Kasikornbank Public Company Limited

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's export value in July 2026 stood at 34.8 billion US dollars, expanding 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 17.8%. Meanwhile, imports for the same month were 38.4 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, lower than expected, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.61 billion US dollars, less than forecast. Products with good growth include rubber, processed chicken, pet food, processed canned seafood, and electronic goods. Stocks in these sectors, such as STA, GFPT, ITC, TU, DELTA, HANA, and KCE, benefit accordingly. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled 232 billion US dollars, up 18.2%, while imports were 267 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 35.4 billion US dollars. The Ministry of Commerce sees support from global demand for technology products and digital infrastructure, as well as accelerated imports to prepare for US trade policies. Meanwhile, brokers like Krungsri Securities and Phillip Securities view positively on export-related stocks and recommend top picks such as DELTA, HANA, KCE, AMATA, GULF, GPSC, KBANK, and KTB.

Kasikornbank (KBANK) and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP) have announced interim dividend payments. KBANK will pay 2 baht per share, while KKP will pay 3.25 baht per share, which is higher than the broker's forecast of 1.75 baht. Both companies will have their XD dates on September 9, 2026, and will pay dividends on September 25, 2026, for KBANK and September 24, 2026, for KKP. Analysts from Krungsri Securities noted that KKP's dividend yield stands at 2.8%.

SCB X Bank (SCB) has announced an interim dividend of 2 baht per share, paid from retained earnings, with the XD date set for September 8, 2026, and payment on September 25, 2026. Meanwhile, KGI Securities (Thailand) expects most banks to pay interim dividends at 15-20% of their full-year dividend, except TTB, which may pay up to 50%. KKP is expected to increase dividends strongly, driven by a 65% profit growth in the first half. For 2026, KTB is expected to have a payout ratio of 80%, and KBANK 65%. KBANK paid a special dividend of 2 baht per share in 2025. Despite recent share price increases, dividend yields for SCB, KKP, KTB, and TISCO remain above 6%. KGI Securities prefers KBANK, KTB, and KKP due to strong earnings support and solid financial positions.

TAGTHAi, the national tourism platform, has launched TAGTHAi Easy Pay, a digital wallet for international tourists, in partnership with Kasikornbank, Siam Piwat Group, The Mall Group, and MBK Public Company Limited to offer special privileges when using the service. Tourists can exchange Thai baht, top up their digital wallet, and scan to pay via Thai QR Payment nationwide. This collaboration aims to boost the tourism economy and create a secure and convenient cashless payment ecosystem for international tourists. The privileges include a 300 baht discount on the purchase of the TAGTHAi Bangkok Pass or a free BTS One-Day Pass when spending reaches a certain amount at participating shopping centers, which will encourage tourist spending and generate income for Thai businesses.

KGI Securities views that commercial banks will gradually pay interim dividends for the first half of 2026, expecting KKP and TTB to offer attractive yields. Meanwhile, SCB, KKP, KTB, and TISCO have full-year dividend yields exceeding 6%. TTB has announced an interim dividend of 0.081 baht per share, with the XD date on September 7, 2026, and payment on September 25, 2026. KGI expects KKP to pay a total dividend of 7.65 baht per share for 2026, representing a yield of 6.7%; KTB to pay 2.73 baht per share, yielding 6.2%; SCB to pay 11 baht per share, yielding 7.2%; and TISCO to pay 7.75 baht per share, yielding 6.2%. Meanwhile, KBANK is expected to pay 14.50 baht per share, yielding 5.7%; BBL to pay 10 baht per share, yielding 5.3%; and TTB to pay 0.14 baht per share, yielding 4.9%. KGI continues to favor KBANK and KTB over other banks, citing that loan recovery and net interest margin (NIM) have bottomed out and will support performance. KKP is also favored due to strong profit growth of 65% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 and the potential for credit costs to fall below 1%.

Hua Seng Heng has joined forces with Kasikornbank to launch real-time gold trading for both 99.99% and 96.5% purity in US dollars on the K PLUS app, starting from just 10 US dollars with no trading fees. Customers must open a K PLUS Global Savings foreign currency deposit account to convert currency and transact immediately, with prices and exchange rates referenced from Hua Seng Heng. US dollars held in the account earn deposit interest of up to 2.25% per year. Investors can also accumulate 96.5% gold in Thai baht through dollar-cost averaging and withdraw physical gold at any Hua Seng Heng branch or have it delivered to their home via Thailand Post, covering every province nationwide.

