CP ALL Public Company Limited

Charoen Pokphand Group (CP Group), AIS Ventures Group, True Corporation, and Amazon have announced a five-year strategic partnership to elevate Thailand into a regional AI hub, with the goal of training 3 million Thais, including CP Group employees, in cloud and AI skills through courses and training programs in collaboration with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The partnership covers multiple areas, including the development of CP Group's AI Center of Excellence, elevating True into an AI-First Organization, using AWS in Ascend Money's financial services, and transforming over 19,000 service points of 7-Eleven, Lotus's, and Makro with AI and cloud technology. Additionally, an AI innovation hackathon platform named "AI FOR ALL" will be launched, allowing Thais aged 18 and above to develop Generative AI prototypes to address national challenges in public health, agriculture, and education. Mr. Supachai Chearavanont, Senior Vice President of CP Group, stated that Thailand must build a robust AI ecosystem and leverage the Thai capital market as a gateway for future startup listings.

Analysts at Yuanta Securities Thailand expect CPALL's share price to have rebound potential after trading in a range of 46.50 to 49.00 baht over the past two months and approaching support again. Third-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2026 are expected to grow year-on-year, driven by store expansion and continued same-store sales growth from the previous quarter. At the same time, large-cap stocks in the SET50 index are expected to benefit from foreign fund inflows after the Thailand Focus event concludes between August 26 and 28. CPALL is valued at an inexpensive level of only 13.7 times price-to-earnings and offers a dividend yield of around 4% per year.

CGS International Securities Thailand has raised its year-end 2026 SET index target to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, after second-quarter 2026 listed-company earnings came in stronger than expected. The firm lifted its 2026 market EPS estimate by 8%. Aggregate net profit of the companies it covers rose 10% year on year and 14% quarter on quarter, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, profit would have fallen 25% year on year and 6% quarter on quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT.

UBS has raised its target for the Thai stock market index to 1,680 points in its base case. In the best case, the index could climb to test a high of 1,840 points, while in the worst case it could fall to 1,460 points. The bank also recommends six top picks: CP All, Central Pattana, Gulf Energy Development, Krung Thai Bank, PTT, and True Corporation. At the same time, it has removed Advanced Info Service, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, Berli Jucker, and Asset World Corp from its recommended list. Trading data from the start of the year through 17 August 2026 shows UBS has accumulated net sales of 5.50 billion baht, with net sales of 3.24 billion baht in August alone. Mongkol Puangpetra, managing director of Apollo Wealth Securities, views the 1,680-point level as a target many parties have already assessed, but reaching 1,820 points would be very challenging. Even though second-quarter profit for the Thai stock market hit a record high of about 380 billion baht, and trailing twelve-month profit reached 1.2 trillion baht, he recommends gradually selling to lock in profits when the index approaches 1,630 to 1,650 points, and keeping an eye on PTT and PTT Exploration and Production, which may pay higher-than-normal dividends.

KGI Securities Thailand has raised its 2026 SET index target to 1,820 points, seeing upside of about 12% from current levels after its latest earnings-per-share estimate revisions and an increase in its target price-to-earnings multiple to 14.8 times, which is the 10-year average minus 0.5 standard deviation. In the second quarter of 2026, combined profit of companies under KGI's coverage was 302 billion baht, up 13% from a year earlier and from the previous quarter, about 10% above the Bloomberg consensus. But excluding the energy and petrochemical sector, which benefited from surging oil prices and wider product spreads because of the US-Iran war, quarterly profit would have fallen 26% from a year earlier and 6.2% from the previous quarter. The sharp year-on-year profit decline was due to an unusually high profit base at GULF in the second quarter of 2025, when a large one-time gain was booked. KGI views the new target as quite challenging because the earnings estimate upgrades are concentrated in the energy sector, which is cyclical and trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple than other sectors, and the best quarter for energy may already be behind us. As a result, only a few large domestic stocks still offer attractive risk-reward, such as CPALL, CPN, KBANK, KTB and GULF.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council reported that gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 1.9% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter but above the market forecast of 1.7%. The main support came from private investment, which grew strongly in line with investment promotion applications, while private consumption slowed to 1.9% from 3.3% in the previous quarter amid higher domestic energy prices, and government spending was weak because disbursement had already been accelerated earlier. Yuanta Securities expects consumption to recover clearly in the third quarter from the full-quarter impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures, and government spending to accelerate toward the end of the fiscal year. It maintains a positive view on construction contractors, power plants, industrial estates, retail, and food and beverage, citing stocks CK, STECON, GUNKUL, GULF, FORTH, SAMART, EPG, BJC, CPALL and CBG. The planning agency also raised its GDP forecast for this year to 2.0 to 2.5% from 1.5 to 2.5%, and lowered its inflation forecast to 1.5 to 2.0% from 2.0 to 3.0%, which helps ease pressure on monetary policy tightening.

