PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited

The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East has led to an increase in the average Dubai crude oil price last week by 4.42 US dollars per barrel, or 5%, to 93.03 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, the Singapore refining margin fell by 2.84 US dollars per barrel to 17.31 US dollars per barrel, due to increased regional supply and high US oil inventories. Analysts believe that the strong earnings of refinery groups have already been reflected in their stock prices and recommend switching investments to the petrochemical sector, especially IVL and PTTGC, whose share prices have risen more slowly. Most petrochemical spreads have improved, such as the Ethylene-Naphtha Spread, which increased by 93 US dollars to 242 US dollars per ton. Additionally, the blockade of shipping routes in the Red Sea could support short-term freight rates, with the World Container Index rising 4% to 4,526 points, a positive factor for RCL shares. Meanwhile, the BDI index fell 5% to 2,820 points, but Supramax vessels, which are related to PSL and TTA, increased 2% to 1,634 points. The NEX coal price index also rose 3% to 131.81 US dollars per ton, driven by strong demand in Asia-Pacific.

PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, announced an interim dividend for the first six months of 2026 at 0.60 baht per share, totaling approximately 2.705 billion baht. Shareholders must hold shares before the XD date on September 7, 2026, and the record date for shareholders entitled to receive the dividend is September 8, 2026. The dividend payment date is set for September 22, 2026. Yuanta Securities noted that normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to slow from the previous quarter due to a high base and lower petrochemical spreads, but still grow from a year earlier thanks to business restructuring and improved operating efficiency. It maintained its 2026 net profit estimate at 13 billion baht, a target price of 45.00 baht, and a buy recommendation. Krungsri Securities raised its 2026 and 2027 normal profit estimates by 117 percent to 29.53 billion baht and by 64 percent to 17.225 billion baht, respectively, and raised its 2027 target price to 50.0 baht, maintaining a buy recommendation and naming it one of its top picks.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that PTT has maintained energy security even as geopolitical conflicts increasingly disrupt energy transport, supported by the capability of its trading business to access supply sources worldwide. The company can still procure crude oil and feedstock for downstream operations to continue production, with refinery utilization in its group at 103% in the first half of 2026, compared with a normal level of 104% in the first half of 2025, versus the region where run rates have been cut by 8 to 17 percent, led by Chinese refineries. On the petrochemical side, olefins utilization in the first half of 2026 rose to 86%, compared with 80% in the first half of 2025, allowing the company to benefit from higher margins amid persistently tight supply. PTT maintains its target to keep expanding its trading business over the long term, aiming to diversify crude oil procurement sources to strengthen energy security and to expand trading into more fuel types. It keeps its target to increase LNG trading volume by about three times to 10 million tonnes per annum by 2030, versus 1.75 million tonnes per annum in the first half of 2026 and a 2026 target of 3.7 million tonnes per annum. The company is generating stronger cash flow, supported by nearly all businesses, and is considering increasing shareholder returns. First-half 2026 EBITDA and net profit rose 55% and 75% year on year respectively, supported by tight energy supply from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This drove higher margins in the exploration and production business along with crude oil prices, supported the gas business through lower costs from gas price restructuring and higher reference selling prices, and helped the refinery and petrochemical businesses through recovering refining margins and product spreads. These factors are expected to continue supporting year-on-year growth in the second half of 2026, leading to an improving cash flow trend. Net debt to EBITDA is likely to keep declining from 1.26 times in the first half of 2026, compared with 1.75 times in 2025, leaving excess liquidity to pay dividends to shareholders at no less than the industry average. PTT maintains its asset monetization plan and its search for strategic partners to reduce financial costs and strengthen long-term competitiveness. It keeps its target to carry out asset monetization of about 100 billion baht during 2025 to 2027, with 18 billion baht already completed from 2025 through the first half of 2026, to use liquidity to reduce debt and improve the ability to withstand long-term business volatility. It also maintains its plan to seek strategic partners or a Genesis transaction to enhance competitiveness in feedstock procurement and long-term funding sources, with progress now expected to be delayed into 2027 because the war in the Middle East and government intervention have affected negotiations. Krungsri Securities views this as slightly positive for PTT, as management is considering higher shareholder returns based on excess liquidity. This makes the forecast 2026 dividend of about 2.3 baht per share, or a yield of 5.6%, which is close to the 2025 level that included a special dividend, more likely and possibly subject to upside, compared with expected dividend yields of no less than 6 to 7 percent for PTTEP and TOP. The delay in concluding a strategic partner or Genesis transaction during the war is not worse than expected, and the broker maintains its view that it does not reduce the competitiveness of PTT and its subsidiaries, while stronger current business conditions increase bargaining power in negotiations. Krungsri Securities maintains its view that normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 will grow year on year, still supported by nearly all businesses from upstream to downstream. Gas price restructuring has reduced feed costs for gas separation plants by 17% year on year, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised reference selling prices. Subsidiary businesses are supported by persistently tight supply, boosting margins at PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, and IRPC. The broker maintains a Buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 44.5 baht. It keeps its view that the business is in a recovery phase, with the gas business turning around from gas restructuring and the refinery and petrochemical businesses benefiting from tighter supply as less new capacity comes online and global production restructuring takes place. This is keeping refining margins above the ten-year average and lifting petrochemical spreads back to long-term profitable levels, supporting normalized profit growth at a compound annual growth rate of 18% during 2026 to 2028.

