Copper

China Nerin signed a contract with KONKOLA COPPER MINES PLC for a new 70,000-tonne-per-year copper tailings leach plant project in Zambia, with a contract value of approximately $498 million, equivalent to about 3.378 billion yuan. The project uses a hydrometallurgical leaching process to recover valuable metals from existing copper tailings, with China Nerin responsible for design, procurement, construction and installation, commissioning, and technical support services. On the same day, the controlling shareholder of Fujian Expressway plans to increase its shareholding by no less than 130 million yuan and no more than 230 million yuan, with the increase not exceeding 2% of total share capital. Fulongma signed a sanitation autonomous driving technology development contract with Huawei Cloud Computing, with a total contract value of 200 million yuan and a term of three years, under which Huawei Cloud Computing will exclusively develop and deploy the Fulongma sanitation autonomous driving system for the company. Xianghe Industrial signed a railway fastener system component purchase and sale contract with Zhongyuan Lida Railway Track Technology Development Co., Ltd., with a total contract value of 178 million yuan, accounting for approximately 21.32% of the company's audited 2025 revenue.

UBS has upgraded industrial metals to Overweight, turning more bullish on the sector as it argues structural forces will support commodity prices over the coming years. The bank's strategists pointed to a steady rise in emerging market demand, global efforts to reach net-zero emissions, climate change and structural underinvestment across almost every sector. UBS said it expects commodities to deliver strong diversification benefits for traditional bond and equity portfolios over the medium term, with both macroeconomic conditions and market-based signals remaining supportive. The strategists wrote that the recent pullback in base metals prices offers an opportunity to increase exposure, and that constrained supply and supportive structural demand should provide a floor for prices and underpin a recovery over the coming quarters. Still, the bank cautioned that prices are unlikely to rise in a straight line and recommended an actively managed approach built on three pillars: dynamically adjusting overall exposure to the asset class, taking a differentiated sector approach, and enhancing returns on cash collateral by replacing money-market securities with a higher-yielding portfolio.

COMEX December copper futures closed up 6.55 cents, or 1.02%, at $6.5090 per pound on Wednesday, September 16, supported by signs of recovering demand from China, the largest consumer. Meanwhile, the Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China's copper import demand, rose 7% to $118 per tonne, its highest level in nearly four years. David Wilson, head of metals strategy at BNP Paribas, said Chinese buyers took advantage of earlier price weakness to buy copper and replenish inventories, pushing import premiums higher. Inflows of copper into U.S. COMEX warehouses have begun to slow after reports last week that the White House has not yet reached a conclusion on tariffs for processed copper imports, as a working group is still assessing concerns that higher raw material prices could further strain manufacturing costs.

Selkirk Copper Mines Inc. announced that its Minto Project has been selected for inclusion in the 2026 Canada Investment Summit Dealbook, a curated summary of investment opportunities profiled to leading Canadian and global investors attending the inaugural summit. The Minto Project, a copper-gold-silver mine restart opportunity in the Yukon Territory targeting first production in mid-2028, is one of a select group of opportunities profiled from the Yukon Territory. Selkirk Copper is the first publicly traded mining company in Canada where a majority equity stake is held by a First Nation, the Selkirk First Nation. The summit is hosted by Prime Minister Mark Carney in partnership with CPP Investments and PSP Investments and forms part of the Government of Canada's broader objective of catalyzing C$1 trillion in total investment in Canada over the next five years, with critical minerals identified among the sectors expected to drive new investment. President and CEO Colin Joudrie said the inclusion provides valuable visibility among investors and highlights the Minto Project's potential to contribute to near-term critical mineral development in Canada, while Selkirk First Nation Chief Jeremy Harper said the partnership brings together industry expertise and investment capacity with Selkirk citizen knowledge and stewardship.

BlackRock has once again raised its recommendation on emerging-market, or EM, equities to overweight, arguing that limited access to the resources needed to expand the artificial intelligence industry, along with strong earnings, will help these stocks outperform the broader market. South Korea and Taiwan form the backbone of the semiconductor and memory chip supply chain, while Latin America offers investors exposure to the commodities and infrastructure needed to expand AI investment. The return to an overweight call marks a reversal from June, when BlackRock cut its EM equity recommendation from overweight to neutral, warning that concentrated AI-related positioning and leverage levels, particularly in South Korea, meant the risks investors had to bear were not worth the expected returns. It said the unwinding of leverage in the South Korean stock market after severe selling pressure in July was one of the factors supporting this renewed overweight on EM equities. Still, several factors could affect the call, including whether rising earnings growth and cheaper valuations can offset risks from higher borrowing costs, elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions. BlackRock also believes a weaker dollar and recovering capital inflows will support emerging markets. Most analysts' estimates indicate that earnings for companies in the MSCI Emerging Markets index will grow more than 34% over the next 12 months, above the roughly 20% expected for the MSCI USA index, while EM stocks trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 10 times.

