GBS sees SET falling this week in line with global stocks on Middle East war fears stoking inflation and rate hikes

Price Action
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Summary · why it matters

Globlex Securities assesses that the Thai stock market this week is likely to decline in line with global markets, with the main pressure coming from tensions in the Middle East after Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. This sent crude oil prices sharply higher and markets worried about inflation possibly accelerating again. GBS therefore sets a SET index range of 1,600 to 1,650 points. However, there are also positive factors from a strong domestic economy, with investment promotion applications in the first half of 2026 valued at over 1.47 trillion baht, up 37 percent. Meanwhile, the United States saw initial jobless claims fall to 187,000 and reached a nuclear technology cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia. On the negative side, factors to watch include US trade policy imposing tariffs on imports from 60 countries, with Thailand facing the highest rate of 12.5 percent, as well as the global interest rate direction where investors are pricing in an 83 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates in September. The VIX index also surged over 12.38 percent to close at 18.70, reflecting fragile market conditions. GBS recommends five fundamentally strong stocks to accumulate: ADVANC, AOT, BH, GULF, and KBANK.

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