Climate Risk Analytics & Insurance

A new Capgemini Research Institute report finds that 68% of executives now say their organization actively prioritizes climate adaptation, up from 56% in 2025, yet only 15% have fully quantified the financial impact of climate-related disruptions. The fifth edition of A World in Balance: The resilience reset, based on a survey of 2,100 executives at 701 organizations with more than $1 billion in annual revenue across 13 countries, also shows the share of organizations falling behind on net zero goals rising to 11% in 2026 from 1% in 2025, with 29% saying they have postponed their net zero objectives, compared with just 8% last year. Nearly nine in 10 organizations report climate-related supply-chain disruptions, and more than seven in 10 executives say securing access to critical resources such as energy, water and materials now influences sustainability decisions more than emissions-reduction targets. Sustainability spending reached 1.04% of revenue last year, above the 0.8% initially allocated, and 83% of organizations plan to increase climate adaptation spending over the next 12 to 18 months. Cyril Garcia, Global head of Sustainability services and Corporate Responsibility at Capgemini, said climate disruptions have become the new normal and that leaders can no longer defer climate action.

The Cabinet has approved the establishment of a national disaster insurance system, as proposed by the Ministry of Interior through the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, to shift disaster management from post-event relief toward advance risk management and transfer through an insurance system. Operations will begin on October 1. Ekkaphop Pienpiset, spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, said the system allows the state to determine in advance which risks it will retain and which will be distributed or transferred to the insurance system, helping reduce uncertainty in the budget burden and giving the public faster access to compensation. For residential coverage, the scheme will cover approximately 30 million households, based on housing statistics from the Bureau of Registration Administration under the Department of Provincial Administration as of September 10. It covers damage from floods, windstorms, and earthquakes, with maximum coverage of 100,000 baht per household per event. For floods, the initial compensation is 10,000 baht, with additional compensation of up to 90,000 baht per event. For windstorms and earthquakes, the initial compensation is 5,000 baht, with additional compensation of up to 95,000 baht per event. The scheme also provides coverage of 2 million baht per person in the event of death from such disasters. The Cabinet assigned the Bureau of the Budget to allocate budget funds in line with the specified framework and objectives, while the Office of the Insurance Commission, together with the Thai General Insurance Association, will procure insurers that are standard-compliant, stable, reliable, and fair. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation will serve as the budget-receiving unit and disburse funds to insurers in accordance with the prescribed criteria.

Professor Dr. Yodchanan Wongsawat, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, together with Ms. Buntida Somchai, Deputy Minister of Digital Economy and Society, jointly presided over the signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding, or MOU, between four key agencies to accelerate the creation of a One Map for water on 15 September 2026 at Room Naree 2, Naree Samosorn Building, Government House. The collaboration stemmed from a field visit to handle flood situations in Nan Province, which found that early-warning data was still scattered and inconsistent among agencies, causing delays in decision-making. Under this MOU, the Thai Meteorological Department is responsible for issuing official warnings for storms and heavy rain, the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency supports satellite imagery and geoinformatics data, the Hydro-Informatics Institute supports water level and volume data along with 24-48 hour advance assessments of rain watch areas, and the Big Data Institute develops analysis systems and dashboards applying artificial intelligence. All data will be gathered into the National Water Data Warehouse, and the public can now follow the situation through a centralized warning dashboard at the website www.thaiwater.net/new4all.

Today's cabinet meeting (Sept 15) was chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn on behalf of Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is on a trip to the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. The Interior Ministry is seeking approval for a total budget framework of 15 billion baht to buy natural disaster insurance under the national disaster insurance programme, and is proposing three types of policy covering floods, windstorms and earthquakes, for 30 million households, with a one-year coverage period from 1 October 2026 to 1 October 2027, to ease the burden of risk on the state, which spends tens of billions of baht a year on relief for disaster victims. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is seeking approval for a project to improve the irrigation system in the lower Chao Phraya basin and the lower eastern side, with a budget of about 95 billion baht, using loans from the Asian Development Bank, or ADB, together with the national budget. The Transport Ministry, for its part, is proposing to cancel the item for construction of the ministry's new headquarters building, which was tied to the budgets for 2026 to 2028, effectively delaying the construction plan. Attention is also on proposals to appoint and transfer senior officials at several ministries to fill positions left vacant by retirements on 30 September this year.

