.4 billion baht. It is advancing the JUMP+ plan toward a target of 10 billion baht in 2028. IND believes the second half of 2026 can maintain good growth momentum after first-half results showed net profit of 13.33 million baht and service revenue of 413.31 million baht. SO continues toward a double-digit growth target, with cumulative revenue plus backlog awaiting recognition at 2.894 billion baht, or 93.2 percent of the full-year revenue target of 3.1 billion baht. THAI is adjusting strategy to cope with surging oil prices, increasing hedging to 60 percent for two years ahead as the Middle East situation looks set to drag on. It plans no reduction in available seat kilometers in the second half and will resume flights on two routes, Xiamen and Da Nang, while increasing frequency on three European routes: Paris, Munich, and Zurich. It is confident of maintaining operating profitability this year, while the aircraft procurement plan continues, with a fleet of 102 aircraft by the end of this year before rising to 128 in 2028. PRM is paying a special dividend of 0.20 baht per share from retained earnings, with the ex-dividend date set for August 27, after second-quarter 2026 results showed net profit of 580.5 million baht, up 20.2 percent, and total service revenue of 2.3171 billion baht, up 4.5 percent. INET is confident of continued growth, developing INET-IDC4 to reflect rising domestic demand for cloud infrastructure and strengthening Thai organizations toward data sovereignty. It is currently developing the EduPass system with the Ministry of Education, expected to launch within six months. SAMART is confident of a strong second-half recovery, benefiting from SAV's busy flights, while the direct coding business has passed its lowest point. It is preparing to bid for new projects worth nearly 10 billion baht, expecting the government to gradually approve and open bidding from October onward, supporting total backlog to exceed 20 billion baht by the end of this year. BAM is accelerating in the second half, generating revenue from non-performing loans, non-performing assets, and joint venture asset management companies toward set targets. It reported second-quarter 2026 collections of 3.513 billion baht, up 16 percent, with profit of more than 234 million baht, up 8 percent, while helping more customers restructure debt through the New Start with BAM program. BCH reported strong third-quarter 2026 operating results as the high season began showing good signs from late May through June, believing foreign customers will continue to recover and drive year-end results higher. It revealed it is in talks on more than 10 merger and acquisition deals and preparing to meet with the Social Security board to adjust capitation rates for all items, expected to be completed by October 2026. TFG is benefiting from high farm-gate pig prices of 72 to 74 baht per kilogram, expected to hold until September, while chicken prices have also edged up. Export demand for chicken in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Japan remains strong. It has locked in soybean and soybean meal prices until the end of 2026 to manage raw material costs, and is expanding retail stores to 875 branches by the end of this year before surpassing 1,075 branches by the end of next year. JR is set to benefit from the new PDP round, creating opportunities for additional system installation work. It signaled that the second half of 2026 will outperform the first half, supported by recognition of additional projects, and is preparing to bid for new electrical projects worth another 100 million baht, boosting backlog from 5 billion baht. It is shifting more toward quick wins to fill its portfolio and generate steady revenue. KUMWEL is building Kumwel Clinic with a target of covering 10 provinces by the end of the year, set to book revenue from the third quarter, while also eyeing BOI Plus incentives worth 100 million baht. The data center megatrend is driving demand for lightning protection and grounding systems, opening opportunities for many new projects. It is confident that 2026 revenue will grow strongly by 50 percent. ORI has laid out a three-year JUMP+ plan to accelerate performance to 1.43 billion baht in 2028, highlighting a build-operate-exit-reinvest model to develop hotels and warehouses for added value before selling into REITs to recycle capital for new investments. In the second half, it is set to book revenue from asset and land sales of another 1.5 to 1.8 billion baht. TOA is adjusting strategy to penetrate the economy paint segment, targeting rental property customers, while expanding in construction and repair chemicals to capture home renovation demand. It is proceeding with planned investment of about 600 million baht, expected to accelerate in late third quarter of 2026, focusing on new production development and targeting sales growth of 5 percent. PRINC has set a 2026 target of revenue growth exceeding 10 percent from the previous year, reaping full-year benefits from new hospital investments and a growing customer base. It said third-quarter 2026 performance will be better than the second quarter, supported by the high season and rising service usage, plus benefits from the Happitat project opening, which will continue to boost Prince Suvarnabhumi Hospital. It is upgrading complex disease services and expanding its foreign customer base to support margins. READY is expanding its Plus Customer base among medium-sized businesses with annual revenue of 30 to 300 million baht, aiming to build recurring revenue beyond its existing share of more than 90 percent. It is accelerating the use of AI to enhance products and internal systems, and launching Ready Agent-R Service, targeting revenue growth of 7 percent this year. PCE signaled a bright second half of 2026, benefiting from domestic demand for B100 biodiesel. It is expanding production capacity at its palm oil refinery for edible oil, expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026 to support food industry growth. It is confident of strong growth in value-added products and manages integrated infrastructure to control costs efficiently across the system, supporting sustainable growth. ORN revealed a bright business outlook for the third quarter of 2026, with a solid backlog of 4.26 billion baht and continuous transfers of low-rise and high-rise projects. It is preparing to launch The Next Jed Yod 4 condominium on August 22, along with sales campaigns, and plans to expand community malls to Phuket, with opening targeted for early 2027.