KGI Securities has raised its 2026 SET index target to 1,820 points after second-quarter 2026 profit for companies under its coverage came in 10% above expectations. Combined profit was 302 billion baht, up 13% from both a year earlier and the previous quarter. Excluding the energy and petrochemical sectors, however, profit fell 26% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, due to a high base from GULF's special profit in the second quarter of 2025. The research team said 40% of stocks under coverage beat earnings expectations, 41% were in line, and 20% missed. Electronics, transport, and banking delivered strong results, while tourism and media were broadly neutral. Momentum in earnings-per-share upgrades is peaking and is expected to stabilise over the rest of the year. The new target still implies 12% upside from current levels, but it is quite challenging because earnings upgrades are concentrated in the energy sector, which is cyclical and trades at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than other sectors. Stocks that still offer upside to target prices include CPALL, CPN, KBANK, KTB, and GULF.

The research division of CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, maintains a buy recommendation on CPALL shares with a target price of 61.50 baht, expecting the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 to be the year's low point and performance to recover clearly in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 after the Thai Chuay Thai Plus programme ends in September. CPALL reported normalised profit for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 at 7.4 billion baht, up 5.6 percent from a year earlier but down 17.1 percent from the previous quarter, in line with CGSI estimates and the Bloomberg consensus. The convenience store business, or CVS, remained strong, with revenue growing 5.3 percent from a year earlier, EBIT margin rising 60 basis points to 10.0 percent, and net profit increasing 13.5 percent from a year earlier. As a result, first-half net profit stood at 16.6 billion baht, up 15.9 percent from a year earlier, accounting for 53 percent of CGSI's full-year estimate. However, same-store sales growth, or SSSG, for CVS in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 was positive 0.8 percent, slowing because the Thai Chuay Thai Plus programme temporarily diverted purchasing power from 7-Eleven stores. Management disclosed that SSSG during the first 10 to 12 days of June was negative in the low single digits before gradually recovering towards the end of the month. CGSI views the impact from the programme as smaller than the market feared, and downside risk in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 is likely to diminish, supported by the tourism high season, a low base from government measures in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, and lower oil prices helping reduce transport costs and supporting gross margin.

Land and Houses Securities has issued a research note recommending a buy on CPALL with a target price of 64 baht and on COM7 with a target price of 32.65 baht, based on fundamentals and stock-specific strategies. CPALL reported second-quarter 2026 profit of 7.5 billion baht, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier. Although the wholesale business remains weak, it was supported by hot weather and more Chinese tourists, especially through the O2O channel. Gross margin was stable amid high energy costs, but product margin improved thanks to high-margin food and beverage items. The company maintains its target of opening 700 new stores in Thailand in 2026 and continues to expand in Laos. Second-half profit is expected to keep growing from a year earlier, but the third quarter of 2026 may soften from the previous quarter due to the seasonal low season. COM7 reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.303 billion baht, up 29.9 percent from a year earlier and 6.3 percent from the previous quarter. Revenue rose 16.4 percent from a year earlier, driven by a leap in the non-retail business. Gross margin increased to 14.3 percent from 13.8 percent a year earlier, helped by higher-margin subsidiaries and inventory gains from selling older-cost goods at new prices that are 20 to 30 percent higher amid component shortages. Management has raised its 2026 revenue target to growth of no less than 10 to 15 percent and its net profit target for the parent company to growth of no less than 20 percent.