The Thai General Insurance Association is pressing ahead with a national disaster insurance system after the Cabinet approved the plan, aiming to begin coverage this October. Dr. Somporn Suebthawilkul, Chief Executive Officer of Dhipaya Group Holdings Public Company Limited and President of the Thai General Insurance Association, disclosed that the government will pay the premiums on behalf of the public, covering roughly 30 million households nationwide, amounting to total premiums of 15 billion baht per year, or about 500 baht per household per year, for three types of peril: floods, windstorms and earthquakes. The project targets total coverage of approximately 75 billion baht, or about five times the premiums the government pays, which represents the maximum liability the insurance system must be prepared to absorb rather than the full amount the government pays directly to the public. On the selection of companies to join the project, preliminary assessment indicates that about 25 insurers may qualify out of 47 companies, based on capital adequacy ratios of 180 to 200 percent, and continuous profitability for no less than two years may also be required. Meanwhile, the reinsurance structure is under discussion for Thailand Reinsurance Public Company Limited, or THRE, to take on risk management. In the initial phase, the fund model or the establishment of a national catastrophe insurance company will not yet be used, since that would require many legal steps and could take at least about two years.

The global Saildrone Voyager unmanned surface vehicle (USV) market is projected to grow from $0.95 billion in 2025 to $1.08 billion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate of 13.6%, and reach $1.81 billion by 2030, according to a new report from ResearchAndMarkets.com. Growth is driven by rising demand for climate observation, maritime security, and autonomous ocean monitoring, with North America leading in 2025 and Asia-Pacific expected to be the fastest-growing region. In May 2026, Saildrone Inc. secured a $15.5 million contract with the U.S. Coast Guard to deploy Voyager USVs for long-duration surveillance in the Great Lakes and the U.S. Northeast coast, and in March 2025, Saildrone partnered with Palantir Technologies Inc. to integrate AI analytics for enhanced threat detection. The report profiles key players including Saildrone, Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, and Ocean Infinity, and covers segments by type, deployment mode, application, and end user.

The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance revealed that the national disaster insurance system, which has been approved in principle by the Cabinet, is expected to begin operations in fiscal year 2027. This marks a shift from directly using the central budget for relief, which averaged 30 billion baht per year, to transferring risk into the insurance system. The government will subsidize insurance premiums by approximately 15 billion baht to provide coverage of up to 75 billion baht for about 30 million households. The policy will cover three major natural disasters: floods, storms, and earthquakes, excluding fire due to its low risk. Meanwhile, non-life insurance companies will assume risk based on their size and capacity, and will use reinsurance to spread risk. Satellite technology will also be employed to expedite damage assessment.

The United Nations has warned that the world is entering a danger zone of extreme weather, as the current El Niño could be the strongest in over 70 years and may last until at least February 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have risen rapidly and could be nearly 4 degrees Celsius above average, making this El Niño the strongest since 1950. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the world is facing an unprecedented situation. Expected impacts include below-normal rainfall in Southeast Asia, Central America, and northern South America, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires. Indonesia is racing to control wildfires that have already burned over 107,000 hectares. The Panama Canal is preparing to reduce the number of ships allowed to transit by more than 10% to cope with reduced rainfall. China is preparing for up to seven typhoons making landfall this year. Many countries are stepping up preparedness measures, including the United States, which has announced sending the hospital ship USNS Comfort to the coast of Peru to provide medical support before El Niño reaches its peak intensity.

The Cabinet has approved in principle a universal disaster insurance program covering 30 million households nationwide. The government will pay annual premiums of approximately 15.5 billion baht to provide housing coverage of up to 100,000 baht per household per occurrence, and 2 million baht per person in case of death, with initial payouts available within 15 days. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced after the Cabinet's mobile meeting in the South that this program will shift the compensation system from waiting for relief funds to insurance payouts, which are faster and more generous. The total coverage amount is 75 billion baht per year, compared to the previous annual relief budget of about 40 billion baht. Additionally, an urgent budget of 142 million baht was approved to address disasters in the southern region.