Newspapers report that PTT has unveiled a five-year investment plan worth 1 trillion baht, pushing into petroleum exploration and production and infrastructure businesses, with PTTEP as the spearhead for investment, supporting the government's policy to drive Thai GDP growth of 3 percent. PTT will also co-host Gastech 2026 from September 14 to 17, moving ahead to seek partners to strengthen PTTGC, TOP, and IRPC, expanding LNG imports to 15 million tonnes in 2035 and targeting an increase in the share of overseas revenue to 50 percent. Meanwhile, BGRIM is pursuing energy megatrends, developing projects to support PDP 2026 and highlighting data center business as a star after signing power purchase agreements for 100 megawatts, with new customers set to add another 150 megawatts. It is also studying construction of new power plants to support data centers and preparing to bid for Quick Big Win projects to drive community solar of 300 to 500 megawatts. SGC is adjusting its loan portfolio, pushing Lock Phone with a yield of 25 percent and targeting an increase in its share to 65 percent of the portfolio. It is set to sell C4C for no more than 1.3 billion baht and preparing cash to support the high season in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. SINGER-SGC is moving to clear accumulated losses, hoping to unlock dividend payments after SGC has posted profits for eight consecutive quarters. SPCG has been taken over by the Phokachai Pattana group teaming up with Jaruthavee in a deal worth more than 5.527 billion baht, opening a full-scale offensive in green energy business in response to the new PDP 2026 plan and the unlocking of direct power purchase agreements. SPCG is found to hold hidden land assets in the Eastern Economic Corridor of more than 3,000 rai, and is moving ahead to sell electricity directly to customers of the Bangkok Free Trade Zone project of the MK group in Bang Pakong Industrial Estate. ERW is confident that the third quarter of 2026 will be strong, with total revenue growing 7 percent after July average revenue per room rose 5 percent, supported by a bright tourism outlook in the second half, driving full-year revenue growth of 6 percent to 8.4 billion baht. It is advancing the JUMP+ plan toward a target of 10 billion baht in 2028. IND believes the second half of 2026 can maintain good growth momentum after first-half results showed net profit of 13.33 million baht and service revenue of 413.31 million baht. SO continues toward a double-digit growth target, with cumulative revenue plus backlog awaiting recognition at 2.894 billion baht, or 93.2 percent of the full-year revenue target of 3.1 billion baht. THAI is adjusting strategy to cope with surging oil prices, increasing hedging to 60 percent for two years ahead as the Middle East situation looks set to drag on. It plans no reduction in available seat kilometers in the second half and will resume flights on two routes, Xiamen and Da Nang, while increasing frequency on three European routes: Paris, Munich, and Zurich. It is confident of maintaining operating profitability this year, while the aircraft procurement plan continues, with a fleet of 102 aircraft by the end of this year before rising to 128 in 2028. PRM is paying a special dividend of 0.20 baht per share from retained earnings, with the ex-dividend date set for August 27, after second-quarter 2026 results showed net profit of 580.5 million baht, up 20.2 percent, and total service revenue of 2.3171 billion baht, up 4.5 percent. INET is confident of continued growth, developing INET-IDC4 to reflect rising domestic demand for cloud infrastructure and strengthening Thai organizations toward data sovereignty. It is currently developing the EduPass system with the Ministry of Education, expected to launch within six months. SAMART is confident of a strong second-half recovery, benefiting from SAV's busy flights, while the direct coding business has passed its lowest point. It is preparing to bid for new projects worth nearly 10 billion baht, expecting the government to gradually approve and open bidding from October onward, supporting total backlog to exceed 20 billion baht by the end of this year. BAM is accelerating in the second half, generating revenue from non-performing loans, non-performing assets, and joint venture asset management companies toward set targets. It reported second-quarter 2026 collections of 3.513 billion baht, up 16 percent, with profit of more than 234 million baht, up 8 percent, while helping more customers restructure debt through the New Start with BAM program. BCH reported strong third-quarter 2026 operating results as the high season began showing good signs from late May through June, believing foreign customers will continue to recover and drive year-end results higher. It revealed it is in talks on more than 10 merger and acquisition deals and preparing to meet with the Social Security board to adjust capitation rates for all items, expected to be completed by October 2026. TFG is benefiting from high farm-gate pig prices of 72 to 74 baht per kilogram, expected to hold until September, while chicken prices have also edged up. Export demand for chicken in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Japan remains strong. It has locked in soybean and soybean meal prices until the end of 2026 to manage raw material costs, and is expanding retail stores to 875 branches by the end of this year before surpassing 1,075 branches by the end of next year. JR is set to benefit from the new PDP round, creating opportunities for additional system installation work. It signaled that the second half of 2026 will outperform the first half, supported by recognition of additional projects, and is preparing to bid for new electrical projects worth another 100 million baht, boosting backlog from 5 billion baht. It is shifting more toward quick wins to fill its portfolio and generate steady revenue. KUMWEL is building Kumwel Clinic with a target of covering 10 provinces by the end of the year, set to book revenue from the third quarter, while also eyeing BOI Plus incentives worth 100 million baht. The data center megatrend is driving demand for lightning protection and grounding systems, opening opportunities for many new projects. It is confident that 2026 revenue will grow strongly by 50 percent. ORI has laid out a three-year JUMP+ plan to accelerate performance to 1.43 billion baht in 2028, highlighting a build-operate-exit-reinvest model to develop hotels and warehouses for added value before selling into REITs to recycle capital for new investments. In the second half, it is set to book revenue from asset and land sales of another 1.5 to 1.8 billion baht. TOA is adjusting strategy to penetrate the economy paint segment, targeting rental property customers, while expanding in construction and repair chemicals to capture home renovation demand. It is proceeding with planned investment of about 600 million baht, expected to accelerate in late third quarter of 2026, focusing on new production development and targeting sales growth of 5 percent. PRINC has set a 2026 target of revenue growth exceeding 10 percent from the previous year, reaping full-year benefits from new hospital investments and a growing customer base. It said third-quarter 2026 performance will be better than the second quarter, supported by the high season and rising service usage, plus benefits from the Happitat project opening, which will continue to boost Prince Suvarnabhumi Hospital. It is upgrading complex disease services and expanding its foreign customer base to support margins. READY is expanding its Plus Customer base among medium-sized businesses with annual revenue of 30 to 300 million baht, aiming to build recurring revenue beyond its existing share of more than 90 percent. It is accelerating the use of AI to enhance products and internal systems, and launching Ready Agent-R Service, targeting revenue growth of 7 percent this year. PCE signaled a bright second half of 2026, benefiting from domestic demand for B100 biodiesel. It is expanding production capacity at its palm oil refinery for edible oil, expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026 to support food industry growth. It is confident of strong growth in value-added products and manages integrated infrastructure to control costs efficiently across the system, supporting sustainable growth. ORN revealed a bright business outlook for the third quarter of 2026, with a solid backlog of 4.26 billion baht and continuous transfers of low-rise and high-rise projects. It is preparing to launch The Next Jed Yod 4 condominium on August 22, along with sales campaigns, and plans to expand community malls to Phuket, with opening targeted for early 2027.

