Natural Gas Value Chain

Rabobank strategists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot say sharply higher oil and natural gas forecasts will lift headline Eurozone inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027. The revision reflects an energy shock that the strategists say is reshaping the outlook for the currency bloc. The higher headline inflation path is tied directly to the bank's upgraded assumptions for oil and natural gas prices. The strategists did not specify how the energy-driven increase might affect core inflation or European Central Bank policy.

Alliant Energy is planning nearly $3 billion of infrastructure investment in 2026 and $13.4 billion through 2029, an approximately 12% compound annual growth rate in investment across generation, transmission and distribution. The company said the spending, including allowances for funds used during construction, is expected to support 5-7% earnings growth through 2029. Alliant has secured 3.4 gigawatts of contracted large-customer demand, which it expects to support nearly 60% growth in projected electricity demand by 2031, and it signed a 370-megawatt Iowa electric service agreement, with additional opportunities of 2-4 gigawatts progressing. The company recently received final permits to proceed with construction of the 720-megawatt Bobcat Energy Center in Marshalltown, Iowa, a natural gas-fired facility intended to add flexible generation capacity. For comparison, PPL Corporation plans to invest about $23 billion through 2029 to support approximately 10.3% average annual rate-base growth, while FirstEnergy plans $36 billion of capital investments through 2030 under its Energize365 program.

Meta Platforms raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $130 billion to $145 billion, including principal payments on finance leases, narrowed from a prior $125 billion to $145 billion range in its Q2 2026 report on July 29, 2026. The forward guidance nearly doubles Meta's full-year 2025 capex of $72.215 billion, and Q2 capital expenditures alone reached $31.1 billion, driven by servers, data centers, and network infrastructure. To fund the build, Meta ended Q2 with $90.3 billion in cash and marketable securities and $83.7 billion in debt, and announced a strategic venture with BlackRock to develop a one gigawatt data center in El Paso, Texas. CFO Susan Li said Meta is demand constrained today, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company is receiving quite a number of offers at a meaningful premium over what we paid for the compute, framing direct compute sales as one leg of a portfolio that also includes APIs, business agents, productivity tools, and subscriptions. The strain is visible in the quarterly numbers: Q2 free cash flow was $784 million, down 91.31% year over year, and operating margin compressed to 31% from 43%, even as Q2 revenue reached $60.801 billion, up 27.96% year over year and above the $60.286 billion consensus, with advertising revenue of $59.4 billion, up 27%.

Diesel prices have hit an all-time high of 644 and gasoline is about 10 cents off its May peak, raising the question of whether energy costs will start shocking company earnings. JB Hunt warned earlier this week that its bottom line is being hit by the swift rise in diesel prices, saying it expects a quarter-to-quarter profit decline of 5 to 10 percent because pricing cannot be adjusted quickly enough. PNC Asset Management Group CIO Amanda Agati said she does not expect energy costs to crack the trajectory of earnings growth, noting positive revisions coming into the end of the third quarter remain positive and largely broad-based. Agati said companies are scrambling to hedge in this environment and that margins have been impressive for years, but warned that if energy prices remain elevated a year from now, the story would be very different. The discussion comes as diesel sits just pennies away from an adjusted inflation record.

Caterpillar announced on September 15 that its self-driving haul trucks at a Luck Stone quarry are moving large tonnage, with expansion to two more Virginia quarries, Boscobel and Bealeton, including the first autonomous deployment of Cat 775 trucks. The company disclosed no order value, truck count, or profit contribution from the autonomy milestone, and autonomy was named on the earnings call only as a source of higher SG&A and R&D expenses inside Resource Industries. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached $20.5 billion, up 24% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $8.17, up 73%, while backlog climbed to $72 billion, up roughly $35 billion versus a year earlier. Power & Energy is the engine, with segment sales up 17% to $8.2 billion and power generation sales up 72% on large gensets and turbines for data centers, and gas prime orders extend toward the back half of 2028 and into 2029. Caterpillar trades at $798.51 against a consensus analyst target of $975.61, a trailing PE of 34x, and full-year tariff costs of around $2.2 billion for 2026, with expected IEEPA tariff recoveries of approximately $400 million.