Krungsri Securities said commercial banks reported loans in July 2026 edged up 0.1% from the previous month, as government loans rose while SME and retail loans declined. The bank with the strongest loan growth was KTB, up 2.0% month on month, followed by KKP up 1.1% and TISCO up 0.1%. Most other banks reported loan contraction, led by BBL down 1.2%, followed by TTB down 0.6%, KBANK down 0.4% and SCB down 0.2%. Compared with the end of last year, banking sector loans rose 2.6%, led by KTB at 6.1%, followed by KKP at 4.6%, KBANK at 2.8%, SCB at 2.4% and BBL at 1.4%, while TISCO was flat and TTB contracted 2.6%. Deposits in July rose 0.6% from the previous month and were up 2.0% from the end of last year. The loan to deposit ratio stood at 83.2%, down from 83.6% in June. Krungsri Securities has a slightly positive view on the July loan figures and maintains a bullish stance on the banking sector, expecting return on equity in 2027 to rise from 2026 as the rate downcycle has ended, a new investment cycle returns, and wealth management grows. It also views bank share prices as inexpensive at 0.9 times price to book value, below the 1.5 times seen in 2011 to 2015 and the 1.5 to 3.0 times for ASEAN banks, and selects KBANK and KTB as top picks.

Siam Commercial Bank has launched the SCB GOLD MARKETPLACE feature on its SCB EASY app, bringing together three major gold retailers, Hua Seng Heng, Mae Thong Suk, and YLG, in one place. Customers can trade gold in US dollars through an SCB e-FCD account with no fees, starting from 0.05 baht weight of gold, or about 6,000 baht, and can withdraw physical gold. Kasikornbank has responded with a USD gold trading service through K PLUS in partnership with Hua Seng Heng, with a minimum of just 10 US dollars, or around 300 baht, no fees, and interest of 2.25 percent per year on K PLUS Global Savings accounts. Meanwhile, Krungthai Bank's Pao Tang app also offers a Gold Wallet feature for trading gold in US dollars with a special exchange rate and interest of 2.25 percent per year as well. Thipa Navawatthanasap, chief executive officer of YLG Bullion and Futures, said younger investors, especially Gen Z, are increasingly turning to small-scale gold investment through smartphones. Chinese Gen Z investors start buying gold from age 14, and investors aged 16 to 27 worldwide account for 15.4 percent.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

American Express has announced partnerships with Kasikornbank, Bank of Ayudhya, and Siam Commercial Bank to expand its card acceptance network across Thailand, aiming to bring premium spending power into the Thai economy. Premium cardholders spend up to three times more annually than other card networks. Between 2023 and 2025, the number of Amex card members travelling to Thailand rose 47 percent, in line with the government's High Value Tourism policy. Sirisun, Country Manager for Thailand, said the expansion of card acceptance will cover travel, dining, and lifestyle categories to serve both members in Thailand and premium tourists from around the world. Currently, Amex is accepted at more than 170 million merchants worldwide, and the number of merchants accepting the card has doubled since 2021.

KGI Securities Thailand has raised its 2026 SET index target to 1,820 points, seeing upside of about 12% from current levels after its latest earnings-per-share estimate revisions and an increase in its target price-to-earnings multiple to 14.8 times, which is the 10-year average minus 0.5 standard deviation. In the second quarter of 2026, combined profit of companies under KGI's coverage was 302 billion baht, up 13% from a year earlier and from the previous quarter, about 10% above the Bloomberg consensus. But excluding the energy and petrochemical sector, which benefited from surging oil prices and wider product spreads because of the US-Iran war, quarterly profit would have fallen 26% from a year earlier and 6.2% from the previous quarter. The sharp year-on-year profit decline was due to an unusually high profit base at GULF in the second quarter of 2025, when a large one-time gain was booked. KGI views the new target as quite challenging because the earnings estimate upgrades are concentrated in the energy sector, which is cyclical and trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple than other sectors, and the best quarter for energy may already be behind us. As a result, only a few large domestic stocks still offer attractive risk-reward, such as CPALL, CPN, KBANK, KTB and GULF.