CP All is targeting gross margin expansion of around 10-20% in 2026, driven by a focus on new differentiated products and promotions across both offline and online channels to increase store traffic and spending per bill. In the third quarter of 2026, same-store sales remained positive, and the fourth quarter is expected to benefit from the high season and tourism festivals. The company aims for same-store sales growth this year in line with Thailand's GDP, which is forecast at 1.5-2%. Currently, average store traffic is 959 customers per store per day, with average spending per bill of 90 baht. Capital expenditure for 2026 is set at 12-13.6 billion baht, with 50% allocated to store expansion, targeting about 700 new stores from 16,284 stores at the end of the second quarter of 2026, and the remaining 50% for IT system development.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited said CPALL reported 2Q26 core profit of 7.40 billion baht, up 6% from a year earlier but down 17% from the previous quarter, broadly in line with analyst and market expectations. Including a foreign exchange gain of 113 million baht, net profit was 7.51 billion baht, up 11% from a year earlier but down 18% from the previous quarter on seasonal factors. Year-on-year growth came from the convenience store business and related businesses, which accounted for 85% of profit, with profit rising 18% on a 0.8% increase in same-store sales. Store count expanded to 16,284, up 689 stores from a year earlier and 200 stores from the previous quarter. Selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales fell 20 basis points from a year earlier, and sales support income grew well, helping to offset CPAXT profit, which accounted for 15% of profit and fell 18% from a year earlier due to weaker same-store sales, with wholesale down 0.9% and retail down 3.9%. Gross margin fell 20 basis points from a year earlier, while expenses rose to support online channels, new stores, and Happitat. For 3Q26 core profit momentum, growth from a year earlier is still expected because convenience store same-store sales are still growing 1%, and energy cost pressure is expected to ease, so convenience store gross margin should expand from a year earlier. Meanwhile, core profit is expected to soften from the previous quarter on rainy-season seasonality. Krungsri Securities maintains a buy rating with a 2027 target price of 66 baht, viewing CPALL as a defensive growth stock driven by new product strategies and improving 7-Eleven margins, allowing profit to grow even while purchasing power recovers slowly. Core profit for 2026 to 2027 is forecast at 30.5 billion baht and 32.7 billion baht, growing 8% and 7% from a year earlier respectively. The stock trades at a one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 13.6 times, about one standard deviation below its three-year average, with upside of around 35%.

CP All Public Company Limited, or CPALL, reported second-quarter net profit for 2026 of 7.512 billion baht, up 11% from the same period last year. Total revenue was 265.76 billion baht, up 3.6% year on year. Revenue from sales of goods and services was 257.098 billion baht, up 3.3% from the same period a year earlier, driven by higher sales revenue across all business groups. The convenience store business, wholesale and retail business and shopping malls, and other business groups all improved, supported by efficient cost and expense control. For the first half of 2026, the company posted net profit of 16.629 billion baht, up 15.85% from 14.353 billion baht in the same period last year.