Morgan Stanley has raised its target prices on six Thai energy and refinery stocks: PTT to 44.90 baht from 39.40 baht, TOP to 87 baht from 70 baht, PTTGC to 59 baht from 43 baht, OR to 14.60 baht from 14.30 baht, BCP to 65.70 baht from 51 baht, and SPRC to 19.70 baht from 12.90 baht. The moves reflect a positive view on the outlook for Thailand's energy and refinery sector, especially for SPRC, PTTGC, TOP and BCP, which received significant target-price increases. Sorachai Pittayapruek, director of analysis at Krungsri Securities, assesses that the petrochemical industry is entering the early stage of a new recovery cycle after facing oversupply pressure since 2023. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a catalyst for faster market rebalancing, because some plants that already had plans to reduce or halt production can use the situation as a reason to stop operations and cut product deliveries, removing a large amount of supply from the market during the crisis. However, once the Hormuz closure situation eases, product spreads may correct in the short term in the third quarter of 2026, but they are unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2025, because not all of the old plant capacity that has been gradually shut down can come back to the market. Sorachai estimates that the petrochemical industry has a chance to reach balance sooner than previously expected. He had earlier estimated that the market could reach equilibrium in 2029, assuming plastic resin demand grows by an average of 1 to 2 percent per year and no severe economic recession hits. Once excess supply declines to the point of balance, producers' pricing power will increase, opening the opportunity for product spreads to sustainably stand above 500 US dollars per tonne. His recommended standout stocks are PTTGC and SCC in the petrochemical group, with BCP as the top pick in the refinery group, along with a buy recommendation on IVL and hold recommendations on SPRC and TOP.

