Freeport-McMoRan Stock Could Be 28% Below Fair Value on Copper Growth Narrative

American companies across manufacturing, transportation and retail are being squeezed by a three-way combination of Trump administration tariffs, surging fuel prices from the Iran war and rising interest rates. Allen Eden, owner of the 25-person Original Saw Co. in Britt, Iowa, said a small bracket for his saw motors more than doubled in price this summer, to $87 from $42, as he stockpiles aluminum, steel and parts. JPMorgan Chase global strategy head Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said in a Sept. 14 note that smaller companies relying on shorter-term lending absorb Fed hikes more directly, while capital-intensive sectors like manufacturing, trucking and commercial real estate suffer most. Lucerne International, a Detroit-area auto parts maker, halted U.S. manufacturing and canceled a $50 million aluminum forging plant in Michigan, and Spanish supplier Grupo Antolin filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. in July, citing tariffs, higher raw-material and energy costs and supply-chain disruptions. Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail said energy and raw-material pressure will fully offset the benefit of $730 million in tariff refunds, while United CFO Mike Leskinen said the airline is cutting marginal routes that don't make sense in a higher fuel environment.

Franco-Nevada reported second-quarter revenue up 57% to $580.9 million and net income up 43% to $354 million, with gold equivalent ounces sold climbing 18% to 132,405, and said it is tracking toward the upper half of its 2026 guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA rose 45% to $529.7 million, or $2.75 a share, while operating cash flow climbed 12% to $482.5 million; for the first half, revenue hit a record $1.23 billion, up 67%, and adjusted net income reached $807.5 million, up 82%. With $4.3 billion in available capital as of June 30, the company closed four royalty deals, including a $40 million portfolio from Victoria Gold Corp. on April 16, a $32.9 million royalty on Rox Resources' Youanmi gold project on May 29, a $2.0 million royalty tied to Equinox Gold's Greenstone mine on June 22, and an $8.4 million royalty on Gorilla Gold Mines' Comet Vale project on July 15. The Cobre Panama stream restarted on April 7 under government approval to process and export stockpiled ore, though the mine remains in Preservation and Safe Management and its longer-term fate rests with a Panamanian ministerial commission weighing a June 19 audit that found 87.7% compliance. Operator First Quantum estimates 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of copper from the stockpiles in 2026 out of about 70,000 tonnes total including 2027 processing, while Franco-Nevada's stream deliveries, expected near 23,100 gold ounces and 265,000 silver ounces, are set to begin only in the third quarter of 2026 and depend on First Quantum selling that concentrate under its offtake contracts.