TTB Wealth Securities maintains an Overweight recommendation on the retail sector, assessing that sector earnings have passed their trough and the contraction in same-store sales is coming to an end. It expects combined earnings per share of the retail companies under its coverage to grow 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, although down 16 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, and forecasts a continued recovery in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include a return to same-store sales growth, margin expansion from better product selection, and cost savings. The broker expects home improvement and furnishing retail stocks, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, and HMPRO, as well as CRC, to show the strongest recovery, while CPN, CPALL, and COM7 continue to grow well on successful business strategies. For the building materials and home furnishing retail group, the securities firm estimates EPS will grow 37 percent in the second quarter of 2026, after earnings contracted continuously during 2023 to 2025, supported by better margins, a narrowing decline in same-store sales growth, and favorable product pricing from inflation. GLOBAL is seen as the standout, with earnings expected to grow 84 percent, driven by a higher proportion of house-brand products, cost control, and favorable pricing. CRC is expected to post 36 percent earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to business strategy adjustments that support both same-store sales and margins, as well as lower marketing and interest expenses. Meanwhile, CPN is forecast to grow earnings by 15 percent, CPALL by 7 percent, COM7 by 30 percent, and MOSHI by 19 percent, with these companies seen as continuing to gain market share and expand margins. On the other hand, CPAXT is estimated to see earnings fall a further 17 percent due to weak same-store sales and margin compression from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods. For BJC, although earnings are expected to rise 12 percent from the acquisition of a wholesale business in Vietnam, the core BigC business remains weak with negative same-store sales growth. MRDIY is forecast to grow earnings by only 13 percent, below expectations, despite rapid store expansion. TTB Wealth Securities says the trend for the second half of 2026 will strengthen as the economy improves, maintaining a positive bias on building materials and CRC, and selecting CPN, GLOBAL, and CRC as top picks in the retail sector. For recommendations and target prices, stocks rated BUY are CPN with a target price of 75 baht, GLOBAL at 9 baht, CRC at 31 baht, CPALL at 62 baht, COM7 at 34 baht, DOHOME at 4.50 baht, HMPRO at 9.50 baht, MOSHI at 50 baht, and MRDIYT at 12.20 baht. CPAXT is rated HOLD with a target price of 14 baht, and BJC is rated SELL with a target price of 12.50 baht.

Kasikorn Securities forecasts that CP All Public Company Limited, or CPALL, will post a net profit of 7.5 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 10.9% from the same period last year but down 17.7% from the previous quarter. The year-on-year growth was driven by a strong convenience store business, while the quarter-on-quarter decline reflects higher selling and administrative expenses from energy costs and utilities. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities estimates second-quarter 2026 net profit at 7.3 billion baht, down 20% from the prior quarter but up 8% from a year earlier, with the sequential drop due to seasonality and weaker purchasing power. Both brokers maintain a buy recommendation and see full-year 2026 profit growing to 32 billion baht, up 16% from the previous year, with earnings expected to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026, the high season for the business.

Bualuang Securities revealed that net profits for the second quarter of 2069 for stocks under its coverage came in 5.6% above market expectations, with 48% of stocks beating estimates compared to a five-year average of 37%. Standout performers were led by SCC, up 41% from its petrochemical business, SCGP up 20% from packaging and recycling, KKP up 18% from non-interest income, and TU up 10.9% from seafood demand. Meanwhile, DELTA missed profit forecasts by 31% due to supply chain issues. The research team also noted positive signals from IT retail sales at COM7 and ADVICE, which grew 10% and 17% year-on-year in July. In the lifestyle segment, MOSHI saw same-store sales rise 9% on the squishy toy trend. Tourism continued to recover, with foreign arrivals in July reaching 2.5 million, and ERW's revenue per available room expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month. Export demand for food and pet food remained strong, with TU projecting 5-6% growth and ITC projecting 10% growth. The investment strategy therefore focuses on COM7, ADVICE, MOSHI, CPALL, ERW, TU, and ITC.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the global investment landscape is facing challenges on all fronts, amid a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US employment, which fuels hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate at the September meeting. Meanwhile, domestic factors are receiving a significant boost from the rapidly strengthening baht, supported by continued foreign inflows into the Thai bond market, with cumulative net purchases this month exceeding 9.2 billion baht. The baht recently touched 32.98 per US dollar. The research team has identified three main industry groups in Thailand that stand to benefit positively from the strong baht. The first group comprises large-cap stocks that are prime targets for foreign fund flows, including commercial banks such as KBANK, SCB, BBL, and KTB; retail and tourism plays like AOT, CPALL, and CRC; telecoms such as ADVANC and TRUE; and construction materials like SCC. The second group consists of companies with high foreign-currency debt or costs, including power and energy firms such as GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and PTTEP, and airlines like AAV. The third group covers businesses that rely heavily on imported raw materials, including agriculture and food companies such as TFG and TVO. In addition, the research team recommends portfolio strategies to navigate volatility, highlighting safe-haven stocks combined with gold as a hedge, and names SYNTEC, PTT, and GUNKUL as top picks for the Thai stock market, along with LITE01 and ZIJIN80 for overseas investment.

