Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity

Berenberg upgraded Eli Lilly to buy from hold, with analyst Kerry Holford arguing the stock's roughly 300% rally since its first GLP-1 approval is only the beginning. Holford, the bank's head of global pharmaceutical equity research, set a new price target of $1,400, implying a 21% increase from Thursday's close, and said Lilly offers sales growth through 2030 significantly ahead of peers on solid growth from marketed assets and a significant pipeline contribution. Lilly trades at about 26 times forward earnings, above peers in the S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals Index and five of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks. She pointed to the pending approval of Foundayo, Lilly's GLP-1 pill for diabetes, as likely to unlock significant demand, and said the success of Zepbound and Mounjaro has let Lilly invest heavily beyond obesity, with roughly $60 billion committed to more than 25 business development deals year-to-date, including Centessa Pharmaceuticals for as much as $7.8 billion, Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion and AtaiBeckley for $3.8 billion. Holford said this non-obesity pipeline is underappreciated by investors.

On September 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and eight other ministries jointly released the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Pharmaceutical Industry, proposing that by 2030, biopharmaceutical R&D and application will rank among the world's leaders, and the biopharmaceutical industry will accelerate its rise as a national emerging pillar industry. The plan sets 10 expected indicators covering industrial scale and efficiency, innovative development, enterprise cultivation, and cluster development, including operating revenue of pharmaceutical industrial enterprises above designated size exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan, an average annual growth rate of the innovative drug industry scale exceeding 20 percent, more than 5 products with global annual sales exceeding 1 billion US dollars, first-in-class innovative drugs accounting for more than 25 percent of the global total, more than 200 innovative medical devices launched, 50 pharmaceutical industrial enterprises with annual operating revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan, and 20 pharmaceutical industrial parks at the 100-billion-yuan level. Boosted by this news, the three major stock indices all rose more than 1 percent in early trading that day. Huatian Technology hit the daily limit up, with turnover of 6.065 billion yuan, nearly 1.47 million lots of sealed buy orders on the limit-up board, and nearly 3.3 billion yuan of main capital rushing in, ranking first in the A-share market. Zhou Sicong, fund manager of Ping An Pharmaceutical Select, believes innovative drugs are likely to become an important growth theme, and CITIC Securities said China's innovative drugs have entered a stage of global value realization. According to statistics from Securities Times Data Treasure, since September, Chengdu Leading Pharmaceutical, Asymchem Laboratories, Porton Pharma Solutions, and Hunan Warrant Pharmaceutical have led gains, all rising more than 10 percent, with Chengdu Leading Pharmaceutical up a cumulative 16.87 percent.

Corbus Pharmaceuticals announced positive results from its phase Ib CANYON-1 study of CRB-913, an oral cannabinoid-based small molecule for obesity, with once-daily treatment achieving statistically significant and clinically meaningful weight loss across all three dose levels at 12 weeks. The 20-mg and 40-mg doses delivered placebo-adjusted mean weight loss of 2.8% and 3.3%, respectively, while the 60-mg dose achieved 5%, with no evidence of a weight-loss plateau at any dose. Corbus said treatment discontinuations due to adverse events were lower than those reported for approved oral GLP-1 drugs such as Eli Lilly's Foundayo and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill, and that preclinical studies showed CRB-913 was 15 times more peripherally restricted than Novo Nordisk's monlunabant, which Novo discontinued in the second quarter of 2026. Detailed CANYON-1 results are expected at ObesityWeek 2026 in November, and Corbus intends to engage with the FDA on a clinical plan to advance CRB-913 to phase II development. Beyond the obesity candidate, Corbus has an oncology program in CRB-701, a Nectin-4-targeting antibody-drug conjugate that the FDA has cleared for the registrational phase III TEMPO-1 study in second-line oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, with enrollment expected to start later this month. Corbus had about $118 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments as of June 30, 2026, which it expects to support operations into 2028.

Orbis Medicines has entered a strategic collaboration and license agreement with Novo Nordisk to discover and develop next-generation oral macrocycle therapeutics for cardiometabolic diseases. Under the terms, Orbis Medicines is eligible to receive up to USD 1.4 billion in upfront and potential development and commercial milestone payments, plus tiered royalties on future product sales, and Novo will also make a strategic investment in Orbis Medicines. The collaboration will use Orbis Medicines' proprietary nGen platform, which integrates generative AI with high-throughput synthesis to design orally bioavailable macrocycles called nCycles. Morten Graugaard, chief executive officer of Orbis Medicines, said the partnership could unlock a new generation of oral medicines for cardiometabolic diseases, while Brian Vandahl, senior vice president of Therapeutics Discovery at Novo, said the collaboration could expand the possibilities of macrocycle therapeutics. Orbis Medicines, based in Copenhagen, Denmark and Lausanne, Switzerland, has raised EUR 116 million in venture funding to date, including a EUR 90 million Series A round led by NEA.