Verisk's catastrophe modeling unit has released its 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report, calculating that the insurance industry should prepare for $171 billion in average annual insured catastrophe losses, up $19 billion from a year ago and the highest estimate Verisk has reported to date. The benchmark rose even after a year with no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, driven by exposure growth, rising reconstruction costs, and continued development in catastrophe-prone areas. Of the $171 billion global insured average annual loss, $117 billion, or 68 percent, is attributed to the United States, with severe thunderstorm accounting for 40 percent of modeled risk, ahead of tropical cyclone at 27 percent, earthquake at 10 percent, winter storm at 9 percent, flood at 7 percent, and wildfire at 6 percent. The report also notes that a severe catastrophe year could generate losses nearly three times higher than the global AAL, with modeled aggregate insured losses reaching $477 billion at the 100-year return period and $606 billion at the 250-year return period. Since Verisk first published this report in 2012, the estimated global insured AAL has nearly tripled, rising from $59 billion to $171 billion, reflecting expanded model coverage and growth in insured exposure.

Verisk's catastrophe modelling unit has released its 2026 Global Modelled Catastrophe Losses Report, calculating that the insurance industry should be prepared to withstand $171 billion in insured catastrophe losses on average in a given year, up $19 billion from a year ago and the highest estimate Verisk has reported to date. The benchmark rose even after a year with no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, reflecting continued growth in property values and insured values worldwide. Severe thunderstorm accounts for 40 percent of modelled insured catastrophe risk, more than any other peril, ahead of tropical cyclone at 27 percent, earthquake at 10 percent, winter storm at 9 percent, flood at 7 percent, and wildfire at 6 percent. At the 100-year return period, modelled aggregate insured losses reach $477 billion, and at the 250-year return period, they reach $606 billion. The report also highlights a persistent protection gap, noting that globally only about 38 percent of economic losses from natural catastrophes are insured, while in Europe, only about $24 billion of the region's $110 billion in expected annual economic catastrophe losses is insured, or 22 percent.

Anutin Charnvirakul, Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, visited the Khuan Na Water Gate (Khlong Phumiphat Damri) in Hat Yai District, Songkhla Province, to follow up on the flood prevention system plan for Hat Yai City and to hear a report on readiness for the 2026 flood season. The Royal Irrigation Department confirmed that the restoration of damaged structures will be completed before October 2026, covering the dredging of 7 canals, and that Canal Ror 1 will be able to drain 1,200 cubic meters per second. The Prime Minister emphasized that the government will integrate rainfall, water, and weather data to alert the public immediately, and instructed to streamline assistance and relief procedures. He also thanked the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for supporting medical equipment and repairing shelters. In addition, at tomorrow's Cabinet meeting, a proposal will be made to provide flood insurance to every household, without requiring proof of tenant or owner status, to expedite relief when incidents occur.

A new study published in the journal Science finds that temperature variability associated with the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean has been more intense than at any time in the 1,000 years before the Industrial Revolution. ENSO variability over recent decades has been more than 36% higher than in the pre-industrial period, with the sharpest increase occurring over the past 40 years. ENSO encompasses both warm El Niño and cool La Niña events, which affect rainfall and temperatures worldwide, leading to droughts, floods, and agricultural problems. The increased variability is driven mainly by more frequent and intense El Niño events, coupled with rising global temperatures. Meanwhile, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on August 13 that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-2027. The study also warns that ENSO variability in the eastern Pacific has already exceeded the ceiling recorded in coral structures from centuries before the Industrial Revolution.

According to a Robeco survey, the "Robeco Global Climate Investing Survey," which polled 300 investors worldwide (200 institutional investors and 100 wholesale distributors with total assets under management of approximately $35 trillion), indicates that the importance of climate change in investment policies is expected to recover from 46% in 2025 to 47% in 2026, and to increase further over the next two years. The survey has been conducted annually since 2021, and this is the sixth edition. The full survey report is scheduled to be published in October. Hiroaki Furusho, President and Representative Director of Robeco Japan, said, "Robeco initially emerged as an asset manager with strong quantitative capabilities, and in recent years we have leveraged those capabilities to focus on sustainable investing. Within our group of about 1,000 employees, we have over 50 specialists dedicated to sustainable investing, and we have gained high recognition in this field." The survey found that concerns over energy security due to the Middle East conflict and the increasing frequency of natural disasters have reignited interest in sustainable investing, with investors beginning to focus on the impact of physical climate risks on asset values. Additionally, Robeco's analysis shows that "leader companies" have achieved performance on par with equity indices, while "laggard companies" have clearly underperformed the indices.