Morgan Stanley has raised its target prices on six Thai energy and refinery stocks: PTT to 44.90 baht from 39.40 baht, TOP to 87 baht from 70 baht, PTTGC to 59 baht from 43 baht, OR to 14.60 baht from 14.30 baht, BCP to 65.70 baht from 51 baht, and SPRC to 19.70 baht from 12.90 baht. The moves reflect a positive view on the outlook for Thailand's energy and refinery sector, especially for SPRC, PTTGC, TOP and BCP, which received significant target-price increases. Sorachai Pittayapruek, director of analysis at Krungsri Securities, assesses that the petrochemical industry is entering the early stage of a new recovery cycle after facing oversupply pressure since 2023. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a catalyst for faster market rebalancing, because some plants that already had plans to reduce or halt production can use the situation as a reason to stop operations and cut product deliveries, removing a large amount of supply from the market during the crisis. However, once the Hormuz closure situation eases, product spreads may correct in the short term in the third quarter of 2026, but they are unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2025, because not all of the old plant capacity that has been gradually shut down can come back to the market. Sorachai estimates that the petrochemical industry has a chance to reach balance sooner than previously expected. He had earlier estimated that the market could reach equilibrium in 2029, assuming plastic resin demand grows by an average of 1 to 2 percent per year and no severe economic recession hits. Once excess supply declines to the point of balance, producers' pricing power will increase, opening the opportunity for product spreads to sustainably stand above 500 US dollars per tonne. His recommended standout stocks are PTTGC and SCC in the petrochemical group, with BCP as the top pick in the refinery group, along with a buy recommendation on IVL and hold recommendations on SPRC and TOP.