Kingsford Securities expects the SET index to trade sideways today within a support level of 1,600 points and resistance at 1,620 to 1,630 points, awaiting the outcome of negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz and supported by strong earnings from large listed companies. The brokerage recommends gradually accumulating Value and Defensive Play stocks, naming 10 securities: KBANK, KTB, GULF, GPSC, ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, BH, BDMS, and BEM. For ADVICE, it recommends speculative buying with an IAA Consensus target price of 7.80 baht, expecting second-quarter 2026 profit to rise both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, driven by improving gross margins as IT product prices gradually increase, while robust sales of smartphones and other goods help offset the shortage of iPhones. The market forecasts 2026–2027 profit at 401 million baht, up 50% from the previous year, and 413 million baht, up 3% from the previous year. For AP, it recommends buying with an IAA Consensus target price of 9.74 baht, benefiting from the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for residential properties priced up to 7 million baht, extended until 30 June 2027. It expects second-quarter 2026 pre-sales to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supported by low-rise projects and a low base last year due to the earthquake. The market forecasts 2026 net profit at 4.62 billion baht, up 7% from the previous year, and 2027 net profit at 4.92 billion baht, up 6% from the previous year, with a forward PE of 5.6 times, PBV of 0.5 times, and dividend yield of 6.5%.

Analysts recommend watching CPALL and FORTH shares after both companies reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. CPALL posted standout net profit growth driven by a recovery in same-store sales and higher rental income, while FORTH was supported by government projects and a continued expansion in its renewable energy business. Several brokers have upgraded their recommendations and target prices for both stocks, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings momentum next year.

Asia Plus Securities recommends CPALL, DOHOME, and THAI as standout stocks benefiting from the decline in Brent crude oil prices below 80 US dollars per barrel, following hopes for a temporary agreement in the Strait of Hormuz. This has led the market to reduce the probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates to 4.0 percent, down to 53 percent from 67 percent previously, while US Treasury yields have fallen by more than 1 percent, supporting US stock indices to gain between 1.7 and 2.6 percent and sending continued positive momentum to Asian equity markets, with South Korea surging 3.7 percent and Japan up 3.1 percent. The research team also advises closely monitoring US economic data this week, as well as the direction of the yen, which could experience a short squeeze if the Bank of Japan intervenes in the market. In the technology sector, the US Federal Communications Commission is preparing to ban imports of new optical transceivers from China within this year, which is negative for Chinese manufacturers such as DR: ZJINNO80 but positive for US producers, recommending short-term speculation in DR: COHR23 and DR: LITE80. Meanwhile, SanDisk and SK Hynix have jointly launched HBF memory chips to address bottlenecks in AI inference workloads, with the market forecasting that SanDisk's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 will grow 354 percent and earnings per share will surge as much as 11,751 percent compared to the same period last year, thus recommending speculation through DR: SNDK03. On the domestic economic front, the market expects July 2026 inflation to expand by 2.55 percent, while the research team assesses that second-half inflation will move within a range of 2.65 to 2.85 percent, consistent with the Bank of Thailand's target framework, making it highly likely that the central bank will maintain the policy rate at 1.0 percent through year-end. Regarding the Thai stock market, although regional markets have advanced, the SET Index may rise less due to the heavy weighting of commodity stocks at 25.1 percent of total market capitalization, and there is potential for profit-taking as the index tests resistance at 1,350 points. Foreign capital flows are beginning to show signs of slowing and switching to net selling, causing a rotation into stocks primarily reliant on domestic economic activity. The investment strategy therefore recommends CPALL, which benefits from increased domestic purchasing power amid falling oil prices, DOHOME, whose second-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to grow strongly from higher gross margins, and THAI, which gains from lower jet fuel costs and whose share price still lags the tourism sector. The research team also provides additional advice for international portfolio allocation, suggesting speculation in DR: ZIJIN80 and DR: COHR23.