PTT has announced an investment budget of 28 billion baht this year to expand its pipeline system and LNG terminals, and has set a five-year investment target for the PTT Group of about 1 trillion baht. The company plans to issue bonds late this year and will seek board approval for an interim dividend in September. It also acknowledged that finding partners to co-invest in petrochemicals and refining may be delayed from the original plan. Dr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT Public Company Limited, said the company has prepared a 2026 investment budget of about 28 billion baht, of which around 10 billion baht was spent in the first half, and is confident it will be fully utilized as planned in discussions with the Ministry of Finance. The PTT Group's five-year investment target is about 1 trillion baht, covering PTTEP projects, TOP's CFP project, PTT's pipeline system, and expansion of the LNG trading business. The group currently has total cash flow of about 425 billion baht, of which PTT accounts for about 120 billion baht, after borrowing about 70 billion baht from SCB at the end of the second quarter of 2026 and borrowing up to about 150 billion baht from financial institutions at peak periods. Approval of the 2026 interim dividend is expected to be considered by the board of directors within September, and the company is considering issuing PTT bonds late this year to meet customer demand, without specifying the amount. Last year it issued about 20 billion baht, and this year about 30 billion baht of bonds mature. The company has shareholder approval for bond issuance of about 100 billion baht per year. For the second-half business plan, the company sees global energy conditions as highly uncertain and difficult to predict due to geopolitical factors and decisions by leaders of various countries. The PTT Group is therefore focusing on internal management and operational efficiency to prepare for changing conditions, while affirming that national energy security remains a key mission and the public will not face energy shortages. In the LNG business, the company aims to increase LNG procurement to 10 million tonnes per year by 2030 and to 15 million tonnes per year by 2035, up from this year's target of 3.7 million tonnes per year, after reaching 1.75 million tonnes per year in the first half of 2026, by seeking investment opportunities both on the supply side, such as the United States, and in end-user markets in regions such as China, South Korea, and Europe. On progress in finding partners for petrochemicals and refining, the company continues to seek global partners to strengthen its flagship business while adjusting its approach amid changing conditions from Middle East unrest and government policy factors. However, it acknowledged that the timeline may need to shift from the original plan of achieving clarity this year, because the situation in the Middle East has changed the fundamentals of feedstock sourcing. This is a deliberate slowdown to gain clarity on feedstock sources before making large investments. Key criteria for selecting partners are not limited to capital, but require partners who can strengthen technology, improve efficiency, reduce costs, or help the company access more flexible and diversified feedstock sources globally. Dr. Kongkrapan said some partners currently in talks have feedstock and some have markets, while some previous partners may have slowed down because the flexibility of feedstock sources now known may not yet be sufficient. The goal is for partners to help extend the business, make it stronger, and provide more flexibility in bringing feedstock sources. However, more new partners have entered discussions, especially business groups seeking to diversify production and feedstock sources away from certain Middle East regions, though the company cannot yet identify which companies they are. The PTT Group is accelerating internal strengthening, improving performance, and creating added value from collaboration within the group of more than 8.7 billion baht through Profit Enhancement Initiatives, including the MissionX project, while driving digital transformation through the AXIS project, focusing on applying digital tools and AI. It is also strengthening supply chain and marketing cooperation domestically and internationally through the P1 and D1 projects, alongside Financial Excellence initiatives to maintain financial discipline and manage the group's cash flow efficiently, which are key foundations for sustainable growth and long-term shareholder returns, as well as maintaining a credit rating equivalent to the sovereign level. This supports energy stability and business growth. The PTT Group also supports government measures and helps mitigate energy price impacts on the public, with the estimated value of government support measures at about 17.5 billion baht, of which PTT's share is more than 8.5 billion baht.

Shares of Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, rose 4.49% to 64.00 baht after brokers assessed that second-half refining margins are recovering more strongly than expected. Globlex Securities expects the gross refining margin in the third quarter of 2026 to reach 24.5 dollars per barrel, and 15.3 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, significantly above TOP's own estimates. The broker views product price spreads for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline as still elevated, while global oil product supply is tight because worldwide refinery runs fell by about 5 million barrels per day in July 2026. Globlex maintains a buy recommendation and a target price of 88 baht, implying upside of about 40.2%, and forecasts 2026 net profit of 28.279 billion baht, up 93.9% from the previous year.

Bualuang Securities reported second-quarter 2026 results for eight energy companies under its coverage, with combined net profit of 109 billion baht, up 195% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter. Core profit totaled 127 billion baht, up 237% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter. The refinery group was the main driver, boosted by higher revenue and margins from selling prices and elevated GRM and GIM amid the war situation. BCP, PTT and SPRC beat expectations, while IRPC, PTTEP and TOP were in line. BANPU and OR came in below expectations. The group's overall financial position remains strong, with SPRC in a net cash position, OR near net cash, and PTTEP holding net debt to equity of only 0.1 times, followed by TOP and PTT. BCP stood at 0.7 times, while BANPU and IRPC were higher than the group at 1.0 times and 0.9 times respectively. On cash flow, PTT and PTTEP have posted positive operating cash flow and free cash flow for six consecutive quarters, while BANPU is the only company that has not yet generated positive free cash flow during that period. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, most management teams are cautious but still positive. Oil prices and GRM are expected to decline from the previous quarter as supply increases after Middle East tensions ease, but they should remain high compared with a year earlier. OR is more positive, expecting oil sales volume and marketing margin to improve from the previous quarter. The research team views BCP, PTT, PTTEP and SPRC as having potential to pay high dividend yields of around 6 to 10 percent in 2026, and around 5 to 7 percent over the medium term. PTT remains the top pick on strong earnings momentum and an attractive dividend yield.

Finansia Syrus Securities recommends trading Thai Oil, or TOP, based on an average target price from the IAA Consensus of 68.82 baht. Brent crude rose about 2% to 91 dollars per barrel after tensions in the Middle East flared again following the end of a 60-day ceasefire. At the same time, third-quarter 2026 earnings momentum is expected to remain strong, supported by unusually high refining margins of about 25 dollars per barrel. If crude oil at the end of the quarter stays above 73 dollars per barrel, inventory gains would provide additional support. The brokerage sets support at 62.25 baht and resistance at 65 to 66 baht and 68.75 baht.