Asia Plus Securities said in an analysis that Novo Nordisk A/S is advancing its collaboration with Anthropic to apply artificial intelligence, or AI, in its research and development processes, including the discovery and development of new drugs. It plans to use Claude Science and Agentic AI technology to improve data analysis efficiency, shorten research timelines, and accelerate the process of bringing products to market. The collaboration reflects Novo Nordisk's strategy to elevate the organization into a more AI-driven healthcare company, alongside its emphasis on data governance and human oversight. The research team holds a positive view of this collaboration, assessing that it will help raise R&D efficiency and improve the quality of drug products in development, which is a key factor amid intensifying competition in the obesity and diabetes drug market, especially competition with Eli Lilly. However, the research team assesses that the positive effect on the share price in the short term remains limited, since the project is still in its early stages and the impact on revenue and profit cannot yet be clearly evaluated. As for Novo Nordisk shares, or NOVOB DC, they recently stood at 272.60 Danish kroner, while the Depositary Receipt, or NOVOB80, stood at 1.42 baht, using a reference exchange rate of 5.12 baht per Danish krone and a conversion ratio of 1 underlying share per 1,000 DR units. The research team gives a buy recommendation, with a one-year target price for NOVOB DC of 315.89 Danish kroner, equivalent to a target price for NOVOB80 of 1.62 baht. On the technical view for NOVOB80, the price is expected to move sideways, with support at 1.30-1.34 baht and resistance at 1.50-1.58 baht.

Bayer announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved KERENDIA, also known as finerenone, to reduce urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio in adults with chronic kidney disease associated with type 1 diabetes, making it the first new treatment approved for this population in more than 30 years. The approval followed the agency's Priority Review of a supplemental New Drug Application and was supported by data from the Phase III FINE-ONE trial, which enrolled 242 adults and showed KERENDIA significantly reduced UACR versus placebo over six months, with reductions of 22% at Month 3 and 28% at Month 6. KERENDIA, a once-daily oral non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, is the only MRA indicated for adults with chronic kidney disease associated with either type 2 or type 1 diabetes. Approximately 20-30% of people in the U.S. with type 1 diabetes also have chronic kidney disease. Detailed FINE-ONE results were presented at the American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week 2025 and published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Corcept Therapeutics raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.10-$1.20 billion from an earlier expectation of $950 million to $1.05 billion, reflecting growing momentum in its lead marketed drug Korlym and other business activities. Korlym, approved for the treatment of Cushing's syndrome, recorded sales of $373.5 million in the first six months of 2026, up 6.2% year over year, and remains the majority driver of the company's top line. The company is working to diversify beyond Korlym, and in March 2026 the FDA approved Lifyorli, or relacorilant, in combination with nab-paclitaxel for adults with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer; Lifyorli generated $47.6 million in the second quarter of 2026, its first quarter of commercial availability. Corcept resubmitted its new drug application for relacorilant in hypercortisolism in June 2026, and the FDA accepted the application with a target action date of Dec. 17, 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share has risen from 58 cents to $2.02 over the past 60 days, while the 2027 estimate has increased from $2.27 to $3.44.

JP Morgan says AstraZeneca offers the richest run of drug news in the pharmaceuticals sector over the next 18 months, a wave of trial results it sees as key to the company's growth well into the next decade. The broker, which rates the FTSE 100 group overweight, reiterated a price target of £160. At the centre of the case is a packed calendar of late-stage readouts, including Datroway in previously untreated lung cancer, with results from one study due in the final quarter of 2026 and another in 2027, alongside the breast cancer drug camizestrant. JP Morgan also points to a string of further data in 2027 that it believes could drive a rerating of the shares, spanning laroprovstat, an oral cholesterol-lowering treatment, combination studies for the diabetes drug Farxiga, Datroway in earlier stages of triple-negative breast cancer, puxitatug samrotecan in advanced endometrial cancer and saruparib in prostate cancer. Taken together, JP Morgan reckons these programmes could offer more than US$10 billion in risk-adjusted peak sales, which it argues should bolster confidence in AstraZeneca's ability to keep growing after 2030, a period some investors worry about as older medicines lose patent protection. The broker views the current share price as an attractive entry point into what it calls a strong mid-term growth story, adding that successful readouts next year carry significant potential for upgrades to the company's long-term outlook.

