Bualuang Overweights Power Plant Stocks on PDP2026 Plan

Analyst
โดย thunhoon.com·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Bualuang Securities maintains an "overweight" rating on power plant stocks, viewing the PDP2026 plan as reshaping Thailand's new power investment structure. All four approaches under PDP2026 involve investment plans from 2026 to 2030 totaling 50.9GW, comprising Solar 24.3GW, BESS 14.5GW, CCGT 9.1GW, Wind 2.7GW, and SMR 0.3GW. Meanwhile, the Energy Regulatory Commission estimates data center demand in 2030 ranging from 6.8GW in the low case to 19.8GW in the high case, but the PDP uses only the low-to-mid case as a base due to grid constraints. Direct PPA via TPA has received policy approval from the National Energy Policy Council on July 15, 2026, targeting data centers and large power users. The research house points out that PDP2026 and Direct PPA could create upside to 2028 earnings, with GPSC having the highest earnings upside at +25.8–37.5% under the assumption of 2–3GW additional capacity, but at the cost of net gearing rising from 0.59x to 0.95–1.14x. BGRIM has an upside of +11.1–24.4% with 0.5–1GW additional capacity, but faces constraints from a higher base net gearing of 1.56x. GULF has an upside of +10.0–12.1% at 5–6GW, or additional profit of about 3.7–4.4 billion baht, the highest in value terms. GUNKUL has +8.7–20.3% at 0.5–1GW and benefits from a low base net gearing of only 0.22x. WHAUP has +18.1% at 0.5GW, as an alternative that benefits from data centers/EEC through connection fees and utility volume rather than direct power sales. Bualuang Research selects GULF and GUNKUL as top picks, with GULF standing out for its scale and full business coverage across Solar, Wind, BESS, and gas flexibility, along with the highest profit upside in value terms. GUNKUL is a high-beta play with a balance sheet better able to support investment, given a base net gearing of only 0.22x in 2028. BGRIM is a recovery play with high Direct-PPA leverage, while GPSC is an option with the highest earnings upside if capacity is awarded as assumed. WHAUP is a secondary infrastructure play on the data center/EEC theme. Key near-term catalysts are the public hearing on September 8, 2026, and the details of the wheeling charge for Direct PPA, which remain unresolved.

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