Mr. Bandit Thammaprachit, Chief Operating Officer of the Upstream Petroleum and Natural Gas Business Group at PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, disclosed that amid the energy transition, natural gas continues to play an important role both as a transition fuel and a destination fuel, especially in Asia, where energy demand is still trending upward, driven by the power sector, the industrial sector, and new sources of demand such as data centers and AI. He also noted that LNG procurement models are shifting from a point-to-point LNG system to a connected flexible network that links supply sources, shipping routes, infrastructure, and destination markets together. PTT therefore places importance on developing both gas and LNG infrastructure and its LNG portfolio in parallel, with two key approaches: first, developing infrastructure to be more connected and flexible, moving from having capacity to having connectivity and flexibility through enhanced storage, reload, re-export, break-bulk, and ship-to-ship capabilities, as well as a virtual inventory approach; and second, building a diversified and flexible LNG portfolio by spreading diversity across supply sources, regions, sellers, contract types, transportation, and destination markets, while balancing long-term contracts that serve as the foundation of supply security with short-term and spot market procurement. Through the development of connected infrastructure alongside a flexible LNG portfolio, PTT aims to elevate Thailand's potential to become the region's physical LNG delivery hub, in order to strengthen the security and flexibility of the Thai energy system.

BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said on Thursday 17 September that capacity constraints across Asia's power grid systems are tightening steadily, as rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence technology and data centres puts heavy pressure on power systems. In a report, BMI Country Risk and Industry Research said the firm had raised its electricity consumption forecasts for several markets, including Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, driven by data centre investment and the expansion of AI computing workloads. It expects electricity consumption to grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% in Thailand, 3.3% in Malaysia and 5.6% in Vietnam over the next 10 years. The report also said tighter regulation in Thailand, Malaysia and Australia is limiting growth in demand for power connected to transmission systems, and regulators are expected to keep scrutiny strict to protect grid stability. BMI also expects a recovery in thermal power plants, particularly in emerging markets, as policymakers turn to dispatchable generating capacity amid strong demand and tightening grid conditions.

The PTT Group is pressing ahead in the global energy market by signing liquefied natural gas, or LNG, sales and purchase agreements and reaching cooperation agreements with international business partners at Gastech 2026, in a move to strengthen its capabilities and increase flexibility in sourcing and managing energy from various sources around the world. The first agreement is a long-term LNG sales and purchase contract between PTT International Trading Co., Ltd., or PTTT, and GS Energy Trading Singapore Pte. Ltd., or GSETS, a leading energy company from the Republic of Korea. It marks the first long-term LNG sale by PTTT to GSETS. Dr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT Public Company Limited, and Mr. Yongsoo Huh, Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of GS Energy Corporation, witnessed the signing. PTTT also signed a cooperation agreement with Korea East-West Power Co., Ltd., or EWP, to seek cooperation opportunities in the LNG business, covering efficiency improvements in management, joint investment in upstream businesses, and other areas aligned with the future business goals of both parties. In addition, PTTT signed a long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement with Equinor ASA, or Equinor, another leading energy company, from the Kingdom of Norway. This strategic cooperation reflects the PTT Group's potential to connect energy sources from around the world and supports its goal of becoming a Global LNG Player, in order to grow sustainably on the international stage.

