Calacanis Predicts Tesla's Optimus Will Eclipse iPhone, 1 Billion Robots by 2036

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Venture capitalist Jason Calacanis predicts Tesla Inc. will turn its Optimus humanoid robot into a product bigger than Apple Inc.'s iPhone, forecasting 1 billion Optimus robots worldwide by 2036. Speaking on the This Week in Startups podcast after watching the World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing, Calacanis said he had recently seen an Optimus demonstration that has not been publicly shown. He argued Tesla's hardware is roughly one and a half generations ahead of robots he watched compete, while its brain is substantially more advanced, and predicted Optimus would win 35 of the competition's 51 events. Reuters reported that more than 2,000 robots from 666 teams competed at this year's Games, testing everything from running and tennis to factory assembly and restaurant service. Calacanis went further, guaranteeing that in 10 years there will be 1 billion Optimuses in the world, and noted Tesla is already replacing its former Model S and Model X production area with an Optimus line, a shift CEO Elon Musk confirmed earlier this year. Tesla ended production of both vehicles to make room for robots as it committed more than $20 billion to capital spending in 2026, and Musk cautioned that Optimus will be Tesla's hardest product to scale manufacturing because the company must create an entirely new supply chain. Musk has said the Fremont line ultimately targets 1 million robots annually, with an even larger Texas operation planned later, but warned initial production will be agonizingly slow. Not everyone shares Calacanis' certainty, as investor Ross Gerber has questioned Optimus' near-term commercial prospects, and Unitree founder Wang Xingxing recently suggested humanoids could still be years from their ChatGPT moment.

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Calacanis predicts Optimus will be bigger than iPhone, with Tesla's hardware and brain ahead of competitors.

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