PTT Group reported combined second-quarter profit for 2025 of 103 billion baht, up 157% from the same period last year. This brought first-half combined profit to 175 billion baht, an increase of 106%. PTT Public Company Limited posted net profit of 52.525 billion baht, up more than 100%, driven by higher price spreads and bond buybacks. PTT Exploration and Production recorded net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101%, supported by record average sales volume of 572,882 barrels of oil equivalent per day. PTT Global Chemical swung to a profit of 12.208 billion baht from a loss of 3.616 billion baht a year earlier. Thai Oil posted net profit of 8.284 billion baht, up 28%. PTT Oil and Retail Business reported a net loss of 1.774 billion baht, compared with a profit of 2.232 billion baht a year earlier. IRPC swung to a profit of 2.921 billion baht from a loss of 2.132 billion baht. Global Power Synergy recorded net profit of 1.819 billion baht, down 10%.

Asia Plus Securities notes that TOP reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 8.6 billion baht, down 56.0% from the previous quarter, in line with expectations. The result was pressured by special items swinging to total expenses of 7.7 billion baht, compared with income of about 9.9 billion baht in the prior period, mainly from a reversal to inventory losses under net realizable value of 7.6 billion baht and foreign exchange losses of 689.5 million baht. Core profit rose 69.6% from the previous quarter to 16 billion baht, supported by the refinery business, as market gross refining margin increased to 21.2 from 12.6 US dollars per barrel amid war conditions that lifted spreads across all products. The research team maintains its 2026 core profit estimate at about 29 billion baht and expects third-quarter core profit to decline from the second quarter, assuming the war does not intensify as in the first round. It recommends only trading based on fund flows in the energy and petrochemical sector, and expects full-year 2026 dividends of about 4.20 baht per share, implying a dividend yield of 6.6% per year, with the first half likely to pay about 2.0 to 2.2 baht, pending approval at the meeting on 27 August. Krungsri Securities views the second-quarter 2026 core profit of about 17 billion baht as slightly positive, with strong growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, close to its estimate. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened oil supply, lifting refining margins to 21.2 US dollars per barrel, up 308% year-on-year and 68% quarter-on-quarter. It maintains the view that second-half 2026 core profit will grow year-on-year on tight supply but slow from the first half because crude premiums remain high and product spreads are starting to narrow. The research team rolls over to a 2027 target price of 70.0 baht per share and keeps a Neutral recommendation, saying the current price is close to full value and already reflects earnings above normal levels in 2026 to 2027 to some extent. It maintains the view that investors can hold for dividends and wait for upside from progress in the CFP project dispute.

Bualuang Securities noted in its analysis today that 12 listed companies reported financial results, split into 6 companies with better-than-expected earnings: PTT, AOT, ERW, PLANB, GFPT, and AMATA, and 6 companies with in-line earnings: TOP, BEM, BGRIM, BDMS, TIDLOR, and OSP, with no company reporting earnings below expectations. PTT reported 2Q26 net profit of 52.5 billion baht, up 144% year on year and 104% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations, driven by better-than-expected gas business profits. AOT reported 3Q26 net profit of 4.44 billion baht, 6% above analyst expectations and 17% above market expectations, due to lower-than-expected staff expenses. ERW reported 2Q26 core profit of 72 million baht, up 16% year on year but down 81% quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, beating analyst expectations. GFPT reported 2Q26 core profit of 582 million baht, down 12% year on year but up 20% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. PLANB reported 2Q26 core profit of 297 million baht, up 10% year on year but down 43% quarter on quarter, 4 to 6 percent above analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. AMATA reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.58 billion baht, up 1,032% year on year and 15% quarter on quarter, 13% above analyst expectations and 16% above market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.60 baht per share. For the in-line earnings group, TOP reported 2Q26 core profit of 16 billion baht, up 378% year on year and 74% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 11% above market expectations, driven by higher refining margins and lube base margins. BGRIM reported 2Q26 core profit of 478 million baht, up 1% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.18 baht per share. BEM reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.01 billion baht, up 2% year on year and 16% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. BDMS reported 2Q26 core profit of 3.25 billion baht, down 7% year on year and 20% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 7% below market expectations. TIDLOR reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.53 billion baht, up 18% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. OSP reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.10 billion baht, up 9% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. AAV reported a 2Q26 net loss of 2.33 billion baht, swinging from a net profit both year on year and quarter on quarter, with results in line with analyst expectations but the loss 17% smaller than market expectations.

Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 8.3 billion baht, down 58% from the previous quarter but up 28% from a year earlier, and 11-17% above Yuanta Securities and Bloomberg Consensus estimates, driven by a refining margin of 21.2 US dollars per barrel versus the 20.5 US dollars per barrel expected. Normalised profit was 17.6 billion baht, up 78% from the previous quarter and 641% from a year earlier. Special items included hedging losses of 1.4 billion baht, FX losses of 690 million baht, a CFP asset impairment of 1 billion baht, and pre-tax inventory losses including NRV of 7.6 billion baht. Yuanta Securities maintained a Trading recommendation and a fair value of 70 baht, forecasting 2026 net profit of 31 billion baht and an interim dividend for the first half of 1.90 baht per share, implying a yield of 2.9%.

MSCI rebalancing supports Thai stocks with net inflows of 500 million baht. GUNKUL and HANA surprised by entering the small-cap index, while PTTEP and TRUE received higher weightings. The market impact is expected to be neutral to slightly positive. PTT posted second-quarter profit for fiscal year 2026 surging 143.9 percent to 52.525 billion baht, supported by international trading, petrochemicals, refining and oil businesses as product price spreads improved, pushing first-half profit to 78.263 billion baht, up 74.5 percent. TOP reported net profit of 8.284 billion baht, up 28 percent year-on-year, with first-half net profit of 27.765 billion baht, and is moving ahead with the CFP project scheduled for 2028. AOT showed third-quarter profit for fiscal year 2026 of 4.44168 billion baht, up 14.93 percent, supported by a 2.61 percent increase in aeronautical revenue, especially passenger service charge revenue rising by 168.36 million baht, or 2.85 percent, after the charge was raised from 730 baht to 1,120 baht per person, pushing nine-month net profit to 14.81233 billion baht, up 3.86 percent, while total passengers reached 99.03 million, up 1.84 percent, with an average target price of 67.56 baht. BGRIM posted second-quarter profit for fiscal year 2026 growing by 676 million baht, up 9,557 percent, on higher total electricity sales volume, and continues expanding its renewable portfolio, targeting six LNG cargoes of 280,000 tonnes this year and gradually achieving commercial operation dates for new power plants, with an interim dividend of 0.18 baht per share. ACE reported second-quarter net profit for fiscal year 2026 of 278.7 million baht, surging 87.3 percent, supported by strong growth in solar and waste-to-energy power plants and lower financial costs, and is advancing a clean energy portfolio of 92 projects with total capacity of 767.42 megawatts. MGC posted second-quarter profit for fiscal year 2026 surging 554 percent to 352 million baht, a record high for four consecutive quarters, pushing first-half net profit to 675 million baht, up 521 percent, supported by deliveries of XPENG and Alpha X electric vehicles growing 688 percent, and the board approved an interim dividend of 0.24 baht per share with the XD date on 26 August. JMART's CEO is confident second-half profit for fiscal year 2026 will exceed the first half, driven by the lock-phone business, SINGER, JMT and Suki Tee Noi, maintaining a profit target for 2028 of more than 2 billion baht. ACE said it will continue seeking opportunities to bid for clean energy power plants in the second half of 2026 and accelerate construction of new projects, expecting several more projects to reach commercial operation by 2027. 88TH has laid out three growth strategies, expanding the LYO portfolio into China and Hong Kong and building a new S-curve in the pet business through Monster Lab, with new revenue expected to be recognised from the second half of 2026 after second-quarter revenue reached 151.82 million baht, up 10.16 percent. GFC is shifting its second-half strategy with digital marketing plans targeting Gen Z to drive egg-freezing services, while accelerating expansion of its foreign customer base through nine agents, aiming to raise the foreign customer share to 25 percent, partnering with more than eight hospitals, and approving an interim dividend of 0.03 baht per share. ILINK expects solar product sales revenue to double this year, benefiting from government subsidies of 50,000 baht per household for rooftop installation and a 200,000 baht tax deduction, with about 9 billion baht in auctions still pending, and hinted third-quarter results will grow on surging trading and engineering demand. III expects second-half performance to improve as the freight transport business enters its high season, advancing its Logistics and Beyond strategy to build an aviation ecosystem, with two to three M&A deals under negotiation and expected to be concluded within this year, while raising this year's revenue growth target to 20 percent from 15 percent, after posting second-quarter profit for fiscal year 2026 of 140.9 million baht, a ten-quarter high. SAWAD is pushing ahead at full speed, benefiting from the high season in the second half, confident this year's growth will meet targets, with first-half profit of 2.74 billion baht, up 16 percent, and brokers see SAWAD's asset quality as having passed its lowest point. TEAMG posted first-half revenue for fiscal year 2026 of 1.266 billion baht, up 22 percent, and profit of 111 million baht, up 18 percent, after second-quarter revenue of 635 million baht, up 19 percent, and profit of 61 million baht, up 29 percent, with the zoo phase two and light red line rail projects lifting backlog to 5.988 billion baht, and targets new work of at least 1 billion baht in the second half. KLINIQ posted second-quarter net profit for fiscal year 2026 surging to 111.53 million baht, up 24.9 percent, pushing first-half profit to 232.66 million baht, and the board approved an interim dividend of 0.88 baht per share with the XD date on 27 August and payment on 11 September 2026. PIS posted first-half net profit of 164 million baht, up 8 percent, with total revenue reaching 1.531 billion baht, up 6 percent, on continued project deliveries and effective cost control, and the second-half outlook is bright as it bids for new work to add to a backlog of more than 6.096 billion baht to be recognised over the next three to four years, confident of driving this year's revenue growth of 10 to 15 percent. MTC is expanding its loan portfolio amid Thailand's slowing economy, with first-half revenue of 16.064 billion baht, up 8.63 percent, and net profit of 3.728 billion baht, up 15.84 percent, while keeping NPLs at 2.61 percent and expressing confidence that second-half loan growth will be around 10 percent.