WHA Premium Growth Real Estate and Leasehold Investment Trust, or WHART, has filed a registration statement for the offering of trust units with the Securities and Exchange Commission to raise capital for investment in the WGC International Distribution Centre, or WGCL, with a total investment value not exceeding 2.508 billion baht. The capital increase units are expected to be offered by late September 2026. Mr. Suphasit Sitthaset, Chief Executive Officer of WHA Real Estate Management Company Limited, as the REIT manager of WHART, said WGCL is a world-class built-to-suit distribution centre leased to a leading integrated logistics service provider in the chemicals and industrial products business, with a long-term lease of up to 30 years. After the additional investment, WHART's total portfolio value will increase to more than 56 billion baht, with total leasable area of more than 2.0 million square metres, covering strategic logistics locations including Bangna-Trad, the Eastern Economic Corridor, and northern Bangkok. Ms. Jittisa Charoenpanich, an investment banking executive at Kasikornbank Public Company Limited, as financial advisor, said this capital increase is an attractive investment opportunity at a time when interest rates are trending downward, because assets that can generate consistent cash flow and returns will become more appealing. WHART has strengths from its high-quality logistics asset portfolio, strong tenant base, and a track record of continuous distributions for more than 10 years, while it has been assigned an A rating with a Stable outlook by TRIS Rating.

KGI Securities has raised its 2026 SET index target to 1,820 points after second-quarter 2026 profit for companies under its coverage came in 10% above expectations. Combined profit was 302 billion baht, up 13% from both a year earlier and the previous quarter. Excluding the energy and petrochemical sectors, however, profit fell 26% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, due to a high base from GULF's special profit in the second quarter of 2025. The research team said 40% of stocks under coverage beat earnings expectations, 41% were in line, and 20% missed. Electronics, transport, and banking delivered strong results, while tourism and media were broadly neutral. Momentum in earnings-per-share upgrades is peaking and is expected to stabilise over the rest of the year. The new target still implies 12% upside from current levels, but it is quite challenging because earnings upgrades are concentrated in the energy sector, which is cyclical and trades at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than other sectors. Stocks that still offer upside to target prices include CPALL, CPN, KBANK, KTB, and GULF.

Securities analysts at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, said they hold a mildly positive view on Kasikornbank, or KBANK, and maintained net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 53.2 billion baht and 55.7 billion baht, reflecting growth of 7% year on year and 5% year on year. Key support comes from solid growth in net fee and service income, one of the main drivers lifting net profit higher. KBANK is also expected to maintain a consistent dividend payout, with a dividend yield of 6% per year. In the first half of 2026, a dividend of 2.0 baht per share is estimated, representing a yield of 0.8%. In addition, there is a chance the bank may consider a special dividend from the remaining amount under its treasury stock buyback program. KBANK also has the capacity to manage asset quality effectively, both in controlling credit costs and managing non-performing loans. It is also one of the major commercial banks expected to benefit directly from the recovery of a new investment cycle going forward. Meanwhile, securities analysts at UBS said they raised their target price for KBANK from 255 baht to 286 baht after strong first-half 2026 results. Management also gave clear direction on its cost-to-income efficiency strategy, boosting confidence that KBANK will manage costs efficiently and sustain a high dividend payout. The research team expects KBANK to reduce its cost-to-loan ratio from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% by 2030, in line with other large domestic banks. This will be a key factor allowing KBANK to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of about 65% to 70%, or roughly 14.50 to 15.00 baht per share, over the next five years.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the global investment landscape is facing challenges on all fronts, amid a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US employment, which fuels hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate at the September meeting. Meanwhile, domestic factors are receiving a significant boost from the rapidly strengthening baht, supported by continued foreign inflows into the Thai bond market, with cumulative net purchases this month exceeding 9.2 billion baht. The baht recently touched 32.98 per US dollar. The research team has identified three main industry groups in Thailand that stand to benefit positively from the strong baht. The first group comprises large-cap stocks that are prime targets for foreign fund flows, including commercial banks such as KBANK, SCB, BBL, and KTB; retail and tourism plays like AOT, CPALL, and CRC; telecoms such as ADVANC and TRUE; and construction materials like SCC. The second group consists of companies with high foreign-currency debt or costs, including power and energy firms such as GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and PTTEP, and airlines like AAV. The third group covers businesses that rely heavily on imported raw materials, including agriculture and food companies such as TFG and TVO. In addition, the research team recommends portfolio strategies to navigate volatility, highlighting safe-haven stocks combined with gold as a hedge, and names SYNTEC, PTT, and GUNKUL as top picks for the Thai stock market, along with LITE01 and ZIJIN80 for overseas investment.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