Yuanta Securities Thailand maintains a buy recommendation on PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, and keeps its fair value at 45 baht after second-quarter 2026 results came in stronger than expected. Net profit was 12.208 billion baht, up 277.7% from the previous quarter and a turnaround from a loss in the same period last year, marking the highest quarterly profit in 20 quarters and about 30% above the average forecast by Yuanta Securities and Bloomberg Consensus. The standout profit came from specialty petrochemicals, intermediate petrochemicals, and higher-than-expected profit sharing. Excluding extraordinary items, core profit was 16.606 billion baht, up 164% from the previous quarter and a turnaround from a loss a year earlier, supported by a recovery in the petrochemical business, especially olefins, which benefited from tight supply and higher sales volumes after the maintenance shutdown period. Yuanta Securities expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to slow from the previous quarter due to a high base and lower petrochemical spreads, but still grow from the same period last year, helped by business restructuring and operational efficiency improvements that reduce costs, higher production rates after the major maintenance shutdown, and increased ethane feedstock volumes. Yuanta Securities maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 13.081 billion baht and keeps its fair value at 45 baht, while viewing PTTGC as more resilient than peers under current oil market conditions because its gas-based production structure helps margins hold up better than naphtha-based producers. In the short term, Yuanta Securities expects PTTGC shares to react positively to the stronger-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results, and investors can look forward to a high interim dividend. It initially expects a dividend per share for the first half of 2026 of 1.00 baht, implying a dividend yield of 2.7%, and sees PTTGC as one of the good options for hedging against war-related situations.

PTTGC shares jumped sharply to close the morning session at 42.75 baht, up 3.75 baht or 9.62%, with turnover exceeding 3.3 billion baht, after Morgan Stanley raised its target price by 37.21% to 59.00 baht from 43.00 baht, supporting buying from institutions and foreign investors. Second-quarter 2026 net profit came in at 12.208 billion baht, up 277.7% from the previous quarter and a turnaround from a loss compared with a year earlier, beating consensus forecasts by as much as 30%, driven by a recovery in the olefins business and a cost-advantaged gas-based production structure. The company also expects an interim dividend for the first half of 2026 of about 1.00 baht per share. In addition, joint venture WHA-GC approved the sale of assets into the WHART trust worth more than 2.508 billion baht, helping boost liquidity and strengthen its financial structure.

PTT Global Chemical, or PTTGC, and WHA Corporation, or WHA, are preparing to sell assets of their joint venture WHA GC Logistics, or WGCL, in which both parties hold a 50-50 percent stake, to WHA Premium Growth Real Estate and Leasehold Trust, or WHART, for a total of 2.51 billion baht. The assets comprise the WGCL International Distribution Center project. The sale is expected to be completed by October 2026.

Bualuang Securities said the petrochemical sector reported standout second-quarter 2026 results, led by PTTGC and IVL, supported by sharply higher product prices and spreads. The two companies under its coverage reported combined net profit of about 18 billion baht, swinging from a net loss in the second quarter of 2025 and growing more than 44 times from the previous quarter. Combined core profit came in at 21.5 billion baht, surging 486 percent from the prior quarter. The sharp recovery was driven mainly by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which tightened supply and significantly boosted petrochemical revenue and product spreads. Both companies' financial positions are expected to keep reducing debt burdens, with IVL's net debt-to-equity ratio at 1.1 times while PTTGC's is low at just 0.3 times. In the second quarter of 2026, IVL generated free cash flow of 24 billion baht, while PTTGC generated 50.1 billion baht. For the third quarter of 2026, petrochemical prices and spreads are expected to soften slightly from the previous quarter as supply begins returning to the market, but price levels should remain high compared with the same period last year, so the group's core profit is expected to keep recovering and growing on a year-on-year basis. Bualuang Securities maintains an overweight rating on the sector and names PTTGC as its top pick because of stronger earnings growth prospects, cheaper valuation and a higher dividend yield. It recommends buying PTTGC with a target price of 43 baht and buying IVL with a target price of 30 baht.

Bualuang Securities said net profit of stocks under its coverage in the second quarter of 2026 rose 13% from a year earlier and 12% from the previous quarter, coming in 10% above market expectations and 11% above the company's estimates. Revenue was only 2% above market expectations, reflecting support from higher energy prices and petrochemical spreads, revenue and ARPU in the communications sector, electronics demand, and cost management in the retail sector. Pressure still came from lower meat prices, weak Cambodian and self-pay patients, and higher energy costs in the transport sector. Sectors with standout core profit growth included energy and petrochemicals, electronics, communications, retail, and hotels. Sectors with the main profit declines remained agriculture and food, hospitals, and transport. Although the overall results beat expectations, market expectations are starting to return to a more balanced level, with the proportion of stocks beating profit estimates at 48%, compared with 59% in the previous quarter, but still above the five-year average of 37%. The beat-to-miss ratio was 3.4 times, down from 6.8 times in the previous quarter, but still above the five-year average of 1.1 times. Stocks with profits notably above market expectations included AOT, SCC, PTTGC, and PTT, while DELTA came in below expectations. On the revenue side, only the petrochemical sector clearly beat expectations, while WHA and BAM came in below. The company assesses a mid-2027 SET target of 1,650 points in the base case and 1,710 points in the best case. But with the beat-to-miss ratio starting to decline, it recommends focusing on selective plays in stocks whose earnings are likely to continue recovering in the second half of 2026. These include CBG, whose earnings are expected to have passed their trough in the second quarter of 2026 before returning to year-on-year growth from the third quarter; BH, supported by recovering Thai and Middle Eastern patients, with third-quarter profit expected to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter; and tourism plays AOT, ERW, and CENTEL, after foreign tourist arrivals in July stood at 2.5 million, down 2.5% from a year earlier, but the average daily number rose 16% from the previous month, while Thai hotel RevPAR is expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month.