Energy Minister Eknat Prompan revealed that hosting Gastech 2026 in Bangkok from September 14-17, 2026 generated negotiations and business deals worth a combined total of at least 20 billion US dollars over the four days of the event. The event was held at the BITEC exhibition and convention center in Bangkok, with around 50,000 participants from 150 countries, more than 1,000 executives and speakers, and over 1,000 leading companies exhibiting, including energy ministers from 15 countries and leaders of 5 international organizations. The energy minister stated that the benefits were not limited to natural gas and electricity, but that having many sellers and partners in the same place helped increase options for negotiating long-term energy contracts, reduce risks from energy procurement in the volatile spot market, and build long-term confidence in Thailand. During the event, he chaired roundtable discussions with executives of key energy organizations, including the International Energy Forum and the International Energy Agency, as well as ministers and executives from the United States, Russia, Singapore, neighboring countries, and Africa. Gastech is considered one of the world's leading energy industry events, rotating between the United States, Europe, and Asia, with Thailand having last hosted it in 2008 before it returned to Bangkok this year.

Baker Hughes has received a large order for gas compression and liquefaction systems tied to Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG facility and the Cloud Connector Pipeline project. The award covers one of the largest single deployments of LNG feed gas compression equipment for transportation use in the United States. The deal expands Baker Hughes' role across the natural gas value chain and deepens its relationship with Venture Global for future LNG capacity. Baker Hughes, a US based energy services provider with a market cap of $55.9b, said the order feeds its Industrial & Energy Technology backlog, where it competes with peers including Siemens Energy and GE Vernova. Analysts flag heavy reliance on LNG and gas build out, despite potential policy shifts, as a key risk in the investment thesis.

The partners behind LNG Canada, the liquefied natural gas production venture in Canada led by British oil major Shell, may reach a final investment decision on a second-phase expansion as early as next month, according to three people familiar with the matter. The expansion plan would add 14 million tonnes per year of export capacity at the facility in Kitimat, British Columbia, doubling the project's total export capacity to 28 million tonnes per year. In a statement to Reuters, Shell said it is working with its joint venture partners to examine a path toward a possible Phase 2 expansion, and that a final investment decision is contingent on each joint venture participant independently meeting commercial, financial, regulatory and governance requirements, with the aim of making an investment decision by the end of the year. Behind this is the growing emphasis among LNG buyers, particularly customers in Asia, on securing stable supply, as the industry is buffeted by conflict in the Middle East, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, and rising uncertainty over energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. LNG Canada is the country's first large-scale LNG export terminal, led by Shell with backing from Malaysia's state oil company Petronas, China National Petroleum Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation and Korea Gas Corporation, and ranks among Canada's largest private investments. The export terminal is located on Canada's Pacific coast, giving it a locational advantage over U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals that transit the Panama Canal, with shorter shipping routes to major Asian markets.

Yuanta Securities raised its Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2026-2027 to 90 dollars per barrel from 85 dollars per barrel, and to 75 dollars per barrel from 70 dollars per barrel, respectively, after Middle East tensions dragged on longer than previously expected, with the situation having been expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026. Instead, tensions re-escalated from early September after the United States and Iran resumed attacks on each other following a ceasefire that had held since July, and the conflict also spread to Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, which attacked refineries and the East-West Pipeline that carries roughly 4-5 million barrels per day, or 4-5% of global supply. Saudi Arabia said it could restore partial operation of about 50% within the next few days, but a full return to capacity may take around six weeks. The research team raised its 2026-2027 net profit forecasts for PTTEP by 5-12% to 77 billion baht and 72 billion baht, respectively. It maintained its investment weighting for the energy sector at "equal to market" and sees upstream energy stocks PTT, PTTEP and BANPU as the main choices for investment at this time, with BANPU as the top pick with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 19.00 baht, driven by its gas business in the United States, which is supported by the data center industry, and its coal business, which benefits from demand substituting for LNG in a region strained by war. Meanwhile, risk-averse investors can invest in PTT with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 45.00 baht, based on its integrated business with lower volatility and consistently high dividend payouts.

