Yuanta raises 2026-2027 Dubai oil price targets to 90 and 75 dollars, picks BANPU as top stock

AnalystCommodityGeopolitics
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Summary · why it matters

Yuanta Securities raised its Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2026-2027 to 90 dollars per barrel from 85 dollars per barrel, and to 75 dollars per barrel from 70 dollars per barrel, respectively, after Middle East tensions dragged on longer than previously expected, with the situation having been expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026. Instead, tensions re-escalated from early September after the United States and Iran resumed attacks on each other following a ceasefire that had held since July, and the conflict also spread to Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, which attacked refineries and the East-West Pipeline that carries roughly 4-5 million barrels per day, or 4-5% of global supply. Saudi Arabia said it could restore partial operation of about 50% within the next few days, but a full return to capacity may take around six weeks. The research team raised its 2026-2027 net profit forecasts for PTTEP by 5-12% to 77 billion baht and 72 billion baht, respectively. It maintained its investment weighting for the energy sector at "equal to market" and sees upstream energy stocks PTT, PTTEP and BANPU as the main choices for investment at this time, with BANPU as the top pick with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 19.00 baht, driven by its gas business in the United States, which is supported by the data center industry, and its coal business, which benefits from demand substituting for LNG in a region strained by war. Meanwhile, risk-averse investors can invest in PTT with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 45.00 baht, based on its integrated business with lower volatility and consistently high dividend payouts.

Impact on stocks 3

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 2 stocks
Banpu Public Company Limited
BANPU
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Yuanta names BANPU top pick with buy rating and 19.00 baht fair value, citing US gas demand from data centers and coal demand substituting for LNG in the war-strained region.

PTT Public Company Limited
PTT
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Yuanta lists PTT among main upstream energy investment choices with a buy rating and 45.00 baht fair value on lower volatility and high dividends.

Energy▲ · 1 stocks

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