The research division of CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, maintains a buy recommendation on CPALL shares with a target price of 61.50 baht, expecting the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 to be the year's low point and performance to recover clearly in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 after the Thai Chuay Thai Plus programme ends in September. CPALL reported normalised profit for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 at 7.4 billion baht, up 5.6 percent from a year earlier but down 17.1 percent from the previous quarter, in line with CGSI estimates and the Bloomberg consensus. The convenience store business, or CVS, remained strong, with revenue growing 5.3 percent from a year earlier, EBIT margin rising 60 basis points to 10.0 percent, and net profit increasing 13.5 percent from a year earlier. As a result, first-half net profit stood at 16.6 billion baht, up 15.9 percent from a year earlier, accounting for 53 percent of CGSI's full-year estimate. However, same-store sales growth, or SSSG, for CVS in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 was positive 0.8 percent, slowing because the Thai Chuay Thai Plus programme temporarily diverted purchasing power from 7-Eleven stores. Management disclosed that SSSG during the first 10 to 12 days of June was negative in the low single digits before gradually recovering towards the end of the month. CGSI views the impact from the programme as smaller than the market feared, and downside risk in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 is likely to diminish, supported by the tourism high season, a low base from government measures in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, and lower oil prices helping reduce transport costs and supporting gross margin.
CP ALL Public Company LimitedCGSI maintains buy rating with target price 61.50 baht, expects Q3 low point and Q4 recovery.