PTT Group co-hosted the global energy conference and exhibition Gastech 2026, hosted in Thailand, with PTT Group executives taking the stage to present their vision covering natural gas and LNG, energy security, and sustainability. Dr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, said in a panel discussion titled "LNG in the age of electrification" that the energy transition must balance energy security, affordable prices for the public, and sustainability, with natural gas and LNG regarded as destination fuels that will play a role in the long-term energy system, serving demand from the industrial sector, rising electricity use, as well as AI and data centers. Mr. Bandit Thammaprasitjit, Chief Operating Officer of the Upstream Petroleum and Gas Business Group at PTT, said that PTT aims to develop natural gas and LNG infrastructure from LNG receiving, storage, and regasification to gas pipeline systems and connections with downstream markets, while building a diversified and flexible LNG portfolio and seeking to extend Thailand's potential to become the region's physical LNG delivery hub. Meanwhile, Mr. Jaturong Worawitsurawatthana, Senior Executive Vice President of the International Trading Business Unit at PTT, noted that energy security does not depend solely on the volume of LNG supply, but also on buyers' ability to access LNG at appropriate price levels, and that long-term contracts should be more flexible in terms of volume, delivery schedules, destinations, and price structures. Mr. Rattakorn Kampanatsanyakorn, Senior Executive Vice President of Corporate Sustainability at PTT, disclosed that PTT is developing I-SPARK in the Map Ta Phut area of Rayong Province, which is expected to attract more than 5 billion US dollars in investment, generate more than 3 billion US dollars in economic value, create more than 13,000 new jobs, and help reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 9 million tons per year by 2035, supporting the goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

A securities analysis recommends "buying" GULF shares, expecting operating results in the second half of 2026 to continue growing, and maintains guidance for 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth of around 12-15%. This is supported by roughly 700 MW of new capacity in the second half, including 623 MW of renewable power plants expected to generate additional profit of about 600 million baht per year, and the 10 MW Chiang Mai community waste-to-energy plant expected to generate profit of about 120 million baht per year. Meanwhile, the LNG Import and Optimization business is expected to generate profit of about 1.5 billion baht this year. On the US side, the Jackson power plant has already benefited from a Capacity Payment increase from 270 to 329 dollars per MW-day, driven by demand from data centers in the PJM market. As for GSA01, with a capacity of 25 MW, customers have used full capacity since June, allowing full profit recognition in the second half of 2026. The first roughly 200 MW of data centers that have already been committed are expected to be fully operational in 2027, before capacity expands to approximately 1,000 MW by late 2028. The company continues to expand its Digital Infrastructure to be fully integrated, with plans for equity investment of approximately 130-140 billion baht over five years, allocating about 10% to GULF Edge, which could rise to 15% depending on data center growth. On sentiment, the view is that the price decline over the Singtel share overhang issue is nearing resolution, after Singtel sold 416 million GULF shares, or 2.8% of total shares, in June 2026, reducing its stake from 7.73% to 4.95%, with a lock-up condition barring further sales of the remaining shares for 90 days, which will expire around September 21-22. On technical factors, the stock tested and held its psychological support at 60.00 and reversed upward with a positive signal candlestick, with resistance at 61.25 and 63-63.25. For those holding the stock, the recommendation is to hold or buy more; for those without the stock, the recommendation is a short-term buy, focusing on holding support at 60/59 and it should not fall below that.

Shell warned that the global energy market is running through its remaining cushions after losing roughly 36 million metric tons of LNG and 1.6 billion barrels of crude oil and condensates since the Middle East conflict began. The company's chief economist said weaker Chinese demand, inventory drawdowns, flexible shipping, spare pipeline capacity and rising production from the Americas helped soften the first wave of disruption, but that protection is thinning. Even if key energy routes reopen, damaged infrastructure and supply-chain bottlenecks could keep the market tight well into 2027, while Europe heads toward winter with unusually low gas inventories. Shell's LNG portfolio, shipping reach and global trading network could gain strategic value in that environment, though high prices cut both ways, as Asian buyers have already shifted toward coal, nuclear power and domestic gas. Shell's U.S. shares were nearly flat at $95.51, a 15.21% premium to a GF Value estimate of $82.90.