Eli Lilly and Company says its newly launched oral obesity drug Foundayo has captured more than 30% of new U.S. patients starting oral weight-loss medicines, a notable early gain against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill. Reuters reports that Wegovy initially held roughly 90% of the oral market, making Lilly's rapid share capture an important sign that the oral GLP-1 market is becoming a two-player competition rather than a Novo-dominated segment. The broader U.S. obesity-drug market is expected to exceed $100 billion annually by 2030, with oral treatments potentially accounting for more than one-third of GLP-1 use. Foundayo was only launched in the U.S. in April 2026, starting at $149 per month for self-pay patients and as little as $25 for eligible commercially insured patients, while Medicare beneficiaries can access it through the GLP-1 Bridge program at $50 per month. Lilly's SEC filing says Mounjaro and Zepbound already represented 65% of its revenue in the first six months of 2026, highlighting both the importance of the incretin franchise and the opportunity for Foundayo to broaden Lilly's cardiometabolic revenue base.

Eli Lilly reported second quarter revenue of $22.97 billion, up 47.7% year over year, while Merck posted $16.6 billion, up 5%, according to results from both drugmakers. Lilly's growth was driven by Mounjaro at $9.94 billion, up 91%, and Zepbound at $4.93 billion, up 46%, and the company raised its full-year guidance to $85 to $87 billion with an 85.8% gross margin. Merck's KEYTRUDA family brought in $8.4 billion, growing just 4%, and management said U.S. KEYTRUDA growth will moderate as the drug reaches peak penetration, while a $5.7 billion Terns acquisition charge pushed the company to a reported loss. Lilly's pipeline advanced with retatrutide showing weight loss approaching bariatric surgery levels in Phase 3, orforglipron, branded Foundeo, becoming the first once-daily oral GLP-1 with prescriber counts jumping from roughly 8,000 to 36,000 in one quarter, and FDA clearance of Mounjaro for cardiovascular risk reduction in type 2 diabetes on August 28. Merck is leaning on new launches including Lipvendra, the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor, and WINREVAIR, which grew 75% to $588 million, though GARDASIL China stayed weak and three Phase 3 oncology trials missed. Lilly trades at a forward P/E of 24 versus Merck at 15 with a 2.29% yield.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have paid more than 270,000 doctors since 2018 to promote GLP-1 weight-loss drugs through medical boards, research, educational seminars and direct outreach to fellow physicians, according to research by the Washington Post. One of those doctors, family physician Dr. Carlos Campos, has received $1 million from drug companies for his GLP-1 promotional work, traveling across the U.S. from his practice in New Braunfels, Texas. Novo Nordisk told Moneywise it follows the highest ethical standards and all legal and regulatory requirements in sharing scientific information with healthcare professionals. Critics such as Georgetown University Medical Center's Dr. Adriane Fugh-Berman warn that industry-sponsored continuing medical education courses, which are free to physicians and often led by paid physician-educators, spread drug company marketing messages throughout the profession. A recent Gallup poll found 90% of Americans are aware of GLP-1s and 11% of U.S. adults have prescriptions for weight loss, up from 3% two years ago, while an estimated 30 million Americans will be on GLP-1s by 2030 and the global market could be worth $200 billion.

IP Group reported a 3.2% rise in net asset value per share to 114p in the first half, taking total NAV above £1 billion, with Chief Executive Greg Smith saying NAV per share had since reached approximately 117p as of Sept. 11, mainly on a higher valuation of its listed Oxford Nanopore holding. The science and technology investor generated £69 million of cash proceeds in the half, exceeding the proceeds recorded for the whole of 2025, and a further £17 million received after the period end brought year-to-date proceeds to about £86 million and total proceeds since the start of 2025 to £154 million, against a target of £250 million of realizations by the end of 2027. The largest contributor to the half-year valuation gain was IP Group's royalty interest in Pfizer's obesity treatment programs, whose carrying value rose by £27 million to just over £150 million after Pfizer's berobenatide and amylin combination advanced into a Phase IIb clinical trial, lifting the estimated probability for the combination therapy from 25% to 39%. Portfolio companies raised more than £500 million from third-party investors during the half, with IP Group contributing approximately 5% of that capital, and Oxford Nanopore reported £117 million of revenue, 12% constant-currency growth, a 400-basis-point gross margin improvement to 62%, and an adjusted EBITDA loss that more than halved to just over £22 million. The company ended June with £239 million to £240 million of gross cash and deposits, and Smith said around £50 million of realization proceeds was available for future shareholder returns under the board-approved capital allocation policy.