Citi has reaffirmed its bullish stance on copper, holding its three-month price target at $15,000 a tonne. In its September outlook, the bank said the balance of risks was skewed to the upside despite the threat of US tariffs hanging over the market, and it pointed to a mix of structural, cyclical and strategic tailwinds it expects to support prices into 2027. Citi acknowledged that copper looks exposed in the near term, with heavy positioning by investment funds leaving the metal vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if bearish news on American copper tariffs emerges, though it argued any such setback would prove temporary. On tariffs, the bank said it does not expect the US to impose a levy on imported copper cathode, the refined form traded on global exchanges, and cautioned that official clarity was unlikely before the American mid-term elections, and possibly not even then. Citi framed any near-term wobble on tariff doubts as a buying opportunity rather than a turn in the wider trend.

Toronto-Dominion Bank launched a five-year, $150B commitment to accelerate investment, growth, and innovation across sectors critical to Canada's economy. The commitment will support new lending, underwriting, advisory, and other financing activities across five key areas: energy, critical minerals and resources, defence and aerospace, digital and AI, and infrastructure. TD will also focus on supporting small and mid-sized businesses, Indigenous economic participation, sustainable growth, workforce readiness and AI enablement.

BMO announced it plans to mobilize up to $70 billion in new capital over 10 years for sectors critical to Canada's economic security and resilience. The commitment, described by the bank as Canada's first, targets electricity infrastructure including generation, transmission and distribution, energy infrastructure such as pipelines, transportation infrastructure including roads, airports and terminals, mining and critical minerals, AI computing, defence and security, and oil and gas. Chief Executive Officer Darryl White said the initiative builds on more than 200 years of financing Canadian growth, dating to 1817, and that the opportunities in these sectors represent the latest chapter in that story. The capital is expected to take the form of bank financing, debt capital markets activity and the raising of public equity, and reflects expected demand from initiatives proposed to Canada's Major Projects Office, projects supporting Canada's National Electricity Strategy, the Trilateral MOU among the Federal Government, the Province of Alberta and the Oil Sands Alliance, Canadian Sovereign AI initiatives, and proprietary BMO analysis for the defence and oil and gas sectors. BMO said it authorized nearly $300 billion in lending to over 270,000 Canadian businesses and organizations in 2025, invested approximately $3.4 billion in Canadian companies and innovation ecosystems, and has more than 30,000 employees across Canada.

On September 11, Sungrow, a global leader in solar and energy storage, sent a product price adjustment notice to downstream customers, announcing that starting September 20 it will raise prices for photovoltaic inverters, energy storage converters, and energy storage systems by 5% to 15%. A reporter from The Paper confirmed with a relevant person in charge of Sungrow's power energy storage product line that the main reason for the price increase is the rise in bulk material prices such as copper and aluminum, and secondarily to curb vicious low-price competition. Sungrow stated that the magnitude of upstream material price increases in this round has continued to exceed expectations, and existing product pricing can no longer cover the comprehensive investment in raw materials, manufacturing, technology iteration and upgrades, as well as after-sales operation and maintenance. This is not Sungrow's first price increase this year. In the first quarter, it and other inverter leaders such as Ginlong Technologies took the lead in raising prices for energy-storage-specific models by 6% to 10%. Since July, more than ten companies along the industry chain, including EVE Energy, Sinexcel, and Inovance Technology, have intensively issued price adjustment notices covering battery cells, converters, and solar-storage-charging equipment, with increases ranging from 5% to 30%. Cost pressure comes from multiple sources: lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low point of less than 60,000 yuan per ton in mid-2025, and once exceeded 210,000 yuan per ton in June 2026, a cumulative increase of more than 200%. The surge in AI computing power has squeezed wafer production capacity, and prices of key components such as memory chips and IGBTs have generally risen by between 50% and 800%. Tian Qingjun, senior vice president of Envision, expressed opposition to vicious price competition and pointed out that planned capacity expansion for energy storage cells in the industry this year has already exceeded 800 gigawatt-hours, with completed capacity by the end of the year expected to be about 1.2 to 1.5 terawatt-hours, and total planned capacity approaching 2 terawatt-hours, far exceeding real global market demand. At present, price increases along the industry chain are mainly driven by rising costs, and whether the price increases can be accepted by downstream project owners still needs to be observed by the market.

Copper has reached a fresh nominal record, according to National Bank of Canada's Kyle Dahms. Dahms attributes the rally to AI-related data-centre demand, electricity grid expansion, tariff-driven stockpiling and supply disruptions. The record price comes amid what he describes as real constraints on the market.

Nanthapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, disclosed that the construction material price index in August 2026 stood at 113.1, up 6.1 percent compared with August 2025, continuing to expand on the back of still-tense geopolitical conflicts that have kept oil and energy prices volatile at high levels and affected production and logistics chains, pushing the price index higher in almost every category. The category posting the largest increase was other construction materials, up 15.7 percent on asphalt and natural material prices, followed by electrical and plumbing equipment, up 12.7 percent on world copper prices that continued to rise amid demand from infrastructure, the clean energy industry, and advanced technology. Concrete products rose 9.6 percent, wood and wood products rose 4.5 percent, tiles rose 4.0 percent, sanitary ware rose 3.7 percent, and surface coating materials rose 1.7 percent. Categories whose prices declined were steel and steel products, down 0.6 percent on excess steel supply from China, and cement, down 0.2 percent on intense market competition. Nanthapong added that the construction material price index in September 2026 is expected to continue expanding, with prices of wires and electrical equipment likely to rise on copper prices amid tight supply after copper mines in Chile and Peru were affected by natural disasters, together with rising copper demand for infrastructure construction and data center construction to support the continuous expansion of artificial intelligence technology. At the same time, demand for construction materials to repair roads, buildings, and housing after disasters is another factor supporting the index's continued expansion.

Sibanye Stillwater reported a record first half on September 1, swinging to an R18.8 billion profit from a R3.9 billion loss a year earlier as revenue jumped 64% to R90 billion, or $5.5 billion, and headline earnings per share rocketed 216% to R6.01 from R1.90. Higher platinum group metals and gold prices drove the result, and management used the windfall to cut gross debt 18% to R32.1 billion, pulling net debt to just 0.18 times adjusted EBITDA, while adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to R31.8 billion. The board declared a R2.01 per share interim dividend, the top of its 25% to 35% payout policy, for a total of R5.7 billion, and approved two growth projects: Burnstone, a shallow gold project receiving $98 million for 2026 and targeted at 130,000 ounces a year over a 25-year life from 2029, and Mt Lyell, a Tasmanian copper project with a net present value above $1 billion at current spot prices. Underlying operations were weaker, with South African PGM production down 2% to 789,647 4E ounces and all-in sustaining cost up 10% to R26,252 per ounce, gold production down 2% and its all-in sustaining cost up 14% to R1,638,089 per kilogram, and US PGM output down 2%. Executive Vice President Charles Carter said the US workforce has resisted incentive changes tied to the Stillwater mechanization plan, and CEO Richard Stewart warned the operation may eventually have to close if mechanization fails to push costs toward $1,000 an ounce.

Rio Tinto has secured consent from the Nyangumarta people for the development of the Winu copper and gold project in Western Australia, with the company aiming to bring the mine into production by 2030. The Winu project is located about 300 kilometres south of Broome, in the Great Sandy Desert, and is Rio Tinto's most advanced new copper mine project, as well as a key part of the company's copper expansion strategy. Rio Tinto and the Nyangumarta Warrarn Aboriginal Corporation have signed a project agreement that sets out how the Nyangumarta people will take part in planning and developing the project, including measures to protect the environment and Indigenous cultural heritage. However, the project still requires regulatory and other approvals, as well as a final investment decision. Rio Tinto will develop and operate the Winu mine, holding a 70% stake in the joint venture, while Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining holds the remaining 30%.

COMEX copper futures for December delivery closed up 6.50 cents, or 0.95%, at 6.8885 dollars per pound, driven by concerns over tight global supply and uncertainty over US import tariffs on copper. Copper prices have risen since the start of the year on supply problems, after global copper mine output fell 1.1% in the first half of the year as production was disrupted in Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Morgan Stanley estimates that mine output for the full year may be flat or lower, which would be the first decline since 2017, running counter to structural demand that continues to expand. On tariff policy, traders have been rushing copper shipments into the United States for several months to avoid the impact before the US may begin collecting a 15% import tariff on refined copper from January 2027, with a possible increase to 30% in 2028, even though the US government has neither confirmed nor scrapped the plan, and the Commerce Department's study is already more than two months past its due date. The COMEX premium of about 3% over the London market continues to encourage copper flows into the United States, pushing US refined copper imports in July to a record high of 225,094 tonnes. Copper prices have surged even as China, the world's largest copper consumer, sees its economy slow, particularly amid a still-depressed property crisis, causing China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August to fall to 382,000 tonnes, the lowest level for August in six years.

Eldorado Gold has produced its first copper-gold concentrate at the Skouries Project in northern Greece, moving the site from construction towards operational status, with commercial production targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. The initial concentrate was produced during commissioning and ramp-up, following the first ore delivery to the crusher in July 2026. Key process plant components, including crushing, grinding, flotation, and tailings thickening circuits, have been successfully commissioned, and the ore stockpile holds over 4.6 million tonnes above reserve grade, supporting more than seven months of processing. CEO George Burns called it a defining moment, noting that Skouries, together with McIlvenna Bay in Saskatchewan, is expected to transform Eldorado into a larger, more diversified producer. Temporary power is supporting early operations while grid connection, expected in September 2026, awaits Greek transmission authority inspections. Over the mine's life, Skouries is forecast to yield an average of 140,000 ounces of gold and 67 million pounds of copper annually.