Land and Houses Securities recommends buying shares of CPALL and GLOBAL, providing resistance, support, and stop-loss levels along with earnings estimates and target prices. For CPALL, resistance is at 50.25 baht, support at 47.50 baht, and stop-loss at 46 baht. Net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is forecast at 7.3 billion baht, up 8 percent from a year earlier but down 20 percent from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors and higher costs, particularly in the CPAXT segment. Same-store sales at 7-Eleven, Makro, and Lotus continue to grow, but there is pressure from labour costs and new store opening expenses. The strategic target price is 62 baht. For GLOBAL, resistance is at 8.30 baht, support at 7.50 baht, and stop-loss at 7.15 baht. Net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is 955 million baht, up 19 percent from the previous quarter and 84 percent from a year earlier, beating expectations by 40 percent. This was driven by a gross margin increase to 31.6 percent, thanks to a product mix shift towards house brands and home improvement categories, as well as improved procurement and logistics efficiency. The strategic target price is 8 baht.

Asia Plus Securities forecasts that the global and Thai economies will decelerate towards the end of 2026, with US and China GDP in the fourth quarter falling to 2.0% and 4.6% respectively, while Thai GDP will slow from 2.8% in the first quarter to just 0.9% in the final quarter, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict pressuring oil prices and raising costs. Investors should therefore closely monitor Thai economic figures in August, including inflation on August 6, which the market expects at plus 2.6% year-on-year, second-quarter GDP on August 17, and the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, where the policy rate is expected to be held at 1.00%. Asia Plus recommends positioning portfolios cautiously and investing selectively in stocks with specific positive factors, highlighting DOHOME for expected strong second-quarter profit growth and higher gross margins, CPALL for its continued earnings recovery and benefit from government spending, and CENTEL for benefiting from the high season for tourism and a recovery in foreign tourist arrivals.

Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET index to rise and test the 1,680 to 1,700 point level next week, with banking and construction materials sectors leading the market. It recommends top picks CPALL and HMPRO. The SET index recently closed at 1,626.57 points, up 28.46 points or 1.77 percent, with trading value of 61.29 billion baht, rising in line with Asian stock markets on the back of a recovery in technology and chip stocks. This pushed DELTA shares higher and supported the overall index.

CP All Laos Company Limited has opened a new 7-Eleven branch inside the Laos-China Railway Station in Vientiane Capital to serve foreign tourists traveling to Laos during the first five months of 2026, totaling over 2.1 million, an increase of 8 percent from the same period last year and accounting for 47 percent of the full-year target of 4.46 million. The opening is part of the 7-Eleven network in Laos, which currently has 33 branches located in key strategic areas such as community zones, petrol stations, and Laos-China railway stations. Mr. Chairoj Tiwatmanchareon, Senior Deputy Managing Director of CP All Public Company Limited, stated that the business is still growing according to target despite challenges from geopolitical crises, while Laos benefits from becoming a new destination for regional tourists, in line with the policy of transforming the country from land-locked to land-linked.

Krungsri Securities recommends buying CPALL with a 2027 target price of 66 baht per share, viewing it as a defensive growth stock whose 7-Eleven convenience store business continues to drive growth through product innovation and margin expansion. The research team forecasts normalized profit for 2026 and 2027 at 30.5 billion baht and 32.7 billion baht, growing 8% and 7% respectively. The current share price trades at a one-year forward PER of just 13.5 times, about one standard deviation below the three-year historical average, representing a discount of roughly 30%, with upside to the target price of approximately 42%. Key drivers include new store openings averaging 700 per year, bringing the store count to 16,645 in 2026 and 17,345 in 2027, along with the development of ready-to-eat, ready-to-drink, beauty, and wellness products. These help lift the convenience store business gross margin from 29.0% in 2024 to 29.6% in the first quarter of 2026, with further expansion of around 20 basis points expected in 2026 to 2027, pushing CPALL's overall gross margin from 22.7% in 2025 to 23.2% in 2027. For the second quarter of 2026, the research team forecasts normalized profit of 7.2 billion baht, up 3% year-on-year but down 19% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, with the 7-Eleven business remaining the main growth engine.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its target for the SET Index to 1,710 points by mid-2027, based on an estimated average earnings per share of 100.5 baht and a target PER of 17 times. The research team lifted its 2026 earnings per share estimate by 3 percent to 99 baht, and its 2027 estimate to 102 baht, reflecting growth of 13 percent and 4 percent from the prior year, respectively. It also sees the Thai economy recovering steadily and foreign capital flows having a chance to return to the Thai stock market, as foreign investors' holdings of Thai equities remain below past peaks. Recommended top picks include BA, BBL, BDMS, CPALL, CPF, CPN, ERW, GULF, SAPPE, STA, and TIDLOR.

