Yuanta Securities has raised its fair value for CBG to 81.00 baht, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation and selecting it as a top pick for the sector in 4Q26. The brokerage expects earnings to return to year-on-year growth from 3Q26 onward, driven by the turnaround of loss-making businesses, growth from new product launches, and revenue from Cambodia, which is currently factored in at only 20.0% of normal levels. Preliminary normal profit for 3Q26 is estimated at 700-740 million baht, flat to slightly down quarter-on-quarter but up year-on-year. Revenue is expected to continue growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, supported by domestic business expansion across all segments due to new products and channel expansion, as well as the full-quarter benefit from the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" program. Overseas revenue may decline quarter-on-quarter due to the low season in Myanmar, but should still show strong year-on-year growth thanks to the new plant in Myanmar established in late 2025. Gross profit margin may decline to 25.0% from 26.4% in 2Q26, reflecting the full-quarter impact of higher energy and packaging costs. The brokerage maintains its 2026-2027 normal profit forecasts at 2,712 million baht (-4.4% year-on-year) and 3,124 million baht (+15.2% year-on-year), the highest in six years. There is also upside risk from the recovery of the Cambodian business, revenue recognition from "starter culture" in China, and potentially better-than-expected profit contributions from subsidiaries.
Carabao Group Public Company LimitedYuanta raised CBG's fair value to 81 baht, maintained Buy, and named it a top sector pick on expected earnings recovery from 3Q26.
