Fed in focus tonight: Warsh press conference risks disappointing markets, boosting Bitcoin and gold

MacroDigital FinanceDigital Finance Impact 4
โดย Coindesk·US·Read original
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Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting is being watched as potentially a major challenge for Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair, with the central bank due to announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time and Warsh holding a press conference 30 minutes later. Ahead of the announcement, Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization, was trading at 75,800 dollars, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, while tokens such as JUP, XLM and ICP each fell about 10%. Financial markets have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, which would lift the policy rate target range to 3.75%-4%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, and nearly every major investment bank expects at least one more rate increase before the end of the year, according to information shared by Nick Timiraos, a reporter at the Wall Street Journal. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said the main issue is not today's expected rate hike but the additional tightening expected later this year, warning that the press conference is likely to disappoint markets, with the dollar likely to fall and long-term bond yields likely to surge. A weaker dollar typically supports dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and gold. Meanwhile, a scenario analysis by JPMorgan shared by Barchart indicated that if the Fed raises rates without giving a clear hawkish forward policy path, investors may anticipate more aggressive tightening in the months ahead, possibly through 50 basis point hikes at a time. And although rising bond yields are traditionally a bearish signal for assets that generate no income, the driver in this case is inflation signals rather than a bright economic growth outlook, with the 10-year Treasury yield already hovering near 5%, up about 80 basis points this year, a rise driven largely by concerns over soaring U.S. debt. That could ultimately benefit gold and Bitcoin after an initial risk-averse reaction.

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