Deputy Prime Minister Pakorn Nilpraphun is preparing to propose that the mobile cabinet meeting in Songkhla approve a basic disaster insurance purchase programme for 20 million households, focusing on high-risk areas, to reduce the government's relief budget burden. The plan uses the Japanese model, under which insurers pay directly according to criteria set by the Office of Insurance Commission, covering floods, windstorms and earthquakes. It is expected to take effect as early as 1 October 2026, in line with the prime minister's policy.

CIMB Thai Bank has identified three key megatrends that will draw green capital into Thailand: AI data centers, climate adaptation, and transition finance. The bank notes that climate adaptation projects have strong potential to raise funds through sustainable debt instruments such as Thailand Amber Bonds and transition bonds, which will help improve the bankability of the country's green projects.

CIMB Thai Bank says sustainable finance is moving from an era of classifying green assets to an era of capital allocation. Financial institutions will increasingly assess project feasibility, transition pathways, readiness in energy, water and infrastructure, and the ability of assets to generate income amid climate risk. The three key megatrends are transition finance, the expansion of AI and data centre infrastructure, and climate adaptation. In transition finance, the new bottleneck is likely to be corporate readiness, because debt instruments are only financial tools, not transition plans. Businesses therefore need to clearly define the assets to be transformed, greenhouse gas reduction targets, investment amounts, project sequencing and responsible parties. On AI and data centre infrastructure, CIMB Thai sees investment in Thailand shifting from quantity to quality. Investment promotion applications to the Board of Investment in the digital sector stood at 1.12 trillion baht, while data centre screening criteria now emphasise energy and water efficiency, environmental impact, benefits to the country, and the transition to clean energy. As a result, readiness in energy, water, power grids and climate risk management has become a key factor in project feasibility and bankability. At the same time, climate adaptation will play a larger role. World Bank data shows that of Thailand's climate investment needs of 219 billion US dollars, adaptation accounts for as much as 105 billion US dollars, exceeding the 96 billion US dollars for greenhouse gas reduction. In 2025, CIMB Thai has approved sustainable finance under its GSSIPS framework of about 22.98 billion baht, covering large corporate clients, investment banking, financial institutions and individuals. Its Sustainability360 Advisory Program has supported sustainability-linked fundraising connected to the market of more than 7 billion baht. The bank is also developing the Climate Transition Canvas, a tool to help plan climate transition by linking greenhouse gas reduction targets, carbon reduction measures, investment needs, funding sources, economic value and governance, so that they can lead to concrete financing. Jason Lee, Head of Sustainability, said that from 2026 to 2028, Thai businesses need to watch five trends: project readiness will be a key constraint on access to transition finance; energy competition will affect the location of AI infrastructure; water, power grids and climate resilience will carry more weight in data centre bankability; investment budgets to manage climate risk will increase; and sustainability functions in the financial sector will become more involved in capital allocation decisions. Driving Thailand's new economy requires linking carbon reduction, digital transition and climate adaptation with financial and investment plans to create long-term value for the Thai economy.

The global average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions in July 2026 surged to 20.96 degrees Celsius, breaking the record for July, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The previous record was 20.89 degrees Celsius in 2023, partly driven by an emerging El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, last month tied as the second-hottest July on record globally, with global temperatures about 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. Western Europe experienced its hottest June and July on record, with an average temperature of 21.62 degrees Celsius, 2.79 degrees above the norm. The persistent hot and dry conditions also fueled severe wildfires in several areas. Samantha Burgess from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said July 2026 marked the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in Western Europe, warning that extreme weather is becoming the new normal.