Brent crude oil prices jumped 5% overnight after negotiations between Iran and the United States stalled. Iran stated it will not open the Strait of Hormuz until the US meets six conditions, including ending threats and blasphemous remarks, permanently ceasing war and aggression against Iran and its allies, ending the naval blockade and withdrawing military forces, compensating for war damages, lifting sanctions, and unconditionally returning frozen assets. This has led to expectations of prolonged talks and tight market supply, supporting a positive outlook for energy stocks, namely PTTEP, PTT, TOP, BCP, and SPRC.

Analysts expect PTT to report a record net profit of 49 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026 on August 13, driven by strong gas and exploration and production businesses amid higher oil prices and Middle East supply concerns, as well as gains from oil price hedging contracts that reversed from losses in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, four of the seven subsidiaries under PTT Group have already announced their second-quarter 2026 results, with PTTGC standing out with a net profit of 12.208 billion baht, swinging from a loss a year earlier and surging 278 percent from the previous quarter. PTTEP posted a net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101 percent year-on-year. GPSC reported a net profit of 1.8191 billion baht, down 9.91 percent year-on-year but up 6 percent from the prior quarter. OR was the weakest performer, swinging to a net loss of 1.77495 billion baht from a profit of 2.2318 billion baht a year earlier and a profit of 2.414752 billion baht in the first quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities said the overall performance of PTT Group was much better than market expectations, especially PTTGC and PTTEP, which will be key profit contributors driving PTT's results higher as well. For the third quarter of 2026 outlook, the refining group still has positive factors from Brent crude oil prices above 80 dollars per barrel and expected strong refining margins, with top picks being TOP with a target price of 61 baht and PTTGC with a target price of 46.50 baht.

Kasikorn Securities has maintained a buy recommendation on Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, with a target price of 66.70 baht, assessing that the earnings trend for the third quarter of 2026 remains strong due to high petroleum product margins and an expected increase in refinery utilization rates, as there are no planned maintenance shutdowns. In the third quarter to date, gasoline margins have averaged about 30.9 US dollars per barrel and diesel margins about 57.4 dollars per barrel, while gasoline and diesel products together account for roughly two-thirds of TOP's refinery output. For the second quarter of 2026, net profit is estimated at approximately 7.8 billion baht, down around 60 percent from the previous quarter, due to oil stock losses and inventory revaluation totaling about 6.8 billion baht, but the refinery business remains strong, with the market gross refining margin expected to rise to 23.5 US dollars per barrel from 12.7 dollars per barrel in the prior quarter, and the refinery utilization rate at 107 percent, though down from 113 percent due to a one-month maintenance shutdown. Kasikorn Securities forecasts net profit for 2026 at approximately 25.031 billion baht, up from 14.584 billion baht in 2025.