Equinor ASA plans to grow its liquefied natural gas supply portfolio to 10-15 million metric tons per year by the early 2030s, up from an expected level of around 7 million tpy in 2030 once U.S. supplies ramp up. The Norwegian integrated energy company is in talks with counterparties in India and parts of Southeast Asia seeking new sources of supply, focusing on state-owned energy companies and fertilizer producers, and is expected to announce a second LNG supply deal with an Asian buyer this week. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of total global energy flows, have affected LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE, pushing Asian buyers toward alternative sources and lifting European benchmark natural gas prices well above year-ago levels. Equinor loaded its first U.S. LNG cargo in August 2026 from the Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana, operated by Cheniere Energy, and is evaluating additional supply from the U.S. East Coast, Canada's West Coast, South America and Africa as it builds a diversified portfolio and diversifies pricing exposure. Equinor currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Cummins executives said North American truck demand is recovering and data-center power demand remains exceptionally strong, with orders for its QSK95 generator now stretching into the second half of 2028. Speaking at Morgan Stanley's Laguna Conference, James Hopkins, Cummins' vice president of financial planning, capital management and investor relations, said the truck market has improved over the last six months on stronger fleet profitability and greater clarity around 2027 emissions rules, and that the higher 2027 cost structure supports continued demand into the second half of 2026. Hopkins said the Environmental Protection Agency's semi-final rule gives the industry flexibility in 2027, letting manufacturers sell historical powertrains with a non-conforming penalty or offer new powertrains meeting the 35 mg/bhp-hr NOx requirement, though end-user costs are expected to rise either way. Nick Arens, Cummins' executive director of investor relations, said supply constraints on the larger engine are pushing customers to smaller 78-liter, 60-liter and 50-liter options, and he reaffirmed confidence in the company's target of more than $9 billion of data-center-related exposure by 2030, largely supported by diesel standby demand. Cummins expects 55 gigawatts of high-horsepower engine capacity by 2030, plans limited prototype production of its 130-liter natural-gas prime-power product in the second half of 2028 ahead of a ramp in 2029 and 2030, and said a battery energy storage system application for data centers should contribute revenue in the low hundreds of millions of dollars over the next several years while diluting overall margins.

Gastech 2026 officially closed in Bangkok on 14-17 September 2026 at the Bangkok International Trade and Exhibition Centre, drawing a record 59,468 participants from more than 150 countries. During the event, memoranda of understanding, purchase agreements and investments were announced with a combined value of around 40 billion US dollars, spanning energy supply, power generation and infrastructure development. More than 20 energy ministers from around the world and senior executives from leading energy companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, PTT, EGAT, GULF, Eni, PETRONAS and TotalEnergies took part. Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said energy suppliers are energised by the new opportunities emerging, while Christopher Hudson, president of dmg events, said hosting the event in Bangkok underscored the power of collaboration in turning commitment into tangible results. Gastech 2027 is scheduled to take place on 14-17 September 2027 in Houston, United States.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has raised its 2027 price target for Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, to 66.50 baht from 60.00 baht, while maintaining a buy rating and selecting GPSC as its top pick in the power plant sector for the fourth quarter of 2026, compared with the closing price of 48.25 baht on September 15, 2026, implying upside of about 37.8%. The brokerage views the company as a beneficiary of the draft of the country's new national power development plan, whose first 11 years, from 2027 to 2037, include plans to add roughly 50.6 gigawatts of new generating capacity. GPSC aims to capture about 5.2 gigawatts of that new capacity, or roughly 10% of the total, split between about 2.4 gigawatts of gas-fired plants and 2.7 gigawatts of renewable energy, comprising 2.2 gigawatts of solar and 0.5 gigawatts of wind. Meanwhile, existing gas-fired plants such as the 713-megawatt Glow IPP, in which GPSC holds 95%, and the 1,400-megawatt RPCL, in which it holds 24%, have a chance to extend contracts that expire in 2028 and 2033 respectively. In addition, selling electricity to data center operators is another option that could generate higher returns. On the financial front, as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, GPSC had a net debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.72 times, against a financial covenant of 2.5 times. Yuanta also raised its 2027 normalized profit forecast by 2% to 6.865 billion baht, or an 11% increase from the previous year, on full-year revenue recognition from the GHECO-One power plant, and lifted its gross margin assumption to 14.9%, even as it raised its natural gas price assumption to 360 baht per million BTU.