US commercial property insurer FM has acquired FortressFire, a wildfire intelligence company that uses machine learning and physics-based modelling. Financial terms were not disclosed. FortressFire will operate as an independent, wholly owned division of FM, continuing to serve insurers, reinsurers, brokers, real estate professionals, lenders, and property owners under its existing brand and leadership. FM chairman and CEO Malcolm Roberts said the deal reinforces the company's belief in data-driven, location-based risk mitigation, while FortressFire founder Michael Ashker called the acquisition a validation of its science-based approach to ignition prevention.

Climate exposure is increasingly altering the financial calculus of retail properties, moving beyond sustainability to become a core operating-cost and estate-planning issue. Insurance costs for U.S. commercial real estate surged 88% over five years, with MSCI data showing insurance reached 2.4% of income receivable in the 12 months to the third quarter of 2024, double the share five years earlier. However, the broader concern is that location-specific hazards like floods, wildfires, and severe convective storms—which Swiss Re Institute says accounted for 92% of global insured natural catastrophe losses in 2025—can disrupt trading, damage stock, and lengthen recovery times, making a store’s long-term economics depend on total risk rather than rent and footfall alone. Retailers are urged to assess risk store by store, invest in resilience where it matters most, and factor insurance, potential downtime, and adaptation costs into lease renewals and capital-allocation decisions.

The National Drought Group of England declared additional areas to be in drought on Monday, bringing the total to 71.3% of England now facing flash drought. This follows July rainfall being the lowest in 190 years, and August rainfall so far at only 5% of expected levels. Around 45 million people live in drought-affected areas, and more than 27 million are under water restriction measures. The Water Minister said the government recognises the hardship, especially the impact on farmers from climate change, which is causing more frequent floods and droughts.

Deputy Prime Minister Ekanit Nitithanpraphat has ordered the creation of a risk map, or Risk Map, for water management in the central region. The directive was issued during the first meeting of the Committee for Flood and Drought Prevention and Mitigation in the Central Region for the year 2569. Relevant agencies are to integrate geospatial technology from GISTDA, the Office of National Water Resources, the Meteorological Department, the Royal Irrigation Department, and the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation to jointly assess risk points in real time. They are also to prepare operational checklists for provincial governors to implement immediately, such as inspecting sluice gates, installing water pumps, and preparing water retention areas. In addition, he ordered the establishment of provincial incident command centers, the setting up of temporary shelters, and the rapid dissemination of water situation information through two-way communication systems. This aims to reduce risks from the super El Niño phenomenon that is approaching Thailand. In the central region, there are 124 villages at very high risk of flooding across 8 provinces, and 533 villages at high risk across 12 provinces. For drought, there are 66 villages at very high risk in 2 provinces, and 105 villages at high risk in 3 provinces.

Orion180 Insurance has launched its Residential Private Flood Insurance in California, offering customizable coverage that goes beyond the National Flood Insurance Program. The new product provides up to $1 million in building coverage with waiting periods as short as 10 days, compared to the NFIP's $250,000 cap and 30-day wait. Policies are designed to meet FMAC and FNMA requirements and cover X, A, and V flood zones, with most homeowners able to obtain coverage without elevation certificates. CEO Ken Gregg noted that flooding is a growing concern even in areas not traditionally high-risk, and the company aims to deliver protection reflecting a homeowner's real flood exposure.

CIMB Thai Bank has launched the Climate Transition Canvas, a climate transition planning tool developed by Jason Lee, the bank's Head of Sustainability. It was piloted with executives from nearly 20 companies in high-emission industries, or brown sectors, such as energy, fossil fuels, manufacturing, and real estate, during a technical workshop titled Advancing the Transition at The Cooler Earth Thailand 2026 event. The tool consolidates greenhouse gas reduction plans and financial plans onto a single page, helping companies see the cost of each project alongside the amount of emissions reduced, and allocate funding to projects with the lowest cost per unit first. Thailand's sustainable bond market currently has a cumulative value of 1.1 trillion baht, but nearly 70% of private-sector bond issuance comes from companies that are already low-carbon emitters, while heavy industries struggle to raise funds because they cannot present transition plans with clear costings. The Climate Transition Canvas is part of CIMB Thai's Sustainability360 programme, which helps businesses move from goals to real-world implementation, covering environmental and sustainability fundraising, the application of the Thailand Taxonomy, and the strengthening of data systems and reporting.