Fidelity Strategist Calls AI Trade 'Dead Money' as $3.3 Trillion Buildout Draws Doubts

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Fidelity Investments Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said Tuesday that the artificial intelligence trade has been "dead money" for more than three months, even as hyperscalers keep pouring hundreds of billions into the technology's buildout. In a post on X, Timmer said token expenditures and GPU lease rates are "all flat to down," while the price of memory appears to be the only thing still going up. Fidelity data show the Silicon Data LLM token expenditure index down 49% on a 50-day basis, and GPU rental rates for both H100 and A100 chips have cooled sharply after peaking earlier this year at gains of 56% and 16%, respectively. Timmer said the buildout "is inflationary with an unknown return for the companies who are investing trillions into compute," adding that corporate demand for capital, both debt and equity, is climbing at "a $3.3 trillion clip." U.S. hyperscalers are on pace to spend roughly $916 billion on capital expenditures over the next 12 months, with combined capex from Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Oracle Corp., and Space Exploration Technologies Inc. expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2027. Despite the near-term stall, Timmer said he still believes AI "will change our lives" and could eventually "unleash a productivity miracle that raises the economy's non-inflationary speed limit."

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