The Energy Policy and Planning Office, or EPPO, reported that primary commercial energy consumption in the first six months of 2026 was approximately 2,062 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 0.9% from the same period a year earlier, in line with Thai economic growth of 2.4%. EPPO Director Wattanapong Kurovat said electricity use rose 6.0%, with total electricity consumption of 109,846 gigawatt-hours, and natural gas use increased 8.5% to 4,937 million cubic feet per day. Refined oil consumption fell 0.8% to 142.7 million liters per day, partly a result of higher prices amid uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. Coal and lignite use dropped 16.5% to 5,899 thousand tons of oil equivalent, with lignite down 52.5% because the Mae Moh power plant halted some of its generating units, while carbon dioxide emissions from energy use fell 0.4% to 121.0 million tons of CO2. In the land transport sector, electricity use at charging stations rose 87.1%, consistent with cumulative registrations of BEV electric vehicles as of June 2026 reaching 491,496 units, up 66% from 296,813 units in June 2025. EPPO expects energy demand for all of 2026 to rise 1.4%, but says the Middle East conflict, uncertainty over US trade measures, and weather factors still need to be monitored. Dubai crude oil stood at 126.70 US dollars per barrel on September 14, 2026, and the average Asian LNG price over the first eight months of the year was 16.70 US dollars per million BTU, higher than the 2025 average of 12.16 US dollars per million BTU.

US President Donald Trump told reporters on the evening of Wednesday, September 16, that he hopes the war with Iran, now dragging into its seventh month, is nearing an end, saying Iran wants a deal and that he had been contacted directly by Iran, though he did not disclose further details. The remarks came amid escalating tensions after the Saudi Arabian air force launched strikes in Yemen and Houthi rebels retaliated by firing missiles and sending drones to attack various Saudi cities, including the Red Sea oil port of Yanbu and the Khamis Mushait air base in the south, according to a statement by Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Houthi military. The war erupted on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, before Tehran fired back at Israel and US bases in the Persian Gulf countries. The attack on Saudi Arabia that damaged the East-West oil pipeline has prompted oil traders to warn that if the pipeline is forced to halt shipments for an extended period, as much as 4% of global oil supply could be lost. Saudi authorities have not yet specified when the pipeline will be able to resume operation. The spread of the war into Yemen is also compounding the global energy shortage, after the earlier conflict cut off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which once carried one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas. As a result, Brent crude traded at around 108 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, near its highest level since May, while US retail diesel prices surged to a record high of more than 6.30 dollars a gallon, which is becoming major political pressure on the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections in November. Axios reported, citing sources, that President Trump is scheduled to meet with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, which comprises Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next Tuesday, September 22, to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran. The conflict between the Saudi-led alliance and the Houthis, which has been underway since 2015 and had once calmed under a ceasefire agreement, flared up violently again after the Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia last July.

