Forecasters Say El Niño Is Developing; Homeowners Urged to Prepare

Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy, warns that erratic weather and the fallout from the Iran war could heighten food security risks in Asia and may lead to social unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. In a report published on 17 September, it said the Iran war has affected the supply of fuel and fertiliser, key inputs for the agricultural sector, while extreme weather from a strong El Niño is also hitting farm output in several Asian countries. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, is battling hard-to-control wildfires that are disrupting harvests, while India, the world's largest rice exporter, has seen monsoon rainfall 15% below normal. Thailand, meanwhile, is likely to see a sharp drop in sugar output and remains heavily dependent on energy and fertiliser imports, while facing pressure from farmers' debt burdens ahead of the next planting season. Data from Verisk Maplecroft's food security index shows that more than half of the countries at high or critical risk on food security are also in the two highest-risk groups on its civil unrest forecast index, including India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia. Protests have already broken out in the Philippines and Indonesia in recent weeks, and Verisk Maplecroft warns that if pressure from food prices and supplies intensifies and governments are seen as responding ineffectively, it could lead to unrest and political instability in these high-risk countries. In countries already facing conflict, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, a food shock could increase the risk of a humanitarian crisis.