GCAP Co., Ltd., or GCAP GOLD, says the US central bank's meeting on September 15-16 will be a key factor shaping the next direction for gold prices, with investors needing to watch especially the release of the Dot Plot and the Fed chair's remarks. Areerat Murachai, chief analyst at GCAP GOLD, said that if the Fed raises interest rates as the market expects but does not signal further hikes, gold prices have room to recover. But if the Dot Plot still leaves the door open to another rate increase, particularly at the December meeting, that could push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which would in turn pressure gold prices in the short term. On the economic front, the August consumer price index rose 0.4% from the previous month, while Core CPI rose 0.3%, reflecting inflation pressures that still warrant caution. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East after a drone attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia forced a temporary halt to operations, along with reports of a ship being attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, are adding to risks for energy prices and the inflation outlook. The GCAP GOLD analysis team puts this week's gold price range at 4,200 to 4,435 dollars, and advises watching the key support level around 4,280 dollars, or roughly 67,000 baht for Thai gold. If that level holds and a base is built, there is a chance to test 4,400 dollars, or roughly 68,500 baht for Thai gold. But if it breaks below that support, they recommend waiting to reassess a new base around 4,225 to 4,200 dollars, or roughly 65,900 baht for Thai gold.
G Capital Public Company LimitedGCAP Gold's own analyst flags the Fed meeting and Dot Plot as key to gold's next move, with CPI and Middle East risks shaping the outlook.