The Tisco Economic and Strategic Analysis Center assesses that the prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is pushing the global oil market into a New Normal. Oil supply from the Middle East that disappeared in the early phase of the war, more than 10 to 12 million barrels per day, has partially recovered, leaving a shortfall of roughly 5 million barrels per day. This follows adjustments by Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia's use of the West-East pipeline, exports via pipeline to Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, ship-to-ship oil transfers, and oil shipments along the Omani coast with transponders switched off, or dark traffic. Although the release of oil from the U.S. strategic reserve and a significant reduction in China's oil imports have allowed most countries to secure oil close to pre-war levels, Tisco views this balance as highly fragile, because the mechanisms propping up the market are all stopgap fixes rather than a structural solution. Several financial institutions and research firms have gradually revised their year-end oil price forecasts from around 75 dollars per barrel to a range of 90 to 95 dollars per barrel, while Tisco estimates a fair short-term crude oil price of 100 to 110 dollars per barrel and maintains an overweight stance on oil-related alternative assets as well as energy sector stocks. It expects the oil market to continue facing high volatility over the next one to two months.

BANPU informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that BKV Corporation, a subsidiary 72.6% held by BANPU and listed on the New York Stock Exchange, completed its acquisition of new assets related to upstream, midstream, and carbon capture and storage businesses in the Barnett natural gas field on September 15, 2026, after all conditions precedent to closing were fully satisfied. The transaction was funded from BKV's cash and borrowings under a revolving credit facility. The value of the transaction was not disclosed under the terms of the asset purchase agreement. The acquired assets comprise producing gas operations of approximately 65 million cubic feet equivalent per day, proved and producing reserves of approximately 0.35 trillion cubic feet equivalent, a CCS project capable of capturing approximately 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, and midstream infrastructure such as a gas processing plant with a capacity of 180 million cubic feet equivalent per day and a gas pipeline of approximately 340 miles. Dao Securities said it holds a positive view on the asset purchase plan, which extends the US Closed-Loop Gas strategy to diversify risk away from the coal business, but that there is not yet enough information to assess the worthiness of this investment. It maintained its 2026E net profit forecast at 2.4 billion baht, compared with -2.0 billion baht in 2025, and kept its hold rating with a 2026E target price of 14.80 baht, based on a target PBV of 0.53x.

The Bank of England is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at today's meeting, while sharply rising energy prices are adding pressure that it may have to follow the US Federal Reserve, which raised rates yesterday. UK natural gas futures and Brent crude prices have jumped nearly 20% this month, bad news for Britain, which relies heavily on energy imports. Most economists surveyed by Reuters last week expect the BoE to hold rates until the end of this year, with only about three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee expected to vote for a hike at this meeting, while financial markets yesterday priced in an 80% chance that the BoE will raise rates by 0.25% in November, which would be the first of about four increases investors expect over the next 12 months. But only about one in eight of the respondents to the Reuters poll expect the BoE to raise rates in November.

Gastech 2026 announced partnerships and investment plans during its first three days worth a combined $40 billion, covering agreements ranging from memoranda of understanding to purchase contracts and investment plans across the energy value chain. China Gas Holdings and Venture Global LNG agreed to buy 0.5 million tonnes per year of LNG from the United States over 20 years, starting in 2030. Samsung Heavy Industries closed a deal to build LNG carriers and crude oil tankers worth $1.2 billion, while the state of Sarawak concluded talks with Indorama Ventures and partners from Japan on downstream natural gas and petrochemical investment worth about $1 billion in Bintulu. In addition, PETRONAS, PTTEP JDA and the Thailand-Malaysia Joint Authority signed a 35-year production sharing contract and a natural gas sales agreement in the Thailand-Malaysia Joint Development Area. GE Vernova and B.Grimm Power signed an agreement to supply gas turbine technology and long-term services in Thailand and Malaysia. Eni signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of Senegal to assess the oil potential of five offshore exploration blocks, and Horacio Marín, chairman and chief executive of YPF, announced plans to sign two to three LNG sales contracts for the Argentina LNG export project. Supawan Teerarat, director of the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau, or TCEB, said the event drew more than 50,000 participants from over 150 countries and is expected to generate about 14.62 billion baht in economic value.