Eli Lilly and Company will present new data across its cardiometabolic health portfolio at the 62nd Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes, taking place September 28 to October 2, 2026 in Milan, Italy. Pivotal results from the TRIUMPH-2 trial showed retatrutide, an investigational triple hormone receptor agonist, delivered substantial weight loss and A1C improvements in obesity and type 2 diabetes, with adults losing up to an average of 49.6 lbs (22.5 kg; 20.8%) and lowering their A1C by up to an average of 1.6% at 80 weeks. Findings from ACHIEVE-4, the largest and longest study of Foundayo in type 2 diabetes, reaffirmed its safety profile and suggested the potential to provide cardiovascular benefits, demonstrating non-inferiority versus insulin glargine with a 16% lower risk of MACE-4 events and a 23% lower risk of MACE-3 events. Lilly will also unveil Phase 2 data for eloraTZP, its latest triple-acting medicine combining the selective amylin receptor agonist eloralintide and GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist tirzepatide, after Phase 1 results showed adding eloralintide 3 mg to tirzepatide 5 mg led to 17% weight loss over 16 weeks versus 10% with tirzepatide 5 mg alone. The company will additionally host an industry symposium on September 28 chaired by Prof. Rachel Batterham, marking 150 years of Lilly innovation.

Novo Nordisk has received approval in China for Wegovy to treat metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, or MASH, making it the first GLP-1 receptor agonist approved in the country for the liver disease. The approval expands Wegovy's potential beyond weight management and cardiovascular benefits into another major condition linked to obesity, and Reuters noted that Novo sees the decision as further evidence of the drug's broader role in treating complications associated with obesity. The move gives Novo an early advantage in China's MASH market while competitors work on developing or securing approval for similar treatments, and it supports the case for Wegovy as a broader metabolic-health treatment rather than simply a weight-loss drug. Still, the financial impact may take time to show: the Wall Street Journal reported that Novo's GLP-1 sales in China declined 8% in 2025 amid intense competition, and nearly 250 Chinese GLP-1 treatments are reportedly in development, with lower operating costs and limited insurance coverage adding pressure on pricing. Novo has also faced setbacks elsewhere, including the termination of two additional cardiovascular trials for ziltivekimab, making Wegovy and related products even more important to its future growth.

Citi analyst Geoff Meacham raised his price target on Eli Lilly to a Street-high $1,600 from $1,500 with a Buy rating, implying roughly 45% upside from the stock's recent close of $1,114.90, even as shares fell 8.44% over the past month against an S&P 500 decline of just 1.06%. The pullback followed a roughly 9% drop in realized U.S. prices excluding rebate adjustments and $2.78 billion of acquired IPR&D charges from deals including Orna, Kelonia, Ajax and Centessa, though Q2 revenue still grew 48% year over year and Lilly raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $85 to $87 billion. The bull case rests on Mounjaro and Zepbound holding about 6 of 10 total U.S. obesity prescriptions and 7 of 10 injectable ones, oral GLP-1 Foundeo expanding from 8,000 to 36,000 prescribers in a single quarter ahead of a 2027 global rollout, and triple-agonist retatrutide showing bariatric-surgery-level weight loss in TRIUMPH-1 with a BLA submission planned for Q1 2027. Analyst coverage splits into 6 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell and 1 Strong Sell, with fiscal 2027 EPS estimates rising to $47.26 from $44.49 ninety days ago. Among pharma peers, Novo Nordisk's consensus target of $47.23 implies just under 10% upside and Merck's $152.96 target implies about 6%, leaving Lilly the clear outlier on analyst-implied returns.

Novo Nordisk's late-stage STEP Young trial found that 40.4% of children treated with semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy, were no longer classified as having obesity after 68 weeks, compared with none receiving placebo. The trial met its primary endpoint, with semaglutide demonstrating a superior reduction in body mass index at week 68 versus placebo, though all participants also received lifestyle modifications including a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. The result could expand the addressable market for Wegovy, as GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are not currently approved for children under 12 in the U.S., and a study published September 4 in the Pediatrics journal found that GLP-1 prescribing among children ages 8 to 11 with obesity and without diabetes increased roughly 310-fold from 2019 to 2026. The timing is significant as Novo seeks new growth drivers against Eli Lilly; in the REDEFINE 4 trial, Novo's next-generation candidate CagriSema produced 23.0% weight loss after 84 weeks versus 25.5% with Lilly's tirzepatide and failed the primary endpoint of non-inferiority. Hedge funds holding Novo Nordisk increased to 59 in Q2 from 55 in Q1, though positioning was mixed, and short interest rose around 15% to 33.83 million shares as of August 14.