PTT Group reported combined second-quarter profit for 2025 of 103 billion baht, up 157% from the same period last year. This brought first-half combined profit to 175 billion baht, an increase of 106%. PTT Public Company Limited posted net profit of 52.525 billion baht, up more than 100%, driven by higher price spreads and bond buybacks. PTT Exploration and Production recorded net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101%, supported by record average sales volume of 572,882 barrels of oil equivalent per day. PTT Global Chemical swung to a profit of 12.208 billion baht from a loss of 3.616 billion baht a year earlier. Thai Oil posted net profit of 8.284 billion baht, up 28%. PTT Oil and Retail Business reported a net loss of 1.774 billion baht, compared with a profit of 2.232 billion baht a year earlier. IRPC swung to a profit of 2.921 billion baht from a loss of 2.132 billion baht. Global Power Synergy recorded net profit of 1.819 billion baht, down 10%.

Profits at PTT Group have recovered, with PTTEP remaining strong while PTTGC has swung back into the black, according to eFinanceThai. The news agency reported that the operating results of companies in PTT Group have improved markedly, especially PTTEP, which has continued to maintain its profitability, and PTTGC, which has successfully turned from a loss back to a profit.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

PTTGC expects its third quarter 2026 performance and the second half of the year to remain bright. The refinery business is supported by still-high product spreads and rising summer demand in the United States and Europe, while the petrochemical business expects the tight feedstock situation to ease somewhat because some producers have begun restarting operations. The company expects the average crude oil price in the third quarter of 2026 to be 75 to 83 dollars per barrel, down from 96 dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, and forecasts a full-year average of 75 to 90 dollars per barrel, up from 69 dollars per barrel last year. The board will consider an interim dividend payment soon, with a normal policy of paying no less than 30 percent of net profit. As for the joint investment study to establish a joint venture with SCGC, due diligence is underway and the company expects to reach a clear conclusion on valuation and structure by the end of the third quarter of 2026.

Bualuang Securities assesses the SET Index over the final five months of 2026 to be in a sideways-up trend, with a range of 1,580 to 1,700 points. Mr. Piriyapol Khongwanit, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, stated that first-half earnings of Thai listed companies grew strongly, leading to an upward revision of the market's earnings per share estimate by about 4% to 103 baht. When rolling over to mid-2027, the SET Index target becomes 1,710 points. The index is expected to peak in the fourth quarter, supported by the high season for tourism, stable high crude oil prices, and continued foreign capital inflows. Notably, net inflows in July reached as high as 47 billion baht, bringing total net purchases since the start of the year to around 74 billion baht. In the second half, there is potential for additional foreign inflows of 160 to 200 billion baht. On investment strategy, a barbell portfolio is recommended, balancing growth stocks and high-dividend stocks, highlighting five key themes: Long-term Growth, such as GULF, WHAUP, and GUNKUL; Defensive and Yield Play, such as KTB; Normalization and Stimulus, such as COM7, CRC, ERW, and CBG; Event Play from Super El Niño, such as CPF, BTG, and ICHI; and Geopolitical and Inflation Hedge, such as PTT and PTTGC. It also advises avoiding property and asset management stocks due to fragile domestic purchasing power. Meanwhile, US technology stocks remain positive despite short-term corrections, recommending accumulation of quality growth names with clear earnings and valuation support. For Thai technology stocks, only short-term speculative trading is suggested. Mr. Chaiporn Nompitakcharoen, Managing Director of Securities Business at Bualuang Securities, disclosed that for the final five months, the recommended portfolio allocation is 74% equities, 22% fixed income, and 4% alternative assets and gold. The US stock market is viewed as the most attractive, while the firm continues to expand its wealth advisory business and promote block trades to capture the uptrend.

CGSI's research team recommends holding PTTGC shares, setting a target price of 41 baht based on an EV/EBITDA of 8.25 times in 2027. Following the second-quarter 2026 analyst meeting, PTTGC maintains a positive outlook on oil prices and expects diesel crack spreads to remain elevated at around 58 to 60 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb may support PE and MEG prices in the short term. However, the company is becoming cautious about demand and the risk of Chinese goods facing anti-dumping duties. As for Allnex, which is wholly owned by PTTGC, sales volume in the second half of 2026 is expected to grow from the previous year at a low-to-mid single-digit rate, with EBITDA of 170 million euros in the first half, sufficient to cover 40 million euros in interest and taxes, reflecting positive operating cash flow. Meanwhile, PTTGC's net debt-to-equity ratio declined from 54% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 37% at the end of the second quarter of 2026.