US stocks closed sharply lower overnight, with the Dow falling 507 points or 0.97% and the Nasdaq dropping 2%, after Brent crude oil prices surged 7% following attacks by Yemen's Houthi group on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, stoking inflation fears. Tech stocks fell heavily, with Google down 7% and Meta down 3.4%, while defensive plays like Eli Lilly gained 1.97% and Johnson & Johnson added 1.4%. Meanwhile, the US announced tariff hikes on imports from 60 countries including Thailand at rates of 10% to 12.5% under Section 301, citing failure to curb forced labor, a factor pressuring Thai export stocks such as ITC and Thai Union, though a weaker baht provided some support. Pi Securities estimates the SET index range today at 1,620 to 1,650 points and recommends defensive stocks like Advanced Info Service, Bangkok Chain Hospital, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, CP All, and Central Pattana, as well as energy and petrochemical plays such as PTT, PTT Exploration and Production, PTT Global Chemical, and Thai Oil.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, has unveiled an investment strategy to cope with volatility from the Middle East conflict, the trade war, and the technology war, recommending two main themes. The first theme consists of stocks expected to deliver profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, including IVL, PTTGC, BCP, TRUE, SCGP, DOHOME, PTTEP, ADVICE, SC, ADVANC, PTT, and MASTER. The second theme covers stocks with growing profits but lagging share prices, namely BCPG, AMATA, DELTA, and CRC. At the same time, ASPS has designated DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL as standout picks due to their safety from wartime conditions and lack of negative impact. The firm also recommends investing in foreign securities depositary receipts such as MICRON01 to capture strong earnings momentum from memory chip demand, and OIL03 to benefit from the US-Iran conflict boosting oil prices. Another noteworthy point is that since April 2026, the earnings per share estimate for the Thai stock market has been revised up by 3.8 percent, the second highest in the world, trailing only the Dow Jones index and bucking the trend of downward revisions in regional markets.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that global financial markets are under pressure from three major wars: the Middle East conflict pushing WTI crude near 90 dollars per barrel, the trade war with the US preparing to raise import tariffs on over 60 countries including Thailand, and the technology war as China launches an AI model with 2.8 trillion parameters. Meanwhile, Alphabet's second quarter 2026 results show revenue of 119 billion dollars and earnings per share surging 294 percent year on year, while Tesla's earnings per share contracted 18 percent year on year as gross margin fell to 16.8 percent. On the Thai stock market, earnings per share estimates were revised up by 3.8 percent, the second highest in the world. The research team therefore recommends an investment strategy in energy, insurance, healthcare, petrochemicals, and retail sectors, highlighting DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL as top picks for the day.

