CME Sues CFTC Over Perpetual Futures as $93 Trillion Market Looms

RegulationDigital FinanceAnalyst
โดย TheStreet·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

CME Group sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on June 18 to classify perpetual futures as swaps rather than futures, after the CFTC accepted KalshiEX's bitcoin perpetual contract as a futures contract on May 29. Bank of America estimates crypto perpetual trading will reach over $93 trillion in 2025, almost five times the size of the underlying crypto spot market, with CoinGecko putting combined centralized and decentralized perpetual volume at roughly $92.9 trillion. Bank of America rates CME Underperform with a $230 price target, but argues the exchange could benefit whether it wins, loses, or merely slows the regulatory process, since a win would impose swap-dealer registration and stricter margin standards on perps while a loss would leave CME's exclusive futures license agreements for the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Russell 2000 protecting its index franchise. The bank names Intercontinental Exchange its top exchange pick with a Buy rating and $232 price target, citing its institutional client base and March investment in crypto platform OKX at a $25 billion valuation, and rates Cboe Neutral with a $354 price target after the stock fell about 30% between May 15 and June 30.

Impact on stocks 4

Carbon Removal (DAC) · 2 stocks
CME Group Inc
CME
± MixedRegulationCapitalrelevance

CME sued the CFTC to classify perpetual futures as swaps rather than futures, a regulatory/legal battle over its futures franchise.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc
ICE
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Named Bank of America's top exchange pick with a Buy rating and $232 price target, citing its institutional client base and March investment in OKX.

Financials · 2 stocks
Cboe Global Markets Inc
CBOE
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Rated Neutral with a $354 price target after the stock fell ~30% between May 15 and June 30; no company-specific driver given.

Theme Impact 2

Off-coverage companies 3

CoinGeckoPrivate± Mixed
relevance

KalshiPrivate± Mixed
relevance

OKXPrivate± Mixed
relevance

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