Kingsford Securities expects the SET index to trade sideways today within a support level of 1,600 points and resistance at 1,620 to 1,630 points, awaiting the outcome of negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz and supported by strong earnings from large listed companies. The brokerage recommends gradually accumulating Value and Defensive Play stocks, naming 10 securities: KBANK, KTB, GULF, GPSC, ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, BH, BDMS, and BEM. For ADVICE, it recommends speculative buying with an IAA Consensus target price of 7.80 baht, expecting second-quarter 2026 profit to rise both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, driven by improving gross margins as IT product prices gradually increase, while robust sales of smartphones and other goods help offset the shortage of iPhones. The market forecasts 2026–2027 profit at 401 million baht, up 50% from the previous year, and 413 million baht, up 3% from the previous year. For AP, it recommends buying with an IAA Consensus target price of 9.74 baht, benefiting from the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for residential properties priced up to 7 million baht, extended until 30 June 2027. It expects second-quarter 2026 pre-sales to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supported by low-rise projects and a low base last year due to the earthquake. The market forecasts 2026 net profit at 4.62 billion baht, up 7% from the previous year, and 2027 net profit at 4.92 billion baht, up 6% from the previous year, with a forward PE of 5.6 times, PBV of 0.5 times, and dividend yield of 6.5%.

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, reported second-quarter 2026 core profit of 10.405 billion baht, up 12% from the previous quarter and 47% from a year earlier, marking a new all-time high. The result was boosted by dividend income from Kasikornbank of 2.842 billion baht. The research unit of Yuanta Securities Thailand expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 will not grow from the previous quarter due to the absence of the Kasikornbank dividend, but should still grow year-on-year. It maintains a target price of 91 baht and a buy recommendation. Meanwhile, the research unit of Asia Plus Securities notes that first-half 2026 core profit accounts for 56.7% of its full-year estimate, and keeps a target price of 80 baht with a buy rating. The research unit of Land and Houses Securities has raised its target price to 72 baht and maintained a buy recommendation, saying first-half 2026 core profit represents 72% of its full-year forecast, reflecting potential for upward estimate revisions.

Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, reported core profit for the second quarter of 2026 at 10.405 billion baht, up 12 percent from the previous quarter and 47 percent from a year earlier, after booking dividends from KBANK of 2.842 billion baht. This marks a new quarterly record for core profit. The company also booked an extraordinary gain from the disposal of its investment in the Pak Lay project of 1.928 billion baht and a foreign exchange gain of 113 million baht, bringing net profit to 12.446 billion baht. Total revenue came in at 44.5 billion baht, up 18 percent from the prior quarter and 16 percent from a year ago. Revenue from IPP power plants rose on higher dispatch, while the renewable energy business saw revenue drop 23 percent from the previous quarter because the first quarter of 2026 included a retroactive revenue booking for a Vietnam wind project. However, revenue was up 80 percent from a year earlier, thanks to a 597-megawatt Solar plus BESS project that began commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2025. Gross profit stood at 7.354 billion baht, down 9 percent from the prior quarter. Excluding the 636 million baht retroactive revenue from the Vietnam wind project, gross profit would have declined only slightly, due to the impact of higher natural gas prices on SPP power plants. SG&A expenses rose 81 percent from the previous quarter and 47 percent from a year earlier to 1.713 billion baht, mainly because of a one-time restructuring expense in Oman of about 500 million baht. Yuanta Securities expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to be flat from the second quarter, as there will be no dividend from KBANK, but still higher than a year ago, supported by the Solar plus BESS project, the high season for GGC, and a growing profit contribution from ADVANC, which is expected to increase every quarter. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 times for 2026 and 29 times for 2027, not yet factoring in opportunities from the Power Development Plan and data centers. The company expects clarity on a hyperscale data center investment of about 500 megawatts this year. Yuanta maintains a target price of 91.00 baht and a buy recommendation.

