Cobalt Supply Disruptions Pose Outsized Risk to Global EV Industry

CommodityIndustry Impact 4
โดย Oilprice.com·Read original
Summary · why it matters

A new study finds that the global cobalt supply chain is far more vulnerable to targeted disruptions than previously thought, posing an outsized risk to the roughly 45% of electric vehicles that still rely on traditional cobalt-based battery chemistries. The research, conducted by the Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences, reveals that the cobalt network exhibits a "robust-yet-fragile" structure, where a single shock at a critical node can cascade through the system and create a web of potential failures about four times larger than the physical trade network itself. The Democratic Republic of the Congo supplies 70% to 75% of the world's raw cobalt, while China controls the overwhelming majority of chemical refining and battery material manufacturing, giving both countries the ability to trigger massive global disruptions through policy changes or supply bottlenecks. The study warns that traditional trade metrics severely underestimate these risks by overlooking secondary and tertiary supply relationships, leaving countries with high dependencies like South Africa, Indonesia, and Mexico highly exposed to random shocks.

Impact on stocks 2

Electrification & Mobility▼ · 1 stocks
Tesla Inc
TSLA
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Tesla relies on cobalt-based batteries for some models; supply disruptions raise costs and risk.

Others▲ · 1 stocks
BYD Co Ltd Class A
002594
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

BYD uses LFP batteries (no cobalt), so it benefits from cobalt supply issues that hurt competitors.

Theme Impact 7

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