Asia Plus Securities says the stock market is facing pressure from three major wars: the Middle East conflict, the trade war, and the technology war. Its research team scored 20 industry groups on which would survive or benefit. The winning groups, with scores between 0 and +2, are energy, insurance, healthcare, petrochemicals, and retail. Recommended stocks in these groups include TOP, BCP, BLA, TLI, BDMS, BH, PTTGC, IVL, CPALL, and COM7. The standout stocks of the day, chosen from groups with non-negative scores, are DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities say the SET Index has risen over 31.2% from the start of the year to date, supported by foreign fund flows into electronics on the AI theme and better-than-expected domestic fundamentals. But at 1,650 points, the market is starting to face tight valuation constraints, especially for the large-cap stocks that have led the rally, where foreign ownership has exceeded the five-year average. They therefore expect a rotation of funds into laggard stocks where foreign ownership and valuations are below average, while earnings are still growing well. The short-term strategy recommends switching into laggard stocks via two themes. The first is Earnings Play, focusing on stocks with strong expected second-quarter 2026 earnings growth and a robust second half, such as ADVANC, CPN, GULF, PR9, SCGP, and TIDLOR. The second is Foreign Underowned Play, focusing on SET50 stocks where foreign ownership is below the five-year average and earnings momentum is good, such as BEM, CPALL, HMPRO, MTC, OR, TRUE, and TU.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Three brokers expect the Thai stock market to move sideways this afternoon in a range of 1,644 to 1,657 points. Asia Plus says the index has limited downside after the market has already priced in a base-case US tariff of 15–20 percent. It is also watching today's cabinet meeting, which may extend the deadline for appealing state welfare card decisions to 20 September 2026 and prepare assistance for those who do not qualify through the Thai Helps Thai Plus programme at 1,000 baht per month from August to September 2026, a slight positive for grassroots retail stocks such as CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, and CRC. ASL views the morning session as edging higher on buying in large-cap stocks and the parts sector after South Korea reported a 52.3 percent rise in exports, but selling in banking stocks weighed after second-quarter earnings reports. Globlex says the index is consolidating above all EMA lines, supported by buying in energy, construction materials, and ICT, but has yet to break resistance at 1,655 points due to a lack of new catalysts. The index closed the morning session at 1,651.45 points, up 5.45 points or 0.33 percent, with turnover of 53.53 billion baht.

Brokers are advising investors to gradually accumulate stocks in the meat and beverage sectors before the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon become pronounced from late this year into early next year. This follows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official declaration on June 11, 2026, that the world has entered El Niño conditions, with a 63% chance it will intensify into a super El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027. This could bring hotter and drier weather than usual to Thailand. Historically, during super El Niño periods, Thailand's average annual rainfall dropped to about 1,446 millimeters, roughly 9.4% below the 40-year long-term average of 1,596 millimeters, while maximum temperatures reached around 41 degrees Celsius, about 2 degrees above normal. In the meat sector, particularly pork, prices are likely to benefit from upward pressure as heat stress slows pig growth and raises disease risk, reducing market supply. Data from 2004 to 2023 shows pork prices rose an average of about 17% during El Niño periods, compared to an average increase of around 12% for chicken. Meanwhile, the beverage and convenience store sectors are expected to be supported by higher beverage consumption during hot weather. Brokers therefore recommend meat stocks such as BTG, TFG, and CPF, and beverage stocks including ICHI, CBG, and OSP, as well as convenience store operator CPALL.

CPALL maintains its growth targets for 2026, aiming for same-store sales growth close to GDP at 1.5 percent, while pressing ahead with the expansion of 7-Eleven by another 700 branches in Thailand. The company has allocated a capital expenditure budget of 12 to 13.6 billion baht for new store openings, store renovations, distribution centers, and IT systems. Additionally, the company targets expanding its gross profit margin by 10 to 20 basis points per year through increasing the proportion of high-margin products, and it is likely to pay dividends above its policy, following last year's payout of 59 percent of net profit, or 1.65 baht per share. On the financial management front, the company issued a new bond series CPALL266A with a tenor of 5 years and 10 months and an interest rate of 2.53 percent to refinance existing bonds, expecting to save approximately 87 million baht in interest per year. Its net debt to equity stands at only 0.76 times, well below the financial covenant of 2.0 times, and it also has a policy to reduce debt by 3 to 5 billion baht annually. Meanwhile, CPALL's retail business continues to operate as usual and is unaffected by the virtual bank, after the shareholders' meeting resolved not to approve the transfer of subsidiary businesses into that venture.