Second-quarter 2025 earnings for US refiners stood out on surging refining margins. Valero Energy posted a net profit of 3.7 billion US dollars, a more than fivefold increase. HF Sinclair reported net profit of 892 million US dollars, up nearly four times, while PBF Energy swung to a net profit of 915 million US dollars from a net loss a year earlier. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum are also expected to report strong results. For Thai refiners, although they too benefit from refining margins, each company's performance will differ, depending on refinery configuration, crude oil quality, production efficiency, price risk management, and inventory gains or losses in each period. In addition, refiners must shoulder rising hidden costs, such as crude oil premiums, freight rates, and higher insurance premiums driven by Middle East risk, which could add as much as 3 to 6 baht per litre. They also face risks from oil inventory losses, higher financing costs from increased working capital, pressure from government and social measures, and the need to invest in the clean energy transition under Net Zero targets and ESG standards. Key listed Thai companies with core oil refining operations include Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, while PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has a refining business as part of its integrated structure.

Crude oil prices remain elevated, with WTI holding above 84 dollars per barrel and Brent near 91 dollars, after Trump signaled readiness to launch further strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, US crude inventories fell by the most in over a month, reflecting a tight oil market. Iran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, fueling market concerns that conflict and oil supply risks may persist. Research analysts view this as positive for energy and refinery stocks such as PTTEP, PTT, TOP, SPRC, and BCP, given sustained high oil prices, but negative for companies where energy is a major input cost, while adding to broader inflation worries.

CGS International Securities Thailand maintains a buy recommendation on Thai Oil Public Company Limited, raising its target price to 70 baht from 59.50 baht, after lifting its 2026 earnings per share forecast by 31.4 percent. It assesses that strong market refining margins will offset higher crude oil costs. The new target price still offers 8.9 percent upside from the current price. Supporting factors include Asia crack spreads staying elevated, as more Russian refineries halt operations and China's refined oil product exports remain low, tightening supply. CGSI has raised its market refining margin assumption to 13.4 US dollars per barrel in 2026, and expects TOP to post revenue of 487.94 billion baht, EBITDA of 50.12 billion baht, and net profit of 30.63 billion baht in 2026.

Asia Plus Securities' research unit says new US tariff measures under Section 301, one of the risks to Thai exports in the second half of the year, will slow exports because Thailand faces a 12.5% levy, higher than some ASEAN peers like the Philippines and Malaysia, potentially reducing competitiveness. Thailand also runs a growing surplus with the US, and markets must watch for surplus-production tariffs the US has yet to announce, which will pressure the Thai economy's export sector. Product groups hit by the 12.5% tariff include pet food, processed food, and beverages, covering stocks such as AAI, ITC, PLUS, TU, and COCOCO, as well as electronics, including HANA, DELTA, KCE, and CCET. Major Thai goods exempted from the 12.5% tariff are oil, gas, and fertiliser, which the US imports heavily, easing pressure on refinery and oil stocks like PTT, PTTEP, TOP, IRPC, and BCP, and goods already under Section 232, such as automobiles, steel, aluminium, and copper, which eases pressure on processed steel and steel pipe stocks like PAP, TMT, and SAM, and auto parts stocks like AH and SAT. The Commerce Ministry reported that Thai exports in June 2026 grew 20.8% year-on-year, above the market forecast of 15.2%, while imports rose 50.3%, above the 35.8% forecast, resulting in a trade deficit of 6.565 billion US dollars. Standout products included pet food, up 22.3%, expanding for a tenth straight month; rubber, up 12.5%, returning to growth for the first time in 14 months; and processed chicken, up 6.1%, expanding for a seventh consecutive month.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assesses that the Thai stock market is in a consolidation phase, with resistance framed at 1,650 and 1,665 points and support at 1,630 and 1,626 points. This comes amid pressure from Brent crude oil prices surging past $100 per barrel, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to test 4.7%, its highest in 1 year and 7 months, and the baht weakening to a 15-month low of 33.82 per dollar. Also weighing are US import tariff measures under Section 301 at rates of 10 to 12.5% on 60 countries, effective from 24 July 2026, though the impact on Thailand is limited as key exports like electronic parts and semiconductors are not covered. KSS expects stocks in the energy, energy security, and commercial banking sectors to be the main pillars supporting the index. It recommends standout energy stocks including PTT, PTTEP, BCP, TOP, and SPRC. In banking, it recommends KBANK and KTB. In telecoms, it recommends ADVANC and TRUE. In construction, it recommends STECON, PYLON, and INSET. In industrial estates, it recommends AMATA and WHA.