PTTGC shares closed the morning session at 39.00 baht, up 1.50 baht or 4.00 percent, after reporting second-quarter 2026 net profit of 15.6 billion baht, the highest on record and above research forecasts of 14 billion baht. The result marked a sharp jump from profit of 6.0 billion baht in the previous quarter, driven by accelerating refining margins and petrochemical spreads, a strong recovery in sales volumes amid tight supply, and high margins from the energy segment, especially sustainable aviation fuel and refined oil products. Following the standout earnings, several research houses raised their target prices, with CLSA lifting to 46.00 baht, and Tisco Securities, KGI Securities, Bualuang Securities, and Krungsri Securities raising to a range of 41.50 to 43.50 baht. Additional positive factors include progress on the joint venture deal with SCGC and the push into specialty and green bio businesses to increase the share of EBITDA from specialty chemicals and environmentally friendly products.

Newspapers report that PTTGC guarantees there will be no more losses, moving forward with portfolio adjustments to reduce and exit unprofitable businesses while accelerating the strengthening of core operations. The company is pushing specialty chemicals and Green & Bio businesses to increase the proportion of high-value segments. In the first half of 2026, it posted a net profit of 15.44 billion baht and holds over 50 billion baht in cash. The company targets an additional 4 billion baht in revenue increases and cost reductions, alongside debt reduction of 116 billion baht already achieved, and will close a joint venture deal with SCGC to upgrade olefins and polyolefins businesses this September, aiming to become a leading producer in ASEAN.

Analysts expect PTT to report a record net profit of 49 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026 on August 13, driven by strong gas and exploration and production businesses amid higher oil prices and Middle East supply concerns, as well as gains from oil price hedging contracts that reversed from losses in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, four of the seven subsidiaries under PTT Group have already announced their second-quarter 2026 results, with PTTGC standing out with a net profit of 12.208 billion baht, swinging from a loss a year earlier and surging 278 percent from the previous quarter. PTTEP posted a net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101 percent year-on-year. GPSC reported a net profit of 1.8191 billion baht, down 9.91 percent year-on-year but up 6 percent from the prior quarter. OR was the weakest performer, swinging to a net loss of 1.77495 billion baht from a profit of 2.2318 billion baht a year earlier and a profit of 2.414752 billion baht in the first quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities said the overall performance of PTT Group was much better than market expectations, especially PTTGC and PTTEP, which will be key profit contributors driving PTT's results higher as well. For the third quarter of 2026 outlook, the refining group still has positive factors from Brent crude oil prices above 80 dollars per barrel and expected strong refining margins, with top picks being TOP with a target price of 61 baht and PTTGC with a target price of 46.50 baht.

PTTGC has revealed its new business direction, focusing on strengthening its petrochemical operations while accelerating expansion into specialty chemicals and green & bio to build a high-value, low-carbon portfolio. In the second quarter of 2026, the company posted adjusted EBITDA of 26.93 billion baht, an 81 percent increase from the previous quarter, and net profit of 12.21 billion baht. For the first half, adjusted EBITDA stood at 41.78 billion baht and net profit at 15.44 billion baht. Chief Executive Officer Narongsak Jivakanun said the company has laid a foundation based on an integrated business structure and feedstock flexibility to cope with future volatility. PTTGC aims to shift its portfolio mix between commodity and specialty businesses from roughly 80:20 to 70:30 by 2030, while targeting an additional EBITDA uplift of 300 million US dollars per year by the same year. In addition, allnex, a group company, has announced an expansion of its sagging control agent production capacity at Map Ta Phut, which will be its first production base outside Europe, and is also pressing ahead with expanding production bases in China and India. Meanwhile, the green & bio business has progressed to actual investments, such as the PLA bioplastics plant of NatureWorks at the Nakhon Sawan Biocomplex, and ENVICCO, Thailand's first producer of high-quality recycled plastic pellets, which is now running at full capacity.

Krungsri Securities has significantly raised its core profit estimates for PTTGC in 2026 and 2027. The 2026 forecast jumps 117 percent to 29.53 billion baht, while the 2027 estimate rises 64 percent to 17.225 billion baht. The broker also rolls forward its target price to 2027 at 50 baht per share and maintains a buy rating, naming PTTGC a top pick in the sector. Key drivers include the company’s ability to capture a premium in the second quarter of 2026, alongside tight energy supply that supports the refining business. Meanwhile, global petrochemical capacity restructuring is helping to reduce excess supply in the market. Land and Houses Securities shares a similar view on the third-quarter 2026 earnings trend, noting that the refining business remains PTTGC’s star performer after refining margins in the third quarter to date have improved sharply compared with the previous quarter.