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, reported second-quarter 2569 net profit rose 36.5 percent from the previous quarter to 12.4 billion baht, slightly above market expectations. The result was supported by core profit increasing 32.2 percent from the prior quarter to 12.3 billion baht, a record quarterly high, driven by higher dividend income of 2.8 billion baht following the main dividend payment cycle of Kasikornbank, as well as other income surging 240.5 percent from the previous quarter to 2.2 billion baht, mainly from a 1.9 billion baht gain on the sale of a 51 percent stake in the Pak Lay power plant. Overall electricity sales volumes also rose from both IPP and SPP power plants as the government called for more power during the summer. However, pressure came from weaker margins at SPP plants due to higher natural gas costs, and a slight dip in profit share from associates as wind power plants saw lower wind speeds and SPP plants posted lower profits, even though profit share from ADVANC, Jackson, and PTTNGD increased. The analyst team maintained its full-year 2569 core profit forecast at 38 billion baht, up 32 percent from the previous year, and kept a buy rating with a year-end 2570 target price of 80 baht.

Mae Thong Suk Central Company Limited, a subsidiary of MTS Gold, has issued and offered the MTS Gold Investment Token, a digital token referencing the gold trading business for the first time in Thailand. It provides a fixed return of 3% per annum over the 3-year project term, with the opportunity to receive a bonus profit share from gold price appreciation at maturity, and the initial investment is returned upon maturity. The subscription price is 1,000 baht per token, with a minimum investment of 10,000 baht. Retail investors are limited to a subscription cap of 300,000 baht per person, while high-net-worth and institutional investors face no limit. Allocation is on a first-come, first-served basis via the kubix and orbix applications of Kubix Digital Asset Company Limited, under the Orbix Group of Kasikornbank. Subscriptions are open until 31 August.

Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, is on track to post a new record high for core profit in the second quarter of 2026, with analysts forecasting core profit of 11.5 to 11.8 billion baht, a significant increase from both the same period last year and the previous quarter. Key drivers include the recognition of dividends from KBANK of approximately 2.8 billion baht, a gain from the sale of an investment in the Pak Lay hydropower project worth around 1.8 billion baht, and a growing share of profit from associates such as ADVANC. The large-scale power plant business also saw improved performance amid higher electricity demand during the hot season. Krungsri Securities has a target price of 74 baht, Kasikorn Securities 79 baht, Asia Plus Securities 80 baht, and Yuanta Securities the highest target at 91 baht, noting that GULF has an advantage in expanding its data center and AI businesses thanks to its ready land, power plants, and IT infrastructure.

Krungsri Securities views Thai equities as having positive signals from Thailand becoming an AI investment hub and the Federal Reserve likely holding interest rates steady, setting an index target of 1,600 to 1,680 points and selecting eight standout stocks in banking, power plants, tourism, and other sectors. Mr. Korrapat Vorachet, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Research at Krungsri Securities, said Thailand is being seen as a new strategic location for AI infrastructure investment in the region, with advantages from sufficient reserve power generation capacity, competitive land costs, and utilities ready to support data centers. Meanwhile, the Fed may choose to patiently hold interest rates rather than hike aggressively amid fragile signals in the US labor market, which would be positive for Asian stock markets and value-market segments. The research team maintains its index target at 1,600 to 1,680 points, expecting the market to gradually recover and have a chance to revise earnings estimates upward after the second-quarter results pass. Recommended standout stocks include KBANK and KTB in the banking group, where prices are still below book value; GULF and GPSC in the power plant group to support electricity demand from data centers; PTT and SCC, which benefit from a new wave of investment; and AOT and BH in the tourism and healthcare group, helped by lower oil cost pressures and the return of Chinese tourists.