Shares in the refinery and petrochemical sector posted strong gains in morning trade today, with SPRC leading the pack, up 8.63 percent to 10.70 baht. TOP rose 1.56 percent to 65.00 baht, IRPC added 1.77 percent to 2.30 baht, BCP gained 1.67 percent to 45.75 baht, and PTTGC edged up 0.25 percent to 40.75 baht. Krungsri Securities' research unit expects SPRC to report a core operating profit of approximately 6.71 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, a jump of 3,386 percent from the same period a year earlier and a 314 percent increase from the previous quarter. That core profit came in above the research team's earlier estimate, as crude premiums were lower than expected while global supply of crude oil and petroleum products was tighter than assessed. Meanwhile, Land and Houses Securities estimates TOP will post a core profit of around 16 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 479 percent year-on-year, supported by strong refining margins despite extraordinary losses from oil stockpiles. Krungsri Securities has raised its 2026 core profit forecast for SPRC by 303 percent to 14.87 billion baht and maintains a buy rating with a target price of 11.50 baht. Land and Houses Securities recommends a speculative buy on TOP with a target price of 66 baht.

Kasikorn Securities notes that Brent crude prices surged past 100 dollars per barrel after President Donald Trump threatened to escalate strikes on Iran and deliver a massive response if the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea again. Meanwhile, the Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers, widening the conflict and heightening risks to global energy shipping routes. Both the US and Iran still show no willingness to return to negotiations. Analysts view this as positive for energy and refinery stocks such as PTTEP, PTT, TOP, SPRC, and BCP, given elevated oil prices and refining margins, but negative for energy-intensive stocks and the broader market due to inflation and higher interest-rate risks.

US stocks closed sharply lower overnight, with the Dow falling 507 points or 0.97% and the Nasdaq dropping 2%, after Brent crude oil prices surged 7% following attacks by Yemen's Houthi group on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, stoking inflation fears. Tech stocks fell heavily, with Google down 7% and Meta down 3.4%, while defensive plays like Eli Lilly gained 1.97% and Johnson & Johnson added 1.4%. Meanwhile, the US announced tariff hikes on imports from 60 countries including Thailand at rates of 10% to 12.5% under Section 301, citing failure to curb forced labor, a factor pressuring Thai export stocks such as ITC and Thai Union, though a weaker baht provided some support. Pi Securities estimates the SET index range today at 1,620 to 1,650 points and recommends defensive stocks like Advanced Info Service, Bangkok Chain Hospital, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, CP All, and Central Pattana, as well as energy and petrochemical plays such as PTT, PTT Exploration and Production, PTT Global Chemical, and Thai Oil.

Asia Plus Securities estimates that TOP's core profit in the second quarter of 2026 will rise 74.9 percent from the previous quarter to approximately 17 billion baht, supported by market refining margins that are expected to increase to 21.1 US dollars per barrel from 12.7 US dollars per barrel in the prior quarter, as the war situation pushes up product spreads across the board. This is despite higher crude oil costs, insurance, freight, and crude premiums, as well as the impact of government intervention to reduce diesel ex-refinery prices. However, net profit in the second quarter is forecast to fall 31.9 percent from the previous quarter to around 8.5 billion baht, due to extraordinary items swinging to a net expense of about 8.6 billion baht from income of roughly 9.9 billion baht in the prior quarter. The main reasons are a reversal to an oil stock loss including net realizable value of approximately 7.2 billion baht, a decline in foreign exchange gains to about 690 million baht, and an impairment charge on the CFP project assets of around 1.0 billion baht. The research team has raised its 2026 profit forecast to about 30 billion baht, more than doubling from the previous year, and lifted its full-year refining margin assumption to 14 US dollars per barrel from 7 US dollars per barrel previously. It also sets a 2027 target price of 68 baht per share and recommends trading in line with fund flows into the energy and petrochemical sectors. The full-year 2026 dividend is estimated at approximately 4.20 baht per share, implying a dividend yield of 6.6 percent per annum.