CLSA has raised its target price for PTTGC shares to 46 baht from 43 baht, while maintaining an Outperform rating, after second-quarter 2026 results came in better than expected. PTTGC reported a net profit of 12.2 billion baht, exceeding CLSA's estimate by 14% and beating market expectations by 48%, recovering from a profit of 3.2 billion baht in the previous quarter and swinging from a loss of 3.6 billion baht in the same period last year. The refinery business was the main driver, with a gross refining margin of 15.6 dollars per barrel, pushing adjusted upstream EBITDA up 18% quarter-on-quarter to 15.2 billion baht. Meanwhile, the polymers and chemicals business swung to an EBITDA of 5.1 billion baht, and the performance chemicals business posted an EBITDA of 4 billion baht, up 69%. CLSA expects refinery momentum to remain strong in the second half of 2026, raising its gross refining margin assumptions for 2026 to 2028 and lifting its 2026 profit forecast by 52%. It also views positively the cooperation study between PTTGC and SCC, which could lead to a merger creating the largest polyolefins company in ASEAN.

Asia Plus Securities forecasts that PTT Global Chemical's net profit in the second quarter of 2026 will jump to around 10.5 billion baht, up from 3.2 billion baht in the previous quarter. The main driver is a 131 percent surge in normalised operating profit compared with the prior quarter, with all business units returning to profitability. The olefins and polymers petrochemical business stands out, lifted by average product spreads widening by 200 to 400 US dollars per tonne and higher utilisation rates. The research team has raised its full-year 2026 profit estimate to 19 billion baht, maintained a buy recommendation with a target price of 42 baht per share, and expects a full-year dividend of 1.5 baht per share, implying a dividend yield of around 4.0 percent.

Petrochemical product spreads are beginning to signal a recovery, while refining margins continue to rise. Dubai crude oil prices weakened by 6.96 US dollars per barrel to 80.88 US dollars per barrel, driven by expectations of ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the United States. The Wealth Research team at Bualuang Securities noted that most petrochemical spreads increased last week, following a decline in naphtha feedstock costs in line with crude oil prices. Petrochemical stocks such as IVL and PTTGC have still lagged the refinery sector, making them increasingly attractive. Meanwhile, Singapore market reference refining margins rose by 2.85 US dollars per barrel to 29.68 US dollars per barrel. The Newcastle Export Index coal price fell by 0.83 US dollars per tonne to 132.76 US dollars per tonne, and the Baltic Dry Index dropped 25 points to 2,679 points.

Crude oil prices rose sharply, supported by the re-escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which tightened some energy product supplies. The average Dubai crude price increased by 10.34 US dollars per barrel week-on-week to 87.84 US dollars per barrel, while the Singapore market reference refining margin rose by 0.94 US dollars per barrel week-on-week to 26.83 US dollars per barrel. Petrochemical spreads narrowed as naphtha feedstock costs rose faster than product prices, with the ethylene spread falling by 106 US dollars per tonne week-on-week to minus 14 US dollars per tonne, and the propylene spread declining by 86 US dollars per tonne week-on-week to 36 US dollars per tonne. The Wealth Research team at Bualuang Securities noted that the blockade of shipping lanes in the Red Sea could support freight rates in the short term, and recommended rotating investments from refinery stocks into petrochemical stocks such as IVL and PTTGC, whose share prices have lagged.

Second-quarter 2025 earnings for US refiners stood out on surging refining margins. Valero Energy posted a net profit of 3.7 billion US dollars, a more than fivefold increase. HF Sinclair reported net profit of 892 million US dollars, up nearly four times, while PBF Energy swung to a net profit of 915 million US dollars from a net loss a year earlier. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum are also expected to report strong results. For Thai refiners, although they too benefit from refining margins, each company's performance will differ, depending on refinery configuration, crude oil quality, production efficiency, price risk management, and inventory gains or losses in each period. In addition, refiners must shoulder rising hidden costs, such as crude oil premiums, freight rates, and higher insurance premiums driven by Middle East risk, which could add as much as 3 to 6 baht per litre. They also face risks from oil inventory losses, higher financing costs from increased working capital, pressure from government and social measures, and the need to invest in the clean energy transition under Net Zero targets and ESG standards. Key listed Thai companies with core oil refining operations include Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, while PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has a refining business as part of its integrated structure.

PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has filed a registration statement with the SEC to issue two tranches of unsubordinated, unsecured bonds for public offering. The first tranche has a 7-year maturity with a coupon of 2.65 to 2.80 percent per annum, and the second has a 10-year maturity with a coupon of 3.00 to 3.15 percent per annum. Interest is paid every six months, and the issuer has the right to early redemption. Subscription is divided into three periods in September 2026, starting with existing holders of PTTGC296A bonds on the 14th and 15th, followed by senior investors aged 60 and above on the 16th and 17th, and the general public on the 18th and 21st. Bank of Ayudhya acts as the bondholder representative, with seven joint lead arrangers. Fitch Ratings has assigned a national long-term rating of AA minus tha.

