Tesla IncCitizens initiates with Market Perform, warns near-term optimism too high, revenue estimates below consensus, and high valuation multiple.

Citizens began coverage of Tesla with a Market Perform rating, warning that valuation expectations for the company's Optimus robot and Robotaxi products imply too near a launch timeline. Analyst Andrew Boone said the firm is launching coverage because of the potential of physical AI, comparing the opportunity to how AI is currently accelerating knowledge work. While Tesla has leading autonomy models, its own silicon, advanced manufacturing, state-of-the-art batteries, and CEO Elon Musk's engineering prowess, Citizens said the grand vision will take time to achieve and expects Optimus to face a new level of production complexity with delays and greater spending. On Robotaxis, the firm doubts Tesla's camera-only autonomous vehicle system can be as effective as systems using LiDAR, radar, and cameras, and expects significantly more incidents than current leading autonomous driving systems, which could create liability issues or pause service. Citizens' 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates are 4% and 12% below consensus, respectively, and it noted that Tesla's closing price of $394.06 on Wednesday implies a trading multiple of 70.2 times and 10.8 times its 2028 estimated EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue, a premium to auto and energy peers that the firm said is warranted given Tesla's optionality.
Tesla IncCitizens initiates with Market Perform, warns near-term optimism too high, revenue estimates below consensus, and high valuation multiple.