CGSI assesses listed-company earnings for the second quarter of 2026, with the petrochemical sector driving growth while the communication and tourism sectors may disappoint. The firm maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points and selects BH, PR9, THAI, ERW, CRC, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR as top picks. The research team notes that the non-bank sector will see net profit decline 14 percent year-on-year and 7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. The petrochemical sector is likely to be supported by higher spreads, while the transport sector, especially airlines, tends to weaken due to rising fuel costs stemming from the situation in the Middle East. In addition, the ICT and tourism sectors face risks of disappointment, as Bloomberg consensus estimates of strong net profit growth of 26 percent year-on-year for ICT and 15 percent year-on-year for tourism are unlikely to materialize amid a still-weak economy and a 4 percent year-on-year drop in foreign tourist arrivals. Tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices have caused Thailand to face twin deficits, with a trade deficit of 12.4 billion US dollars and a current account deficit of 13.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2026. Elevated oil prices also increase the risk of government price intervention, which would pressure margins for downstream oil and gas businesses and could push inflation higher in the second half of 2026. While the Bank of Thailand views current inflation as likely temporary, the research team believes the central bank will not raise interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, 2026. Regarding the Senate election collusion case, the Election Commission expects to conclude the investigation by the end of August, but the timeline may be extended. The most likely scenario is that charges will be filed against only some individuals, which would negatively affect market sentiment, and the broader legal proceedings would take longer than before. The SET currently trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, but this drops to 14 times when excluding DELTA, which has a forward P/E of 83 times. CGSI maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points. Positive factors that could support the market include an easing of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices, while downside risks are the Election Commission filing charges against key politicians from coalition parties and a sharp slowdown in tourist arrivals.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul witnessed the renaming ceremony of Maspion Bank to PT Bank Kasikorn Indonesia Tbk, which received approval from Indonesia's Financial Services Authority on 13 July 2026. This rebranding follows Kasikornbank, through its subsidiaries, increasing its stake in Maspion Bank to 89.48 percent in 2025, reflecting Thai business confidence in Indonesia's economic potential and marking a significant step for a Thai financial institution in expanding its regional role. On the same day, four memoranda of understanding were signed between Thai and Indonesian agencies, covering economic cooperation, tourism, and carbon markets.

Supalai Public Company Limited, or SPALI, has successfully offered debentures worth a total of 4 billion baht, with institutional investor subscriptions exceeding the offering value by 2 times. Ms. Siriporn Wangsapha, Assistant Managing Director of Accounting and Finance, revealed that this success reflects investor confidence in the company's strong financial position. The debentures offered are divided into two tranches. The first tranche is worth 2 billion baht, with a tenor of 1 year and 6 months, and a discount rate of 1.54% per annum. The second tranche is worth 2 billion baht, with a tenor of 2 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and a discount rate of 1.82% per annum. These are registered, unsubordinated, unsecured debentures without a debenture holder representative, offered through Kasikornbank and UOB. The company has received a corporate credit rating of A with a stable outlook from TRIS Rating for the 12th consecutive year.

Tisco Securities has raised its 2026 target for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to 1,670 points from 1,600 points, viewing the Thai stock market as a safe haven amid Middle East tensions and supported by improving economic fundamentals. It recommends overweight positions in banking, transport, healthcare, and tourism sectors in the second half of the year. The Tisco Economic and Strategy Analysis Centre has revised its GDP forecast for next year to 2.1 percent from 1.7 percent, after the Constitutional Court ruled that the 400 billion baht emergency loan decree is constitutional, allowing the inclusion of the impact from the latter 200 billion baht loan for energy transition in the estimates. The new SET Index target of 1,670 points is based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 times and SET earnings per share for 2026 and 2027 of 88.4 baht and 95.0 baht, respectively. For August, five-year and ten-year historical data show the SET Index has a 70 to 80 percent chance of closing positive, with average returns of 1.5 to 2.9 percent, supported by seasonal speculative buying around second-quarter earnings announcements, expectations of interim dividends, and the Thailand Focus event in late August, which historically has helped the SET Index rise in the two weeks following the event with a nearly 70 percent chance of a positive close and an average return of 1.4 percent. Top stock picks for August are CENTEL, COM7, CPN, GULF, KBANK, KTB, and PTT, with support levels at 1,570 and 1,540 points and resistance at 1,630 to 1,640 and 1,660 points. For foreign investment via depositary receipts, TENCENT80 and TRIPCOM80 are recommended.