DELTA shares closed down 7.37% on July 30, 2026, after the Thai stock market reopened, bringing the two-day decline to 43 baht, or 14%, and dragging the SET Index to close at 1,598.11 points, down 26.36 points or 1.62%. Turnover was heavy at 112.05 billion baht, with the main selling pressure coming from securities company proprietary accounts, which offloaded 3.42 billion baht, foreign investors selling 1.74 billion baht, and domestic institutions selling 1.19 billion baht, while retail investors bought back 6.36 billion baht. Electronics stocks were hammered by the global sell-off in technology and semiconductor shares, with the ETRON Index plunging 7.38% to close at 29,900.84 points. Bualuang Securities recommends rotating out of electronics into laggard petrochemical names such as IVL and PTTGC, while highlighting upstream energy plays like PTTEP and PTT, which stand to benefit from Dubai crude oil prices surging by 10.34 dollars to 87.84 dollars per barrel amid Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, TISCO ESU sees funds rotating into fundamentally strong energy and basic materials stocks, riding the commodity cycle recovery.

Bualuang Securities is advising investors to rotate from refinery stocks into petrochemical stocks that are still lagging, highlighting IVL and PTTGC as standout picks to benefit long-term from crude oil prices surging past 87 dollars per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions. The average Dubai crude price last week rose by 10.34 dollars to 87.84 dollars per barrel, while the Singapore GRM increased further to 26.83 dollars per barrel. In petrochemicals, although most product prices rose, the chemical spread weakened because naphtha prices increased faster. Bualuang Securities maintains an overweight rating on the petrochemical sector and views that if tensions ease, oil and petroleum product supply will return to the market and pressure prices going forward. As for the Thai stock market today, caution is needed on pressure on the electronics sector from a global sell-off in chip and AI hardware stocks that has spread heavily, especially the KOSPI which plunged more than 12 percent intraday and triggered circuit breakers for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, global oil prices surged more than 7 percent, supporting positive sentiment for upstream energy and commodity hedges such as PTTEP, PTT, PTTGC, IVL, and IRPC.

Krungsri has raised its normalised profit forecast for IRPC for 2026 and 2027 to approximately 10 billion baht and 3.5 billion baht respectively, reflecting tighter-than-expected supply conditions from the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States. The research team expects second-quarter 2026 net profit of around 2.797 billion baht, swinging to a profit year-on-year but down 65 percent from the previous quarter, with a modest net stock loss of about 1.3 billion baht. Excluding extraordinary items, normalised profit would be around 3.948 billion baht, up 226 percent quarter-on-quarter and swinging to a profit year-on-year, supported by both the refinery and petrochemical businesses benefiting from higher product spreads amid tight global supply. Krungsri maintains a Neutral recommendation and raises its 2026 target price to 2.40 baht, noting that investors can gradually switch to PTTGC or SCC, which stand to benefit more prominently.

Bualuang Securities expects net profit of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 to expand 24 percent from the same period last year and rise 2 percent from the first quarter, supported by higher energy prices, petrochemical spreads, mobile and internet service revenue, lower network costs, demand for electronic components for artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as new power generation capacity and profits from GULF's overseas power plant business. Meanwhile, the meat sector is pressured by lower meat prices, the banking group by narrowing interest margins, and the hospital group by fewer cash-paying patients and a slowdown in non-urgent treatments. Bualuang Securities highlights two investment approaches: picking stocks with still-strong second-quarter profit trends such as PTT, PTTGC, TRUE, ADVANC, AMATA, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP, and gradually accumulating stocks with weak prices but expected strong profit recovery in the second half, such as CBG, ERW, CPF, and BTG.

Shares in the refinery and petrochemical sector posted strong gains in morning trade today, with SPRC leading the pack, up 8.63 percent to 10.70 baht. TOP rose 1.56 percent to 65.00 baht, IRPC added 1.77 percent to 2.30 baht, BCP gained 1.67 percent to 45.75 baht, and PTTGC edged up 0.25 percent to 40.75 baht. Krungsri Securities' research unit expects SPRC to report a core operating profit of approximately 6.71 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, a jump of 3,386 percent from the same period a year earlier and a 314 percent increase from the previous quarter. That core profit came in above the research team's earlier estimate, as crude premiums were lower than expected while global supply of crude oil and petroleum products was tighter than assessed. Meanwhile, Land and Houses Securities estimates TOP will post a core profit of around 16 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 479 percent year-on-year, supported by strong refining margins despite extraordinary losses from oil stockpiles. Krungsri Securities has raised its 2026 core profit forecast for SPRC by 303 percent to 14.87 billion baht and maintains a buy rating with a target price of 11.50 baht. Land and Houses Securities recommends a speculative buy on TOP with a target price of 66 baht.