Eli Lilly's 60% obesity drug market share explains its stock surge over Novo Nordisk

Amgen's updated analyst model lifted its fair value price target to US$388.03 from a prior US$371.93, with the revenue growth assumption rising to 3.50% from 2.93%, the net profit margin assumption moving to 25.15% from 24.84%, the future P/E multiple changing to 25.1x from 24.6x, and the discount rate shifting to 7.96% from 7.70%. The revision reflects a split analyst view, with UBS, Argus, TD Cowen, Scotiabank and Oppenheimer raising their Amgen price targets into a US$420 to US$460 range on the strength of a strong product portfolio, Q2 beats and higher guidance. Wells Fargo and Piper Sandler lifted their targets to US$435, citing external survey work and prescription data they believe support higher long term sales potential for cholesterol and cardiovascular products such as Repatha and Lipfendra. On the bearish side, HSBC downgraded Amgen to Hold and cut its target to US$425 from US$445, saying the stock price now more closely matches its assessment of fair value with limited near term upside, while BMO Capital shifted to a neutral Market Perform stance even with a higher US$450 target, citing ongoing loss of exclusivity headwinds and a need for more clarity on the competitive profile and sales potential of MariTide.

Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar is resetting the drugmaker's culture and competitive focus under a new "Novo Way" emphasizing customer focus, competitiveness, clarity and care, as the company rebrands to the day-to-day name "Novo" after losing ground to Eli Lilly in obesity drugs. Novo pioneered the modern obesity-drug market with Wegovy in the U.S. in 2021, but Eli Lilly has since gained ground with Zepbound and more aggressive consumer-focused commercialization. Novo has moved into oral obesity treatment with its Wegovy pill, and expects oral drugs to account for more than one-third of GLP-1 obesity-treatment use by 2030; analysts expect the U.S. obesity-treatment market to exceed $100 billion annually by 2030. Novo's Wegovy pill had captured roughly 90% of the U.S. oral-obesity market as of August, although Lilly subsequently said its Foundayo treatment had already captured more than 30% of new U.S. oral-treatment patients. Doustdar's message is that Novo must operate differently to defend and expand its position, and the company's September 21 capital-markets day should show investors how the "Novo Way" will translate into stronger competitive performance.