Krungsri Securities expects the SET index to move sideways to up today, with resistance at 1,629 and 1,635 points and support at 1,615 and 1,610 points. The market is supported by the US manufacturing PMI, which came in higher than expected, boosting global investment momentum. In addition, second-quarter 2026 earnings of Thai listed companies exceeded forecasts, leading to upward revisions of full-year earnings estimates to 101.8 to 101.9 baht per share and driving the SET higher in this cycle. The research team also noted that the Thai stock market is not expensive, based on an earnings yield gap as high as 3.75 percent. They recommended three investment themes: investment-theme stocks such as GULF and KBANK, stocks benefiting from government stimulus measures like GLOBAL, and stocks expected to recover over the next year.

Analysts at UOB Kay Hian Securities Thailand have raised their target price for KBANK shares to 285 baht from 260 baht, while maintaining a buy recommendation. The revision follows an upward adjustment of net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 3.5 percent, 2.7 percent, and 2.6 percent respectively, reflecting strong second-quarter 2026 results. Management reaffirmed a minimum dividend payout policy of 50 percent, and 50 to 60 percent over the medium term. The bank is expected to have room to increase the payout ratio or pay a special dividend in the future, given a share buyback program worth 3.48 billion baht out of a total budget of 8.8 billion baht, representing 40 percent of the budget, and a price-to-book ratio near 1.0 times. On the lending front, management indicated that loan growth in 2026 is likely to be at the upper end or slightly above target. In the second quarter of 2026, there was demand for working capital loans from large corporate clients. Although some loan repayments are expected in the second half, the bank remains confident of achieving its loan growth target and will focus on increasing the proportion of large corporate loans.

Krungsri Securities says True IDC is in talks to borrow around two billion US dollars, or about 67 billion baht, to invest in a new data centre on the outskirts of Bangkok, according to a Bloomberg report. The research team estimates the sum represents 0.35 percent of GDP and will be positive for the Thai stock market, as well as stocks in related investment themes. Among the groups expected to benefit first are banks KBANK and KTB, contractors STECON, PYLON, and INSET, along with TRUE as a company within the same group.

Pi Securities assesses that eight commercial banks will pay high interim dividends, with the full-year average dividend yield for the banking group expected at 5.7%, excluding special dividends. Thanadech Rungsrithananon, Director of Research at Pi Securities, notes that SCB, KKP, and TISCO will have dividend yields of no less than 6%. SCB is expected to pay 10.42 baht per share for the full year, representing 6.8%. KKP is expected to pay 7.50 baht per share, representing 6.3%. TISCO is expected to pay 7.75 baht per share, representing 6%. For BBL, despite a decline in profit, it is still expected to pay the same 10 baht per share for the full year, representing 5.3%. KBANK is expected to pay 12 baht per share for the full year, representing 5.1%. Meanwhile, KTB is expected to pay 2.09 baht per share, representing 5%. TTB is expected to pay 0.13 baht per share, representing 4.6%. CREDIT is expected to pay 1.05 baht per share, representing 4.5%. BAY is expected to pay 1.40 baht per share, representing 3.5%. Regarding the profit trend for the second half of the year, Thanadech views that if capital market income is excluded, profits will not be spectacular, as net interest margins are starting to stabilize and loans may rise slightly in line with private sector investment.

Senior executives of large private sector organizations say that after Thailand's political situation stabilized, foreign investor confidence has begun to recover, reflected in capital inflows, a recovering capital market, and rising investment promotion applications, especially in the electric vehicle and data center industries. The chief executive officer of Kasikornbank said that investment promotion application figures from the BOI have grown very strongly, but the key challenge is to translate this into employment, workforce skill development, and leveraging data to create new innovations. The president of SCG pointed out that SMEs in the supply chain face greater difficulty accessing capital and technology, have higher financing costs, and have fewer opportunities for trial and error compared to large companies. Therefore, the government and large corporations must work together to upgrade Thai SMEs, including reducing energy costs, adopting solar power, and transitioning to green businesses. An advisor to the prime minister said that energy is a critical condition for confidence and national competitiveness, and Thailand must manage security, environmental sustainability, and affordable prices for the public, while advancing solar power, smart grids, and clean energy to support the net-zero target and new industries such as data centers.

