Bualuang Securities Expects 24.6 Billion Baht Inflows into Thailand Over 3 Months, Highlights KCE, PTT, PTTGC

MacroAnalystDigital Finance
โดย HoonSmart·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Bualuang Securities has issued an analysis of interest rate trends across four major central banks, and estimates that foreign capital will flow into the Thai stock market to the tune of about 24.6 billion baht over the next three months. It notes that all six key factors currently used to gauge fund flow signals are above their averages, and four of the six are more than 0.5 standard deviations above, supported by an upcycle in global technology and manufacturing. This is reflected in South Korea's exports, which stand at +2.00 standard deviations after export figures for May to July 2026 grew 52.9%, 70.4% and 63.0% year on year respectively. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing index rose from 52.6 in January to 55.6 in July. On earnings revisions, SET profit estimates over the past three months have swung from -7.3% at the start of the year to +12.7% now, or +1.43 standard deviations, consistent with foreign investors' net buying of Thai stocks of about 58 billion baht year to date and 38 billion baht over the past three months. Quantitative estimates using Ridge Regression point to inflows of 27.6 billion baht, while a Rank Model gives 21.5 billion baht, putting the average base case at about 24.6 billion baht over the next three months. In a soft patch scenario where momentum slows, the models still show foreign capital remaining positive at about 10.3 billion baht. For investment strategy, Bualuang Securities recommends sector rotation trading, picking KCE on expectations that PCB deliveries in the third quarter of 2026 will rise quarter on quarter, supporting average selling prices up about 9% to 10% from July 1, with PCB revenue potentially rising 17% to 19% quarter on quarter. It also picks PTT and PTTGC to benefit from commodity prices and product spreads that remain at high levels. Stocks expected to underperform the market include banking, telecommunications, power plants, retail, finance, construction and industrial estates.

Impact on stocks 3

Semiconductors▲ · 1 stocks
Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 1 stocks
PTT Public Company Limited
PTT
▲ PositivePricingrelevance

Bualuang picks PTT to benefit from commodity prices and product spreads that remain favorable.

Materials▲ · 1 stocks
© 2026 MarketDXNews