The Thai stock market during 27 to 31 July 2026 fell below 1,600 points before buyback orders came in to support the market. DELTA was the main drag after its second-quarter 2026 earnings came in below expectations. Analysts downgraded the stock to Reduce and cut the target price to 244 baht from 265 baht, after lowering 2026 to 2027 profit forecasts to reflect gross margin pressure from higher raw material costs. On the supportive side, hyperscaler earnings continued to show strong investment momentum, and other sectors helped steady the market. CPN surged on expectations of second-quarter 2026 net profit of 4.5 billion baht, up 4 percent year-on-year, while banking stocks such as KBANK and KTB were supported by the investment cycle.

The Thai stock market opened the morning session down 9.86 points, in line with global equity markets, with selling in technology stocks led by DELTA amid war concerns, while buying in GULF and KBANK helped support the market. At 10:00 a.m., the index stood at 1,614.61 points, with turnover of 8.26 billion baht, and continued to fall to 1,601.70 points, down 22.77 points or 1.40 percent, by 10:07 a.m. DELTA shares dropped 12 baht, or 4.21 percent, to 273 baht, while GULF added 0.50 baht to 65.75 baht and KBANK gained 3.00 baht to 245.00 baht. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the index to fluctuate in negative territory, with key support at around 1,610 points, from selling in electronics and tech-AI sectors, while commodity groups are expected to help cushion the market as oil prices hold above 90 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in a hawkish hold, and investors are watching US second-quarter 2026 GDP, PCE inflation, and personal income and spending data, which will be key factors for near-term market direction.

Krungsri Securities expects the SET index to fluctuate within a range today, with resistance at 1,633 and 1,640 points and support at 1,614 and 1,607 points. Investment sentiment is tilted to the negative side as the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high in the one-year zone at 4.67%, after Iran attacked US bases in the Middle East and President Trump threatened severe retaliation. This has kept crude oil prices above 90 dollars per barrel this morning. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meeting held rates steady as expected but revealed a split in views. Krungsri Securities puts more weight on rates staying on hold rather than rising, assessing that the war has passed its peak but the US economy and labor sector remain fragile. Positive factors for the Thai stock market come from the energy and banking sectors, as well as advances in Chinese chip technology that are accelerating AI adoption and benefiting Thailand as a hub for digital infrastructure investment. Recommended standout stocks include PTT, KBANK, and GULF.

Commercial bank stocks that have risen quickly and strongly, with KBANK and KTB hitting new highs, are still not considered too expensive. Analysts view that foreign capital inflows reflect their intrinsic value, after the banking sector had long traded below book value. Mr. Kawee Chookijkasem, Chief Investment Officer at Pie Securities, stated that current bank share prices have risen to levels that better reflect true value. Investors should consider future growth potential, as investment in new economic infrastructure such as data centers attracts foreign direct investment, bringing foreign investors back to large, highly liquid SET50 stocks like BBL, KBANK, KTB, and SCB. Ms. Usanee Liurut, Senior Director of Securities Analysis at Finansia Syrus Securities, revealed that the commercial banking sector has proven its sustained profitability even with modest loan growth, with non-interest income, foreign exchange gains, and wealth management businesses compensating. Moreover, improved asset quality management has kept NPLs and credit costs from becoming heavy burdens. Currently, most bank stocks trade at around one times price-to-book value, with room to rise in line with earnings growth, supported by government investment, economic stimulus policies, and substantial FDI with BOI applications. Meanwhile, a stable policy rate outlook eases funding cost pressures. If rates rise, large banks with high liquidity like BBL and KTB would benefit from better net interest margins. The investment strategy remains market-weight on banks, with top picks being BBL and KTB. As for TISCO, it acknowledges that 2026 loans may be flat due to impacts from Middle East conflicts and energy prices, so it is shifting focus toward fee income from insurance and capital market fees.

The Thai stock market closed the morning session at 1,632.48 points, down 11.91 points or 0.72%, with trading value of 53.83 billion baht. The main pressure came from DELTA shares, which fell 5.86% after reporting lower-than-expected second-quarter profit, dragging the SET index down by as much as 17.73 points. Meanwhile, buying interest in BBL, AOT, KBANK, and MINT helped cushion the index. Dao Securities Thailand assessed the afternoon trend, expecting the index to fluctuate in a narrow range with a downward bias, setting support at 1,626 to 1,629 points and resistance at 1,636 to 1,638 points.